Friday, February 26, 2016

Financial Astrology - February 29, 2016

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SP500
This post will be a little shorter than normal as I'm working on the subscribers March report.
For the SP500, cycle-wise Feb 11 looks like the Primary cycle trough.  1 that started on Aug 24th. Feb 11th was a slightly lower low than Jan 20th low. Feb 11th should start a new nominal 18 week cycle and we are entering the 3rd week.

My outlook is bearish going into the Spring due to the Astrological aspects being formed, namely the Saturn / Neptune square and the Jupiter / Saturn square. There are others. The Saturn / Pluto square is still in orb but will soon be fading. March through June of 2016 looks troublesome and bearish. I'm looking for two lows from now into June with one of the lows coinciding with the current nominal 18 week cycle.  

Currently the 18 week cycle trough would be the week of June 13 +- 3 weeks so the range is the week of May 23rd to the week of July 4th.

The nominal 18 week cycle is only 3 weeks along and under normal circumstances would be bullish, at least the most bullish part of the cycle. Primary cycles are the most bullish in the early part of a cycle and usually get a rally.

The rise off the Feb 11 low is just what we would expect Price is now above the 15 day sma and 45 day sma and the 15 day sma is curling up. The 45 day average is the 1/2 cycle to the 90 day or 18 week and the 15 day average is the 1/2 cycle to the 30 day or 6 week.

The length of the rally is what I'm looking for. If bearish this cycle should be left translated, that is the crest should occur in the first 1/2 of the cycle. Also remember our comments that near the start of a new Primary cycle we often get a pullback in the 2nd or 3rd week which gives traders an opportunity to buy what is usually the most bullish part of the cycle. This doesn't do so well when we are in a bear market as the crest may be left translated and right around the corner. Feb 24th could have been that pullback and it was brief.

I'm expecting a volatile environment in the markets. I'm also expecting geophysical events, possible violent weather and potential terrorist event. Watch the first couple of weeks of March and again in mid-April. Mars leaves Scorpio, where it has given Gold a huge thrust and enters Sagittarius on March 5. This results in both Mars and Saturn in Sagittarius , a signature for a religious war or the amplification of one. Water may be a problem,too much in some areas, none in others.  Let's see if this makes the news.



I believe we are close to longer term cycle bottoms, both the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle, 3.3 years (or 40 months) if it didn't occur on Feb 11th.

I'll be watching the U.S.A financial system closely in follow up to the video from last week. This should be a long process. Note in the video the last similar occurrence took almost one year to see an effect.

See the following VIDEO. From Last Week


From last weeks blog:
"We also have a Full Moon in Virgo, a mutable sign, on Feb 22nd, which has been present at short term market turns and big range days."

The Sun conjunct Neptune on Feb 28th is often a confusing time where there maybe a sense that things are getting better or bad and getting worse. In short a poor realization of what is really happening. This transit has a strong correlation to turns in the Primary cycle but it would be difficult to imagine a crest so early in the cycle.

Sun conjunct Neptune also has a history of crests in Gold +- 2 tds and a move down thereafter.

Heliocentric Mercury leaves Sagittarius on Feb 26th. We saw large price swings in the US indices and Gold.

The month of March has two eclipses, a Total Solar Eclipse on March 8th and a Lunar Eclipse on March 23rd. These are powerful events. Details are reserved for subscribers.
Following is the Total Solar Eclipse.



With the longer term market cycles we use the Astrological aspects and Astro events to determine a more exact time. Longer term geocentric Astrological cycles include:

Uranus waning square Pluto
- passed the exact but still in orb (1 degree). This square will slowly dissipate over this year.
Remember what this square is about.
"This aspect has a historical association between anarchic uprisings and problems   with debt and Banks. The debt issue will have major negative consequences for all financial markets.

Other events associated with this square are protest movements, social unrest and perhaps mob violence. Tax revolts fit in as well. The square is about tearing down         the old structures (governments, financial institutions) and building anew.            Although Uranus is about sudden change and surprises, Pluto is about long term changes that will not be undone. It is ruthless in it’s force to change the status quo. We are only 1 degree away from the exact Uranus and Pluto square."

Jupiter waning square Saturn
- in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"The business cycle and direct effect on European history. Major changes will be occurring in Europe as result of the refuge migration. There is a major sign change coming up when Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct in 2020. More on this 240 year conjunction in a future post."
           
Saturn square Neptune
-in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"This aspect is often present near times when there is a change in trend for interest rates or inflation. It can also be a period of epidemics, pandemics suffering, depression and money valuation problems. This could be a change in the world's reserve currency or issues around it. A large increase in precious metals is also possible as it is a money valuation issue. This 36 year aspect has been associated with political changes, reforms and development of socialism. One wonders in regards to epidemics and sickness, would this be natural illnesses or man-made." If you feel depressed or not at ease this aspect may be the cause. One of these planets may be hitting a planet in your horoscope.

On the following weekly chart of the DJIA, the red squares are Jupiter square Saturn and the green squares are Saturn square Neptune. The two lows mentioned above should be completed by the last green square.



For 2016 we have Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and the North Node in mutable signs. In addition both Solar eclipses are in mutable signs. Mutable signs are about flexibility and the ability or need to change. They are also about things that are not in control and extremes.

Saturn is in Sagittarius which rules the law, religion, philosophy and science. With the square to Neptune is a good signal for a religious message that gets perverted. Time for change to judicial systems? It's a time period where things seem depressing. With Mars joining Saturn in Sagittarius on March 5th watch for a pickup in current hostilities.

Charts we have not shown for awhile. The first 3 charts are daily charts of the SP500, the Russell 2000 and the NYSE. The horizontal blue lines are the average longitude of the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto on all 3 charts This average is converted to price and displayed on the charts. Notice how well they have acted as support and resistance. The SP500 may hit resistance close to 1968. The next level is 2013.





