SP500
The following daily chart of the SP500
finally shows a turn which should be the crest of the current Primary cycle
(nominal 18 week) with a range 15-23 weeks. We are currently at the 15th
week. Note the Fibonacci extension at 1533.13 and 127.2. 127.2 is the square
root of 1.618.
If not the crest of the Primary cycle it
should at least be the crest of the Major cycle (nominal 6 week). This is getting late in the Primary cycle but
continued FED manipulation is distorting the market. We are now in the Mercury
retrograde period until March 17th so normal cycle lengths and
support / resistance areas can become distorted. I’m watching the banks and the
Nasdaq to get a sense of short term direction. Of course we have sequestration
which could have a short term effect on the markets.
If this Primary cycle were to last it’s
average length of 18 weeks we would get to the weeks of March 18 and 25th.
This timeframe has some powerful Astros that could indicate a Primary cycle trough as follows;
March 17 Mercury
direct
March 19 North
Node opposes the position of the May 9, 2013 Solar eclipse
March 22, 26 Mars translates the Uranus / Pluto square by Mars conjuncting
Uranus on the 22th and squaring Pluto on March 26th
March 28,31 The
Sun translates the Uranus / Pluto square by the Sun conjuncting Uranus and
Venus on the 28th and squaring Pluto on March 31. Venus translates
the same square on the same dates.
The last two weeks of March 2013 look like
troubled times for many markets, with the translation of the Uranus / Pluto
square, discussed in a number of previous posts.
Mars is also quite active in this time
period and into April.
Gold
Looking at the attached daily chart Gold
has to get back into the channel and quickly. Gold is 16 weeks along in it’s
Primary cycle. The Sun is currently in Pisces and tomorrow the Moon will be in
Virgo and a Full Moon in the late afternoon. This has a history of short sharp
moves in precious metals. The move however could be up or down. Due to it’s
recent down move out of the downward channel this looks likes it is setting up
for a rebound, possibly 2.5% to 4%. I’ll be watching this one closely as it may
be a very quick trade.
Normally in a down trending market we would sell the rallies. Tomorrow or Tuesday would be the exception.
Normally in a down trending market we would sell the rallies. Tomorrow or Tuesday would be the exception.
Crude
Crude is 16 weeks along in it’s Primary
cycle and turned down just a little later than the Jan 1, 2013 post indicated. See
the following weekly chart for crude.
I'm looking for a more meaningful decline as long as a very active Mars doesn't stir up more aggression.