- Our second half 2015 forecast dates are now
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- Subscriptions include the forecast dates and a monthly Market letter with eMail alerts for imminent trading opportunities
- We do not use negative option billing nor do we sell email addresses
The market letter is now a monthly
report and the August issue will be sent out this weekend. We will be sending
ALERTS to subscribers with specific
dates when there are imminent trading opportunities forming.
SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise we are
entering the 4th week of a new
Primary cycle 1
cycle that started on July 7th. This cycle is aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15 to 21 weeks.
The next time band for a nominal
18 week (Primary) cycle trough is noted on the first chart and is from Oct 19 through Dec 1st 2015. There are
a number of longer term cycles that may hit their troughs about the same time.
Details on the subscriber letter.
First we should be looking for the
crest of the first nominal 6 week cycle of the Primary cycle. The nominal 18
week cycle often breaks down into 3 nominal 6 week cycles. They would have a
range of 5-7 weeks. As we are 4 weeks along in the 18 week cycle and will enter
the 5th week on Aug 6th, we should start looking for a crest for the 6 week
cycle. If this carries on to a 1/2 Primary cycle, I'll discuss it next week.
Fridays, July 31st negative action
could have may have been the crest of the first 6 week cycle of the nominal 18
week cycle. There are a number of heavy Saturn aspects next week.
The fact I'm looking for a slow
forming top for the whole 6 year move
means we may start seeing some left translated cycles or at least cresting in
the middle of the cycle rather than being right translated. Left translated
meaning the crest occurs early in the cycle and it spends more of it's time
going down than going up. I believe the top will most probably be a long
process rather than a single event. It may stretch out a few months.
From last weeks blog post:
"We got the move
down I was expecting. The question now is does the SP500 start moving up again
into the crest of the first 6 week cycle of the nominal 18 week cycle. If it
does not move up this would be very bearish as we could be looking at a very
left translated cycle."
So the SP500 did start moving up
on July 28th. The move down from July 20th to July 27th was the move I
mentioned about a pullback in the 2nd to 3rd week of a new Primary cycle. If
the high on July 31 is the crest for this 6 week cycle it was quite weak. I had
expected the crest to be closer to or above the July 20th high.
There are a number of volatile
Astrological events over the first two weeks of August which could effect the
markets, Gold and Crude and possibly world events. With Saturn and Pluto
involved we also cannot rule out earthquakes and violent weather. Subscribers
have the dates. In addition Jupiter and Saturn will be involved in an important
240 year event in a few years. The details are included in the subscriber
letter. I will say it is tied into an Astrological aspect occurring next week.
July 7th was the Primary cycle low
and it was 1 day off the estimated date at the bottom right of the following
chart. The estimate was done in early February this year.
On the following daily chart of
the SP500 the light blue lines are Fibonacci retracements from June 22nd to
July 7th. Note today's move got stopped at the 78.6 % extended Fib retracement.
78.6 is the square root of 61.8.
On the following chart which is
the average longitude of the planets Mars through Pluto
(blue lines) converted to price. After
the pullback price touched the thin blue line, the Mars-Pluto planetary average
at 2093.25, then rebounded to the thicker blue line at 2110 then retreated,
On the chart the red dots are
previous OPEX dates. (Option expiry, 3rd Friday of each month). The market has
been pulling back after these dates and Friday was OPEX. I read this somewhere
but forgotten the source.
The next two weeks have a number
of Saturn aspects. Saturn is discipline,
enduring, contracting and structure. Saturn is in Scorpio until Sept 17th.
Among other things Scorpio is other peoples money and debt. Saturn and Pluto are also in mutual reception. Saturn is in Scorpio, the sign Pluto rules and
Pluto is in Capricorn, the sign Saturn rules. This makes both planets stronger.
The coming aspects could also
indicate earthquake activity or severe weather. Violent events continue.
At this point, following are the
highs in the US
indexes.
DJIA May 19, 2015
DJTI Nov 28, 2014
SP500 May 20, 2015
NYSE May 21, 2015
RUT Jun 23, 2015
COMPQX July 20,
2015
Another chart we have not looked at for awhile is the
following daily chart of the SP500 with a fan indicator. The dark blue fan line
is 45 degrees. The starting point is the low at March 6, 2009. The blue 45 degree line is currently at 2103. Watch for any significant break
at this level. It has been good support / resistance for some time. It moved
back below the 45 degree this week.
Another long term chart showing
weakness is the following weekly chart of the SP500 with a 21 week (red) and 34
week (blue) weekly averages again showing weakness. Price has not spent much
time below these moving averages during the massive move up. The 3 red squares
are the Saturn / Uranus sesquisquare (135 degrees). I'm watching this weekly
chart to see if the 21 sma crosses below the 34 week moving average.
In summary I look at
the markets in the coming two weeks and there may be a depressive air. We got
the move down I was expecting and then the move back up, also expected,
however, I had expected the SP500 to rise further last week. The question now
is, does the SP500 start moving up again into the crest of the first 6 week
cycle of the nominal 18 week cycle or did we see the crest on Friday. The Astrological aspects seem to be
pointing to a move down. If it does not move up this would be bearish as we could be looking at a very left
translated cycle.