The other chart we haven't shown for a while is this Fan which started on March 6, 2009 at the low. The dark blue line has acted as support most of the way up. It is the 50% line or 45 degrees. The red line we have just touched is 61.8%. It hasn't been touched since Oct. 2011. The black vertical lines are 512 cd's (calendar days) which next falls on March 9, within one day away from a powerful Total Solar Eclipse. March 8, 9 may be powerful days in the markets. I'm not discounting a geophysical or severe weather  event during this time period.



Other longer term cycles that may be close to seeing their lows in the next couple of months are the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle (40 months). Kitchin may have hit it's trough on Feb 11th. I'm looking at the period from now through the spring of 2016 as a potential time period for these cycles. They are long term cycles and need a broad orb.

Following is the Kitchin cycle on the SP500 chart. This is a monthly chart. The Kitchin cycle is 1/4 of the synodic Jupiter / Uranus cycle.



Other long term cycle due, including the 6.5 - 7 year.



The following weekly chart shows the 21 and 34 weekly moving averages and the fact price broke through both averages Also the 21 and 34 week moving averages are pointing down.

The question is, do we have a significant low in front of us. At this point I think yes.  I'm thinking potentially deeper in the spring time frame in 2016.



"What everyone is looking for, is what is looking."
-- St. Francis of Assisi

Gold
Gold put in a  nominal 18 week cycle   1 trough on Dec 3rd. 2015 which has marked an important low.

This puts us entering the 13th week of the Primary cycle and entering the 7th week of the 2nd nominal 6 week cycle during this coming week. The nominal 6 week cycle has a range of 5 to 7 weeks.

From last weeks blog:
"We may be near the peak of this cycle."

Feb 11 looks like it was the peak of the cycle. I'm now looking for Gold to trend down into the nominal 18 week cycle trough which should be late March or early April.

As we've mentioned before Mars in Scorpio often results in big moves in Gold both up and down. Mars entered Scorpio on Jan 3, 2016 and will leave Scorpio for Sagittarius on March 5, 2016. Due to retrograde motion Mars will be back in Scorpio later in the year, May 27th in fact, 1 day after a Jupiter / Saturn square.

In addition to Mars in Scorpio heliocentric Mercury entered Sagittarius on
Feb 15th and will leave Sagittarius on Feb 26th, the date mentioned in the video above under the SP500. We often see large price moves when Mercury is in Sagittarius in stocks and particularly precious metals. Will this time period end the sharp move in Gold?   Watch the fib retracements on the following chart for both support and resistance areas. I'm looking for a move down into the Primary cycle low over the next few weeks. This could be a shortened Primary cycle.

Following is a daily chart for Gold/ The blue x's show Mars in Scorpio. The red x's show heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius.



In addition the following is a daily Gold chart showing price is still above the 15 day sma. I'm looking for Gold to break below the 15 day sma quite possibly by late next week. Note the two indicators, Momentum is pointed down and MACD is rolling over.



From last weeks blog post:
"It also has a 14 cd cycle you can see in the bottom right area of the chart (orange vertical lines). If active it hits Feb 25th. Watch for Gold pullback. All dates are +- 2 td's at a minimum."

I'm expecting a bigger move in Gold later in the year, possibly at the end of this Primary cycle which may also be a 17 month cycle low. The move should be up. Subscribers have the potential dates.

The price lines on the following daily Gold chart take the longitudinal position of the planet and converts it to price. Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) have provided good support and resistance. Gold peaked above the blue Jupiter price line and now moved down through the green Venus price line. I expect Gold to move below the Venus price line next week and possibly through the next blue Jupiter price line.



Crude
Feb 11 had another lower low and is now marked a Primary cycle trough which has us staring the 3rd week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. Bear in mind there are geopolitical issues affecting crude which can effect the price quickly and directly. With the comments above under the SP500 Mars will be entering Sagittarius and joining Saturn there on March 5th. This is a war like configuration and being Sagittarius it would not be surprising if religion was involved. This could also be pointing to a terrorist event.

I've been looking for Astrological aspects that hit Jupiter or Neptune. Both are co-rulers of crude. There is one on Feb 28th when the Sun conjuncts Neptune. This is particularly powerful as Neptune is in Pisces, the sign that it rules.

Many commodities and financials should be affected by the Saturn / Neptune waning square this year. This is a 3 pass with the last 2 occurring mid-Year and then September 2016. This is a 36 year cycle so looking back 36 years we had severe problems with the lack of crude and interest rates went over 20%. Things are never the same, but often close as we now have an abundance of crude and very low (negative?) interest rates approximately 36 years later. These longer term aspects color a period of history rather than a day, week or month.

Looking at the crude chart we see a Primary cycle low now on Feb 11. The last cycle is an example of a left translated cycle with the crest forming closer to the beginning trough. Left translated cycles are bearish, they simply spend more time going down than moving up. After 7 years of QE in the U.S. and loose monetary policy we haven't seen many left translated cycles for some time.

It appears we are now in the 3rd week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. I've mentioned before when a Primary cycle trough is formed it is usually bullish and we typically get a short dip cycle 2 - 3 weeks after the 18 week cycle trough. This gives traders the opportunity to get in if they missed the original trough. In this market this is a good strategy as the 18 week low could be lower a number of times as we wait for geopolitical events to unfold.

Any type of armed conflict which affects ships, docks or blocking shipping lanes could quickly move crude prices.





Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?

The 1st half 2016 dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in Jan) are available for purchase.


Saturday, February 20, 2016

Financial Astrology - February 22, 2016

 - Our first half 2016 forecast dates are available
                      - Subscriptions include the forecast dates and a monthly Market letter with                          eMail alerts for imminent trading opportunities
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Our posts are now reported on the highly regarded FXStreet.com.

SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise Feb 11 looks like the Primary cycle trough.  1 that started on Aug 24th. Feb 11th was a slightly lower low than Jan 20th low. Feb 11th should start a new 18 week cycle and we are entering the 2nd week.

We are already bearish just due to the fact that Feb 11 is lower than the previous 18 week cycle low on Aug 24, 2015. However, double bottoms, and we have one here, are normally bullish so the charts aren't being helpful, giving both bearish and bullish indications.

My outlook is bearish going into the Spring due to the Astrological aspects being formed, namely the Saturn / Neptune square and the Jupiter / Saturn square. There are others. The Saturn / Pluto square is still in orb but will soon be fading. March through June of 2016 looks troublesome and bearish. I'm looking for a lower low in that time frame.

Although I'm bearish the SP500 just put in a nominal 18 week cycle low. Primary cycles are the most bullish in the early part of a cycle and usually get a rally. The length of the rally is what I'm looking for. If bearish this cycle should be left translated, that is the crest should occur in the first 1/2 of the cycle. Also remember our comments that near the start of a new Primary cycle we often get a pullback in the 2nd or 3rd week which gives traders an opportunity to buy what is usually the most bullish part of the cycle. This doesn't do so well when we are in a bear market as the crest may be left translated and right around the corner.

Please note; with the many heavy Astrological transits and events coming up we may have a distorted Primary cycle. I'm expecting a volatile environment in the markets. I'm also expecting geophysical events, possible violent weather and potential terrorist event. Watch the first couple of weeks of March and again in mid-April. Water may be a problem. Too much in some areas, none in others. Let's see if this makes the news.



From last week:
"In our cycle work we use td (trading days) and cd (calendar day) cycles. Feb 5th was
180 td's from the "All Time High" on May 20, 2015 at 2134.72.  This is basic GANN work which we'll use many times. The 180 td cycle from a high often results in a low 180 td's later and vice versa."

I believe we are close to longer term cycle bottoms, both the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle, 3.3 years (or 40 months).

Before we get to that low there may be a financial event around Feb, 26th. This is an Astrological event which marks the start of a time period where there could be major changes to the U.S.'s financial system. This is a long term event, although we could see some effects around Feb 26 this should be +- a few of months and it's long term effect over years. Whatever changes that occur to the financial system will not be undone. Listen to the financial news closely for a few weeks both before and after the end of  Feb. 2016. Decisions made in this time period may have longer term implications.  Is this the reason for the sudden interest in Gold? The video has more information.

See the following VIDEO. From Last Week Possibly Important


The Astrological geocentric transits are fairly minor this week with the exception of Jupiter opposition to Chiron on Feb 23rd and the Sun conjunct Neptune on Feb 28th. We also have a Full Moon in Virgo, a mutable sign, on Feb 22nd, which has been present at short term market turns both up and down and big range days. The Sun conjunct Neptune is often a confusing time where there maybe a sense that things are getting better or bad and getting worse. In short a poor realization of what is really happening. This transit has a strong correlation to turns in the Primary cycle but it would be difficult to imagine a crest so early in the cycle. There is also the possible event on Feb 26th, see the video. Feb 23 also has a 192 td non-Astrological cycle. Give this the usual +- 2 td's.

In addition there is a heliocentric aspect of Mars opposing Uranus on Feb 26th. This has a history of volatile market moves near this transit. Mentioned last week we have heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius from Feb 15th to Feb 26th. We often see large price moves when helio Mercury is in Sagittarius in stocks and particularly precious metals.

With the sharp market moves, up and down, we should consider one or more of the longer term cycles are coming down to enter their trough. Note the longer term charts we have shown for many months, specifically the Kitchin cycle (40 months) and the 6.5- 7 year cycle. The longer term cycles typically pull everything down with them. This can be a process that takes a number of months. They can also distort the normal rhythm of the 18 week cycle. I'm looking in the April / May time frame for a more significant low.

With these longer term cycles we use the Astrological aspects and Astro events to determine a more exact time. Longer term geocentric Astrological cycles include:

Uranus waning square Pluto
- passed the exact but still in orb (1 degree). This square will slowly dissipate over this year.
Remember what this square is about.
"This aspect has a historical association between anarchic uprisings and problems   with debt and Banks. The debt issue will have major negative consequences for all financial markets.

Other events associated with this square are protest movements, social unrest and perhaps mob violence. Tax revolts fit in as well. The square is about tearing down the old structures (governments, financial institutions) and building anew.Although Uranus is about sudden change and surprises, Pluto is about long term changes that will not be undone. It is ruthless in it’s force to change the status quo. We are only 1 degree away from the exact Uranus and Pluto square."

Jupiter waning square Saturn
- in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"The business cycle and direct effect on European history. Major changes will be occurring in Europe as result of the refuge migration. There is a major sign change coming up when Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct in 2020. More on this 240 year conjunction in a future post."
           
Saturn square Neptune
-in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"This aspect is often present near times when there is a change in trend for interest rates or inflation. It can also be a period of epidemics, pandemics suffering, depression and money valuation problems. This could be a change in the world's reserve currency or issues around it. A large increase in precious metals is also possible as it is a money valuation issue. This 36 year aspect has been associated with political changes, reforms and development of socialism. One wonders in regards to epidemics and sickness, would this be natural illnesses or man-made." If you feel depressed or not at ease this aspect may be the cause. One of these planets may be hitting a planet in your horoscope.

On the following weekly chart of the DJIA, the red squares are Jupiter square Saturn. An ideal spot for a significant low would be between the last 2 red squares at March 23rd to May 26th. Note the green squares also. These are the Saturn / Neptune exact squares and the middle square is very close to the last Jupiter / Saturn square. Saturn is the common planet here. Among other things Saturn is fear.



For 2016 we have Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and the North Node in mutable signs. In addition both Solar eclipses are in mutable signs. Mutable signs are about flexibility and the ability or need to change. They are also about things that are not in control and extremes.

As mentioned, the month of March will have 2 eclipses, a Solar eclipse on March 8 (really the 9th) and a Lunar eclipse on March 23rd. The details of these important events will be included in the March monthly subscribers letter. Following is the Total Solar Eclipse of March 8-9. Eclipses are strong, important events. They effect the whole world.



Saturn is in Sagittarius which rules the law, religion, philosophy and science. With the square to Neptune is a good signal for a religious message that gets perverted. Time for change to judicial systems? It's a time period where things seem depressing.