As I've said elsewhere I'm looking for a market to slowly trend down with many ups and downs along the way.
As I've said elsewhere I'm looking for a market to slowly trend down with many ups and downs along the way.
So we have Saturn and Jupiter
aspect next week. There is also a square between Venus and Saturn. This just
occurred in July but due to retrograde motion we have a second Venus / Saturn
square. Venus, among other things is money. Saturn, among other things is
discipline and situated in intense Scorpio is debt.
On Aug 3rd Jupiter will make a
waning square to Saturn. There's a lot to say about this aspect. Here's one
point. Every pass of the waning square between Jupiter and Saturn that has been
a 3 pass has resulted in a longer term cycle unfolding between the first and
last passages. This will be a 3 pass. The dates are Aug 3, 2015, March 23, 2016 and June 26, 2016. We should be looking for
a longer term cycle to occur between the Aug 3, 2015 and June 26, 2016. Subscribers
have the longer term cycles. Subscribers also have information on the upcoming
"Mutation Conjunction" in Air, which should be an exciting period of
time. The last time this happened was
the year 1226.
See the following weekly chart of
the DJIA. The red squares are the Jupiter Saturn waning square, 3 pass. The
green squares are the Saturn Neptune square. They overlap and could be pointing
to a period of change in the markets.
There are stressful and
potentially violent aspects coming up and the potential for surprise moves into
early August. The aspects in early August could be pointing to another debt
event. Saturn turning direct in Scorpio and is in mutual reception with Pluto.
This should have a strong effect.
"What everyone is looking for, is what is
looking."
-- St. Francis ofAssisi
-- St. Francis of
Gold
Gold put in a Primary cycle 1
trough on March 17th. This was 1 td after the
Uranus / Pluto square. This puts us entering the 20th week of the nominal 18 week during this coming week.
It should be noted Gold has followed an 18-19 week cycle
fairly closely for 2 years although there were some inversions (a high where a
low was expected). We should be getting close to a trough. Subscribers have
dates. Besides the 18 week cycle there are a number of longer term cycles due
and potent aspects which have a history of turns in precious metals.
Saturn turns Direct
on Aug 2nd and a change in trend for Gold often occurs near this signature
+- 3 tds. The next day, Aug 3rd Jupiter is in waning square to Saturn, this
also has a strong history of Primary cycle turns.
We are monitoring another cycle for Gold which will hit in
the summer but reserved for subscribers. That cycle and others with the placement of Jupiter in the summer
may be pointing to a strong reversal in Gold.
The Gold chart is fulfilling all our requirements for a
nominal 18 week cycle low, that is price is below the 15 and 45 day sma's and
the 15 day is less than the 45 day and there are a number of Astrological
aspects which have a history of changes in trend for Gold. Watch for a reversal
in trend over the coming week or second week in August. This looks quite
positive but we must remember the last thing central banks want is a rising
Gold price.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus
(green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold has been moving sideways over last
week.. The Miners (Gold Mining companies) often lead Gold higher. Some
indicators like "TSI" are improving for The Miners.
On July 19, 2015
approximately 2.7 billion dollars of Gold was dumped on the market at 9:30 pm
on a Sunday evening. This was at a time when the market was the least liquid.
Whoever was selling was guaranteed to get the lowest price. This had the effect
reducing Gold prices by $50.00 per ounce or approx. 4.2%. I bring this up as an
example of market manipulation that is occurring. There are many other
examples.
Crude
This coming week of Aug
3rd we should be entering the 20th
week of a Primary cycle which started Mar
18, 2015.
I'm watching the dates around any Neptune or Jupiter aspects. July
1st had Venus conjunct Jupiter and the Sun trine Neptune ,
a big down day. There are other Astrological signatures with a history of moves
in crude. Dates are reserved for subscribers.
Crude put in a "W" bottom, marked PB (Primary
bottom) and DB ( double bottom).
Crude has broken below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of
the move down from
June 12, 2014 to March 17, 2015. Both the 15 and 45 day
sma's are rolling over and price is below both. It appears to be preparing for
a nominal 18 week low. Bear in mind it is difficult trading crude here. The first week in August may turn out to
be eventful for crude. Jupiter waning trine Saturn and looking out further
Saturn square Neptune on Nov 26th. Any news
out of Saudi Arabia
or other big producers or potential disruption would change crude prices
quickly.
As seen on the following chart crude finally dropped away
from the Neptune price line (green) and now sits close to the next Neptune price line which is 47.41.
The lines are 45 degrees apart. 45 degrees is (360 / 8) = 45
or also known as the 8th harmonic.
We are getting late in the nominal 18 week cycle in crude.
Watch price closely as it approaches any of the price lines.
Another chart we have not shown for awhile is the weekly
crude chart with the 16 week (red) and 24 week (blue) cycles. Where they meet
the cycle line is green and is typically found at crests but sometimes inverts
to a trough. The next green line is early
November. 2015.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 2nd half 2015
dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in July) are available
for purchase.