Charts we have not shown for awhile. The first 3 charts are daily charts of the SP500, the Russell 2000 and the NYSE. The horizontal blue lines are the average longitude of the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto on all 3 charts This average is converted to price and displayed on the charts. Notice how well they have acted as support and resistance. The SP500 stopped near the 1923 resistance. Will it make it to 1968 for the crest?





The other chart we haven't shown for a while is this Fan which started on March 6, 2009 at the low. The dark blue line has acted as support most of the way up. It is the 50% line or 45 degrees. The red line we have just touched is 61.8%. It hasn't been touched since Oct. 2011. The black vertical lines are 512 cd's (calendar days) which next falls on March 9, within one day away from a powerful Total Solar Eclipse. March 8, 9 may be powerful days. I'm not discounting a geophysical event during this time period.



Other longer term cycles that may be close to seeing their lows in the next couple of months are the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle (40 months). I'm looking at the period from now through the spring of 2016 as a potential time period for these cycles. They are long term cycles and need a broad orb.

Following is the Kitchin cycle on the SP500 chart. This is a monthly chart. The Kitchin cycle is 1/4 of the synodic Jupiter / Uranus cycle.



Other long term cycle due, including the 6.5 - 7 year.



The following weekly chart shows the 21 and 34 weekly moving averages and the fact price broke through both averages Also the 21 and 34 week moving averages are pointing down.

The question is, do we have a significant low in front of us. At this point I think yes.  I'm thinking potentially deeper in the spring time frame in 2016.



“The future influences the present just as much as the past.”
-- Friedrich Nietzsche

Gold
Gold put in a  nominal 18 week cycle   1 trough on Dec 3rd. 2015 which has marked an important low.

This puts us entering the 12th week of the Primary cycle and entering the 6th week of the 2nd nominal 6 week cycle during this coming week. The nominal 6 week cycle has a range of 5 to 7 weeks. We may be near the peak of this cycle.

As we've mentioned before Mars in Scorpio often results in big moves in Gold both up and down. Mars entered Scorpio on Jan 3, 2016 and will leave Scorpio for Sagittarius on March 5, 2016. Due to retrograde motion Mars will be back in Scorpio later in the year, May 27th in fact, 1 day after a Jupiter / Saturn square.

In addition to Mars in Scorpio heliocentric Mercury entered Sagittarius on Feb 15th and will leave Sagittarius on Feb 26th, the date mentioned in the video above under the SP500. We often see large price moves when Mercury is in Sagittarius in stocks and particularly precious metals. Will this time period end the sharp move in Gold?   Watch the fib retracements on the following chart for both support and resistance areas. I'm looking for a high near Feb 25, 26 and then down to the Primary cycle low over the next few weeks. This could be a shortened Primary cycle.



The high so far was Feb 11th the same day the SP500 made it's Primary cycle low.
The following daily chart for Gold shows recent price action with the heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius (red x's). It also has a 14 cd cycle you can see in the bottom right area of the chart (orange vertical lines). If active it hits Feb 25th. Watch for Gold pullback. All dates are +- 2 td's at a minimum.



I'm expecting a bigger move in Gold later in the year, possibly at the end of this Primary cycle which may also be a 17 month cycle low. The move should be up. Subscribers have the potential dates.

The price lines on the following daily Gold chart take the longitudinal position of the planet and converts it to price. Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) have provided good support and resistance. Gold was stopped at the Jupiter price line 5 days ago and is sitting between the two price lines.. This is a potential pullback area but I think that's later next week.



Crude
The week of Feb 8th had another lower low and is now marked a Primary cycle trough. It was on Feb 11th (there's that date again) which has us in the 2nd week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. Bear in mind there are geopolitical issues affecting crude which can effect the price quickly and directly. With this in mind we could go lower. I would at least like to see the 15 day sma start to curl up.

I've been looking for Astrological aspects that hit Jupiter or Neptune. Both are co-rulers of crude. There is one on Feb 28th when the Sun conjuncts Neptune. This is particularly powerful as Neptune is in Pisces, the sign that it rules.

Many commodities and financials should be affected by the Saturn / Neptune waning square this year. This is a 3 pass with the last 2 occurring mid-Year and then September 2016. This is a 36 year cycle so looking back 36 years we had severe problems with the lack of crude and interest rates went over 20%. Things are never the same, but often close as we now have an abundance of crude and very low (negative?) interest rates approximately 36 years later. These longer term aspects color a period of history rather than a day, week or month.

Looking at the crude chart we see a Primary cycle low now on Feb 11. The last cycle is an example of a left translated cycle with the crest forming closer to the beginning trough. Left translated cycles are bearish, they simply spend more time going down than moving up. After 7 years of QE in the U.S. and loose monetary policy we haven't seen many left translated cycles for some time.

It appears we are now in the 2nd week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. I've mentioned before when a Primary cycle trough is formed it is usually bullish and we typically get a short dip cycle 2 - 3 weeks after the 18 week cycle trough. This gives traders the opportunity to get in if they missed the original trough. In this market this is a good strategy as the 18 week low could be lower a number of times as we wait for geopolitical events to unfold.

I'm in Canada where there appears to be some good buys but I'm waiting until I see a move above the Jan 28th high before considering even a short term trade.





Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?

The 1st half 2016 dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in Jan) are available for purchase.


Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Example ALERT

Following is an example ALERT sent to subscribers on the holiday, Feb. 15th, 2016

ALERT  Feb 15, 2016

Gold
As discussed in the blog heliocentric Mercury often coincides with sharp moves in precious metals. I'm looking for a sharp move down.

If Gold goes down this coming week it would be good timing for the crest of the second nominal 6 week cycle of the nominal 18 week cycle. We are 11 weeks along in the nominal 18 week cycle.

SP500
I was looking for Feb 15 to be a significant day and was leaning to it being a high for the 45 cd cycle. As discussed many times all dates are +- 2 td's at a minimum. It is quite possible this cycle inverted and Feb 11th may have been the low for the 45 cd cycle.

If this is the case we may see a strong move up this coming week in the main U.S. markets. We should know in the first hour of trading on Feb 16th. If there is a strong move starting on Feb 16th I would look to Feb 19, 22 to be the end of the move and probably down from there.

In bear markets we often get short, rip your face off rallies. These are shorting opportunities.

I would also expect crude to rise for nebulous reasons.


Good luck and good trading,


tradingdaze

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Financial Astrology - February 15, 2016

 - Our first half 2016 forecast dates are available
                      - Subscriptions include the forecast dates and a monthly Market letter with                          eMail alerts for imminent trading opportunities
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SP500
The following is a change from last week. For the SP500, cycle-wise Jan 20th looked like it was the Primary cycle trough.  1 cycle that started on Aug 24th. However, Feb 11th was a slightly lower low than Jan 20th. Feb 11th was either a double bottom to the Jan 20th nominal 18 week cycle low or Feb 11 is the start of the start of a new 18 week cycle and Jan 20th was a double bottom.

The distinction is important. If Jan 20th is the nominal 18 week low then the Feb 11 low is very bearish. Typically the new nominal 18 week cycle has put in it's highs for the cycle. This would be very left translated and bearish. If Feb 11 is the nominal 18 week cycle trough then we should be starting a new nominal 18 week cycle. The latter is more bullish. The former more bearish. We are already bearish just due to the fact that either date mentioned is lower than the previous 18 week cycle low on Aug 24, 2015. However, double bottoms, and we have one here, are normally bullish so the charts aren't being helpful, giving both bearish and bullish indications.

My outlook is bearish going into the Spring due to the Astrological aspects being formed, namely the Saturn / Neptune square and the Jupiter / Saturn square. There are others. The Saturn / Pluto square is still in orb but will soon be fading. March through June of 2016 looks troublesome and bearish.

To summarize, I'm bearish. Bear markets, like we are in often have violent rallies. We have seen a few. Please note; with the many heavy Astrological transits coming up we may have a distorted Primary cycle. I'm expecting a volatile environment in the markets. I'm also expecting geophysical events, possible violent weather and potential terrorist event. Sounds like fun!



In our cycle work we use td (trading days) and cd (calendar day) cycles. Feb 5th was
180 td's from the "All Time High" on May 20, 2015 at 2134.72.  This is basic GANN work which we'll use many times. The 180 td cycle from a high often results in a low 180 td's later and vice versa.

Next week, Feb 15 has a 45 cd cycle which also started on May 20th, 2015. This cycle has marked very reliable CIT's (Change In Trend) since May 20th. I was expecting Feb 15th to be a high. With the Presidents Day holiday in the US this would be Feb 12 or 16th. Feb 16th, the next day the US markets are open,  has the Sun quintile Saturn an aspect with a history of isolated lows 70% of the time. Feb 16th also has heliocentric Mars squaring Pluto an aspect with a history of isolated highs 73% of the time (based on 41 events). I look at the opening (1st couple of hours) as being very important. The two aspects just discussed may result in continued volatility.

The 45 cd cycle is shown below. It's a daily chart of the SP500. The purple vertical lines are the 45 cd cycle. This is referred to as an 8th harmonic cycle, simply 360 / 8 = 45. Note: This cycle has been very reliable since May 20, 2015 and found at both highs and lows. Review the chart and always consider +- 2 td's and you will see it's been present on some big moves.



I believe we are close to longer term cycle bottoms, both the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle, 3.3 years (or 40 months). Assuming January 20th was not it, then we may see a left translated cycle, that is a Primary cycle which forms it's crest in the first half of the cycle. This is a bearish sign. Look for this over the next 9 weeks. Subscribers have the time-frame where I think we will have a more significant low.

Before we get to that low there may be a financial event around Feb, 26th. This is an Astrological event which marks the start of a time period where there could be major changes to the U.S.'s financial system. This is a long term event, although we could see some effects around Feb 26 this should be +- a couple of months. The video has more information.

See the following VIDEO. Possibly Important


To summarize the above:
Volatility should continue. This coming week has the Sun and Venus changing signs, the Sun into Pisces, a mutable sign and Venus into Aquarius, a fixed sign. We also have heliocentric Mercury entering Sagittarius on Feb 15 through Feb 26th. We often see large price moves when Mercury is in Sagittarius in stocks and particularly precious metals. Will this time period end the sharp move in Gold?  Planets changing signs effect the markets often resulting in a change in trend. I'm looking for this coming week to be down, into Friday or at least end lower than it started. If the markets move sharply higher it could be a longer term up move. Instead of down, if we see the markets start moving up early next week the rise should be contained and only rise into Feb 18, 19. The following week we should continue moving down.

With the volatility we've seen one might expect the markets to settle down. Looking at the coming months, from an Astrological perspective, we may be getting more volatile. The major aspects coming up from March through June will be covered in the next subscribers report, March 1st. These will tie in with the forecast dates sent to subscribers in early January 2016 or when signing up. For example Mars will enter Sagittarius on March 5th joining Saturn. This is a classic war signature.

With the sharp market moves, up and down, we should consider one or more of the longer term cycles are coming down to enter their trough. Note the longer term charts we have shown for many months, specifically the Kitchin cycle (40 months) and the 6.5- 7 year cycle. The longer term cycles typically pull everything down with them. This can be a process that takes many months. They can also distort the normal rhythm of the 18 week cycle. I'm looking in the April / May time frame for a more significant low.

With these longer term cycles we use the Astrological aspects and Astro events to determine a more exact time. Longer term geocentric Astrological cycles include:

Uranus waning square Pluto
- passed the exact but still in orb (1 degree). This square will slowly dissipate over this year.
Remember what this square is about.
"This aspect has a historical association between anarchic uprisings and problems   with debt and Banks. The debt issue will have major negative consequences for all financial markets.

Other events associated with this square are protest movements, social unrest and perhaps mob violence. Tax revolts fit in as well. The square is about tearing down         the old structures (governments, financial institutions) and building anew.            Although Uranus is about sudden change and surprises, Pluto is about long term changes that will not be undone. It is ruthless in it’s force to change the status quo. We are only 1 degree away from the exact Uranus and Pluto square."

Jupiter waning square Saturn
- in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"The business cycle and direct effect on European history. Major changes will be occurring in Europe as result of the refuge migration. There is a major sign change coming up when Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct in 2020. More on this 240 year conjunction in a future post."
           
Saturn square Neptune
-in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"This aspect is often present near times when there is a change in trend for interest rates or inflation. It can also be a period of epidemics, pandemics suffering, depression and money valuation problems. This could be a change in the world's reserve currency or issues around it. A large increase in precious metals is also possible as it is a money valuation issue. This 36 year aspect has been associated with political changes, reforms and development of socialism. One wonders in regards to epidemics and sickness, would this be natural illnesses or man-made." If you feel depressed or not at ease this aspect may be the cause. One of these planets may be hitting a planet in your horoscope.

On the following weekly chart of the DJIA, the red squares are Jupiter square Saturn. An ideal spot for a significant low would be between the last 2 red squares at March 23rd to May 26th. Note the green squares also. These are the Saturn / Neptune exact squares and the middle square is very close to the last Jupiter / Saturn square. Saturn is the common planet here. Among other things Saturn is fear.



For 2016 we have Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and the North Node in mutable signs. In addition both Solar eclipses are in mutable signs. Mutable signs are about flexibility and the ability or need to change.

Saturn is in Sagittarius which rules the law, religion, philosophy and science. With the square to Neptune is a good signal for a religious message that gets perverted. It's a time period where things seen depressing.

Charts we have not shown for awhile. The first 3 charts are daily charts of the SP500, the Russell 2000 and the NYSE. The horizontal blue lines are the average longitude of the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto on all 3 charts This average is converted to price and displayed on the charts. Notice how well they have acted as support and resistance. Will the SP500 reach the next level at 1879 or fall back to 1833.






The other chart we haven't shown for a while is this Fan which started on March 6, 2009 at the low. The dark blue line has acted as support most of the way up. It is the 50% line or 45 degrees. The red line we have just touched is 61.8%. It hasn't been touched since Oct. 2011. The black vertical lines are 512 cd's (calendar days) which next falls on March 9, just one day away from a powerful Solar Eclipse. This is potentially a low.



Other longer term cycles that may be close to seeing their lows in the next couple of months are the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle (40 months). I'm looking at the period from now through the spring of 2016 as a potential time period for these cycles. They are long term cycles and need a broad orb.

Following is the Kitchin cycle on the SP500 chart. This is a monthly chart. The Kitchin cycle is 1/4 of the synodic Jupiter / Uranus cycle.




Other long term cycle due, including the 6.5 - 7 year.



The following weekly chart shows the 21 and 34 weekly moving averages and the fact price broke through both averages Also the 21 and 34 week moving averages are pointing down.

The question is, do we have a significant low in front of us. At this point I think yes.  I'm thinking potentially deeper in the spring time frame in 2016.



The next couple of months may see more significant geophysical activity and terrorist events.

Behind the wall, the Gods play with numbers"
-- Le Corbusier

Gold
Gold put in a  Primary cycle   1 trough on July 24th and we had another Primary cycle trough on Dec 3rd. 2015 which has marked an important low.
It sure was.

This puts us entering the 11th week of the Primary cycle and entering the 5th week of the 2nd nominal 6 week cycle during this coming week. The nominal 6 week cycle has a range of 5 to 7 weeks. We may be near the peak of this cycle.

As we've mentioned before Mars in Scorpio often results in big moves in Gold both up and down. Mars entered Scorpio on Jan 3, 2016 and will leave Scorpio for Sagittarius on March 5, 2016. Due to retrograde motion Mars will be back in Scorpio later in the year.

In addition to Mars in Scorpio heliocentric Mercury will enter Sagittarius on Feb 15th and will leave Sagittarius on Feb 26th, the date mentioned in the video above under the SP500. We often see large price moves when Mercury is in Sagittarius in stocks and particularly precious metals. Will this time period end the sharp move in Gold? 
Watch the fib retracements on the following chart for both support and resistance areas.



I'm still looking for the time period around Feb 15th to be a high in Gold. Feb12 had the 180 cd cycle which is also a signal for a turn. It's on the above chart.

The following daily chart for Gold shows the heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius (red x's). It also has a 22 cd cycle you can see in the bottom right area of the chart (orange vertical lines). If active it hits Feb 29th. Watch for Gold pullback.



I'm expecting a bigger move in Gold later in the year, possibly at the end of this Primary cycle which may also be a 17 month cycle low. The move should be up. Again, subscribers have the potential dates.

The price lines take the longitudinal position converted to price. Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) have provided good support and resistance. Gold was stopped and is very close to the Jupiter price line. This is a potential pullback area. We are also over the 200 day sma.


Crude
The week of Feb 8th had another lower low and is now marked a Primary cycle trough. It was on Feb 11th which has us in the 1st week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. Bear in mind there are geopolitical issues affecting crude which can effect the price quickly and directly. With this in mind we could go lower.

I've been looking for Astrological aspects that hit Jupiter or Neptune. Both are co-rulers of crude. There is one on Feb 28th when the Sun conjuncts Neptune. This is particularly powerful as Neptune is in Pisces, the sign that it rules.

Many commodities and financials should be affected by the Saturn / Neptune waning square this year. This is a 3 pass with the last 2 occurring mid-Year and then September 2016. This is a 36 year cycle so looking back 36 years we had severe problems with the lack of crude and interest rates went over 20%. Things are never the same, but often close as we now have an abundance of crude and very low (negative?) interest rates approximately 36 years later. These longer term aspects color a period of history rather than a day, week or month.

Looking at the crude chart we see a Primary cycle low now on Feb 11. This is an example of a left translated cycle with the crest forming closer to the beginning trough. Left translated cycles are bearish, they simply spend more time going down than moving up. After 7 years of QE in the U.S. and loose monetary policy we haven't seen many left translated cycles for some time.

We are now in the 1st week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. I've mentioned before when a Primary cycle trough is formed it is usually bullish and we typically get a short dip cycle 2 - 3 weeks after the 18 week cycle trough. This gives traders the opportunity to get in if they missed the original trough. In this market this is a good strategy as the 18 week low could be lower a number of times as we wait for geopolitical events to unfold.

I'm in Canada where there appears to be some good buys but I'm waiting until I see a move above the Jan 28th high before considering even a short term trade.





Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?

The 1st half 2016 dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in Jan) are available for purchase.


Saturday, February 6, 2016

Financial Astrology - February 8, 2016

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SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise Jan 20th looks like it was the Primary cycle trough.  1 cycle that started on Aug 24th. The start of a new Primary cycle is usually the most bullish part of the cycle. We often get a pullback 2-3 weeks after the start of a new Primary cycle which provides an opportunity to get on board if you missed the cycle low. The Primary cycle is aka, the nominal 18 week has a range of 15 to 21 weeks.



I may play this next week as there are some favorable Astrological aspects coming up but first we need to see some upward price action. At this point this nominal 18 week cycle looks anything but normal. A test or close below the Jan 20th lows would result in a very left translated cycle which would be very bearish. On the up-side the high of Feb 1st at 1947.20 must be taken out.

In our cycle work we use td (trading days) and cd (calendar day) cycles. Feb 5th was
180 td's from the "All Time High" on May 20, 2015 at 2134.72.  This is basic GANN work which we'll use many times. The 180 td cycle from a high often results in a low 180 td's later and vice versa.

Feb 5th also had a significant transit, Venus conjunct Pluto. This was part of Venus translating the Uranus / Pluto square, a square which has been on-going for a few years and will be slowly dissipating over the next few months. Venus completes the translation on Feb 6th when Venus squares Uranus. Among other things Venus is money and Pluto is debt. Pluto can also stand for big wealth and Gold, as it rules things from the ground.

The Uranus / Pluto square will be replaced by the Saturn / Neptune square. A summary of these longer term transits is included further down. Although this weekend has some harsh aspect (i.e. Sun squared Mars just before a New Moon) there are other more positive aspects coming up like Venus trine Jupiter and trine the North Node on Feb 10th. Whenever I quote a date always assume it is +- 2td's unless otherwise stated. The universe appears to have a little more cosmic flux than most people think. Some of the longer term aspects will be +- 2 months.

The New Moon is very close to the 9:30 am opening in New York. All New Moon are the start of a new cycle. This New Moon is square to Mars and sextile to Uranus. There is a quincunx between Mars and Uranus. This New Moon requires a change to be implemented. Something is not working. Mars is in Scorpio a Fixed, Water sign while Uranus is in Aries, a Cardinal, Fire sign. There is nothing in common between these two planets which are aspecting the New Moon and each other. Watch for some type of change ideally next week or at some point during this New Moon. Best before the next Full Moon.

The week following next, Feb 15 has a 45 cd cycle which also started on May 20th, 2015. This cycle has marked very reliable CIT's (Change In Trend) since May 20th. I was expecting Feb 15th to be a high with the SP500, and other US major indices following with a low near the end of the month. The 45 cd cycle is shown below. It's a daily chart of the SP500. The purple vertical lines are the 45 cd cycle. This is referred to as an 8th harmonic cycle, simply 360 / 8 = 45. Note: This cycle has been very reliable since May 20, 2015 and found at both highs and lows. The high I was expecting depends on next weeks price action and will be updated next week.



From last weeks blog post;
"Other dates to watch this coming week are Feb 4th where there is Mercury parallel Saturn and Feb 5, 6th where Venus will translate the Uranus / Pluto square, Venus conjunct Pluto on Feb 5th and Venus squared Uranus on Feb 6th."

I believe we are close to longer term cycle bottoms, both the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle, 3.3 years (or 40 months). Assuming January 20th was not it, then we may see a left translated cycle, that is a Primary cycle which forms it's crest in the first half of the cycle. This is a bearish sign. Look for this over the next 9 weeks. Subscribers have the time-frame where I think we will have a more significant low. Before we get to that low there may be a low or financial disruption around Feb, 26th. This is a possibility at this point, not definite.

See the following VIDEO. Possibly Important


To summarize the above:
Volatility should remain. Next week looks volatile to start but should settle down, (bounce ?) ,Tuesday / Wednesday and rising into the Feb 15th date where we expect a high. If the markets don't recover, then Feb 15th could be a significant low. Difficult week to call. I'm looking for a high Feb 15th as it feeds into my thoughts for the end of the month where I was expecting a low. A review of the 45 cd cycle above shows the cycle appears at highs and lows.

With the sharp market moves down we should consider one or more of the longer term cycles are coming down to enter their trough. Note the longer term charts we have shown for many months, specifically the Kitchin cycle (40 months) and the 6.5- 7 year cycle. The longer term cycles typically pull everything down with them. This can be a process that takes many months when only looking at the longer term cycle charts. They can also distort the normal rhythm of the 18 week cycle. I'm looking in the April / May time frame for a more significant low.

With these longer term cycles we use the Astrological aspects and Astro events to determine a more exact time. Longer term geocentric Astrological cycles include:

Uranus waning square Pluto
- passed the exact but still in orb (1 degree). This square will slowly dissipate over this year.
Remember what this square is about.
"This aspect has a historical association between anarchic uprisings and problems   with debt and Banks. The debt issue will have major negative consequences for all financial markets.

Other events associated with this square are protest movements, social unrest and perhaps mob violence. Tax revolts fit in as well. The square is about tearing down         the old structures (governments, financial institutions) and building anew.            Although Uranus is about sudden change and surprises, Pluto is about long term changes that will not be undone. It is ruthless in it’s force to change the status quo. We are only 1 degree away from the exact Uranus and Pluto square."

Jupiter waning square Saturn
- in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"The business cycle and direct effect on European history. Major changes will be occurring in Europe as result of the refuge migration. There is a major sign change coming up when Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct in 2020. More on this 240 year conjunction in a future post."
           
Saturn square Neptune
-in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"This aspect is often present near times when there is a change in trend for interest rates or inflation. It can also be a period of epidemics, pandemics suffering, depression and money valuation problems. This could be a change in the world's reserve currency or issues around it. A large increase in precious metals is also possible as it is a money valuation issue. This 36 year aspect has been associated with political changes, reforms and development of socialism. One wonders in regards to epidemics and sickness, would this be natural illnesses or man-made." If you feel depressed or not at ease this aspect may be the cause. One of these planets may be hitting a planet in your horoscope.

On the following chart, the red squares are Jupiter square Saturn. An ideal spot for a significant low would be between the last 2 red squares at March 23rd to May 26th. Note the green squares also. These are the Saturn / Neptune exact squares and the middle square is very close to the last Jupiter / Saturn square.



For 2016 we have Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and the North Node in mutable signs. In addition both Solar eclipses are in mutable signs. Mutable signs are about flexibility and the ability or need to change.

Saturn is in Sagittarius which rules the law, religion, philosophy and science. With the square to Neptune is a good signal for a religious message that gets perverted. It's a time period where things seen depressing.

Two charts we have not shown for a while. The first is a weekly chart of the SP500. The horizontal blue lines are the average longitude of the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto. This average is converted to price and displayed on this chart. Notice how well it has acted as support and resistance. The vertical black lines are the 55 td  cycle. Will the SP500 reach the next level at 1968 or fall back to 1878. If it's a new 18 week cycle I suspect it will move up.



The other chart we haven't shown for a while is this Fan which started on March 6, 2009 at the low. The dark blue line has acted as support most of the way up. It is the 50% line or 45 degrees. The red line we have just touched is 61.8%. It hasn't been touched since Oct. 2011. The black vertical lines are 512 cd's (calendar days) which next falls on March 9, just one day away from a powerful Solar Eclipse. More on this next week.



Other longer term cycles that may be close to seeing their lows in the next couple of months are the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle (40 months). I'm looking at the period from now through the spring of 2016 as a potential time period for these cycles. They are long term cycles and need a broad orb.

Following is the Kitchin cycle on the SP500 chart. This is a monthly chart. cycles may appear closer than when they actually due. The Kitchin cycle is 1/4 of the
synodic Jupiter / Uranus cycle.



Other long term cycle due, including the 6.5 - 7 year.



The following weekly chart shows the 21 and 34 weekly moving averages and the fact price broke through both averages Also the 21 and 34 week moving averages are pointing down.

The question is, do we have a significant low in front of us. At this point I think yes.  I'm thinking potentially deeper in the spring timeframe in 2016.



The next couple of months may see more significant geophysical activity and terrorist events.

"It's a poor sort of memory that only works backwards"
-- Lewis Carroll, The White Queen, Through the Looking-Glass

Gold
Gold put in a  Primary cycle   1 trough on July 24th and we had another Primary cycle trough on Dec 3rd. 2015.

This puts us entering the 10th week of the Primary cycle and entering the 4th week of the 2nd nominal 6 week cycle during this coming week. The nominal 6 week cycle has a range of 5 to 7 weeks.

Jan 8th appears to be a 6 week cycle crest from which we typically pullback into a nominal 6 week cycle low which appears to be Jan 14th. There are often. 3, 6 week cycles in the nominal 18 week cycle.

As we've mentioned before Mars in Scorpio often results in big moves in Gold both up and down. Mars entered Scorpio on Jan 3, 2016 and will leave Scorpio for Sagittarius on March 5, 2016. Due to retrograde motion Mars will be back in Scorpio later in the year.

Watch the fib retracements on the following chart for both support and resistance areas.



Heliocentric (Sun centered rather than Geocentric which is Earth centered) Mercury enters Sagittarius. Feb 15th and will be there until Feb 26th. This is very often a volatile period for precious metals. If Gold has continued to advance the time period around Feb 15th could be a high for Gold.

The following daily chart for Gold shows the heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius (red x's). It also has a 22 cd cycle you can see in the bottom right area of the chart (orange vertical lines). If active it hits Feb 8th. Watch for Gold pullback.



I'm expecting a bigger move in Gold later in the year, possibly at the end of this Primary cycle which may also be a 17 month cycle low. The move should be up. Again, subscribers have the potential dates.

On the following daily chart we see Gold had a low on Jan 15th (27cd cycle) then moved up into Feb 5th where it rests close to the Jupiter price line (blue line) . The price lines take the longitudinal position converted to price. Venus and Jupiter have provided good support and resistance. The 27 cd cycle hits again on Feb 11th (red vertical lines). This is a potential pullback area. We are also just over the 200 day sma.



Crude
This coming week of Feb 8th we should be entering the 3rd week of a nominal 18 week cycle which started January 20th.

I've been looking for Astrological aspects that hit Jupiter or Neptune. Both are co-rulers of crude. There is one this week on Feb 10th which would point to this being a short favorable time for crude. We need something more major to reverse this long term trend.

Watch the Fib retracements for a potential reversal or a retest.

Many commodities and financials should be affected by the Saturn / Neptune waning square this year. This is a 3 pass with the last 2 occurring mid-Year and then September 2016. This is a 36 year cycle so looking back 36 years we had severe problems with the lack of crude and interest rates went over 20%. Things are never the same, but often close as we now have an abundance of crude and very low (negative?) interest rates approximately 36 years later. These longer term aspects color a period of history rather than a day, week or month.

Looking at the crude chart we see a Primary cycle low on Aug 24 and then a crest on
Oct 9th. This is an example of a left translated cycle with the crest forming closer to the beginning trough. Left translated cycles are bearish, they simply spend more time going down than moving up. After 7 years of QE in the U.S. and loose monetary policy we haven't seen many left translated cycles for some time.

We are now in the 3rd week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. This could be that period I've mentioned when you can enter a new Primary cycle 2 - 3 weeks after the 18 week cycle low.

I'm in Canada where there appears to be some good buys but I'm waiting until I see a move above the Jan 28th high before considering even a short term trade.





Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?

The 1st half 2016 dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in Jan) are available for purchase.


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