- Our second half 2016 forecast dates
are available
- Subscriptions include the forecast dates
and a monthly Market letter with eMail alerts for
imminent trading opportunities
- We do not use negative option billing nor do we sell email addresses
- We do not use negative option billing nor do we sell email addresses
The next 1/2 year Forecast Dates are available
for purchase. Subscribers receive 6 months forecast no matter when they sign up.
I've changed the format a little by including more Video. This weeks post will
be a little shorter as I'm writing the November subscribers report.
SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise June 27 was the last Primary cycle trough. 1 that
puts us entering the 19th week. I
was looking for a possible 50 week low to coincide with that June
27th Primary trough. The sharp move up after the June 27th Primary low seems to
confirm this was the 50 week trough as well.
The next estimated Primary
cycle ( aka nominal 18 week cycle)
low was estimated to be October 24 +- 3 weeks with a range of October 3rd to November 14th. As we get closer I use the upcoming Astros to try
and get a more exact reading on when the Primary cycle trough will occur. As I
mentioned some weeks ago on a previous post the cycles, as they get closer to the US Election, cycles that are due
may expand into the Election date. The Election date is November 8th. We
will need a range around that date and look for Astrological transits or events
that have a history of moves near Primary cycle troughs. These will be included
in the November Subscribers report. On October
22 the Sun enters Scorpio and will be there until November 21. The market, with the Sun in Scorpio, is often volatile
with a history of big moves in both directions during this period. For US stock
indices the period when the Sun is in Scorpio and the Moon is in Aquarius can
coincide with a change in trend. This year that would be November 6th, 7th, 8th.
I've mentioned Election day, November 8th +- as a possible low but this could mark a high and
the start of a more severe slide. We could also see a bounce into the election
period then down. It will be very important in assessing the trend as we
approach the November 8th period. I'm watching price action as we get closer.
Currently I'm looking for a low near November 8th but it could be choppy on the
way.
For those who have been reading this blog for awhile I've
been looking for some large deceit or lies being exposed. This maybe what is
coming out of Wiki leaks and Assange but it hasn't made it to the Main Stream
Media. There have been many little lies exposed. The internet outage on October 21 is certainly an indication of how
secure the internet is and how vulnerable to attack. As someone said
"Build a FireWall before a wall."
The month of November
2016 will be influenced by Neptune . There are 5 transits to Neptune
and it will be turning Direct. This should color the period with Neptune issues.
In addition there is a 12 year cycle hitting near the end of
the month. This synodic cycle relates to the growth of international terrorism
and political power. It also has evidence of an impact on the economy. In
brief, the attainment of power of all
kinds.
One area of note.
Saturn will be at 14 degrees, 41 minutes
in Sagittarius on November 3rd.
This is conjunct the Fixed Star Sarin. Fixed Stars are treated as if they stand
still. They do move but very slowly. Saturn
moves slowly as well. It takes approx. 29 years for one trip around the
Sun. The last time Saturn was in this
position was
September 5, 1987. A
few days before the market crash of '87. This is far from definite but look
for a possible severe move down around November 3rd - 8th or shortly
thereafter. We'll know better as we get closer in time.
In mundane astrology the star names can also be significant.
On March 20, 1995 there was a sarin attack on the Tokyo subway, killing at least a dozen
people, severely injuring fifty and causing temporary vision problems for
nearly a thousand others. Transiting Jupiter was conjunct this fixed star Sarin. Note I am not
forecasting the same event.
Mars entered
Capricorn on Sept 27th where it
is exalted. One more piece of a move
from mutable signs to Cardinal signs. Here Mars, male energy, is the initiator
of action in the worldly environment and is kept in check by Saturn the ruler
of Capricorn. Mars leaves Capricorn and
enters Aquarius on November 9th, the day after the US Election. Planets
changing signs often occur near the markets changing trend.
We saw a number of earthquakes over 6.0 in October. With a
number of Neptune
transits in November we may be seeing more.
Following is a daily chart of the SP500. The grey line is an
adjusted Bradley indicator. It's purpose is to find a change in trend. This is
not straight forward to read and the details with video are in section 9 of the
subscribers report.
Note the next V shaped bottom of
that indicator is right on October 24th,
2016. It has no polarity by itself. This suggests there will be a move but
not the direction of the move.
With the latest news out of the US
and the election with the FBI reviewing additional eMails it seems to fit with
a period of time when Neptune is active. Lies,
deceit and confusion. For longer term readers, this may be the surprise I was
looking for.
Following is our normal daily chart for the SP500. Price is now below both the 15 and 45
day sma's and the 15 day is below the 45 day. A usual setup leading into a Primary cycle low.
In
addition there is a Mars waning square
to Uranus and Venus conjunct Saturn
on Saturday October 29th. Mars waning
square to Uranus is a powerful aspect but needs a wide orb +- 1.5 weeks. Venus
conjunct Saturn has a strong correlation to Primary cycle turns. I think these will wait closer to the
November 8th date.
Following is a chart of the planetary average longitude. The
horizontal blue lines are based on the average longitude of the planets
Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto which are converted to price. The
levels this calculates typically are excellent points to place sell or buy
stops. I often use them with Fibonacci retracement levels as well. Price started
down Oct. 24th and appeared to be speeding up with the US election news on Oct. 24th. Note my comments on Saturn
position further up n this post.
Two charts we have not shown for
awhile are the weekly charts of the DJIA with the 40 week and 18 cycles. The
cycles are the vertical blue lines. Both are due to turn down.
40 week
18week
Harmonics
I continue to watch the 24th
harmonic cycle (360 / 24) cycle between the Sun and Saturn, which are the brown
squares on the following daily chart. The next hits are Nov 4th then Nov. 23rd. They
are often at short changes in trend.
Rumors from the FED that Yellen
wants a "high-pressure economy" meaning increased inflation with no
rate cuts. There were also rumors of the FED buying stock directly. They should
review Japan
again.
And for the election crowd.
“If they will stop telling lies about me, I’ll will stop telling the
truth about them.”
-- Adlai
Stevenson
Gold
I was looking at May 31 as the
start of a new nominal 18 week cycle 1
trough.
Gold appears to be trying to move
up. We have hit a couple of the dates identified in the subscribers report with
more to come. A review of the daily chart shows the 15 and 45 day sma are
pointed down with the 15 day flat and price below both. The Gold Primary cycle
is due for a trough. It is currently entering the 21st week. Beyond the nominal 18 week cycle there is a 13 1/2 month cycle that is due for a
trough then up.
It is possible October 7th was the Primary low but unconfirmed. Price hasn't made
a big move up. I'm looking for a trough in Gold between November 2 -9 or near November
24, 25 both +- 3 td's. When the trough is in we may be looking at a
significant rise in precious metals.
The following weekly chart for Gold
has the 13.5 month cycle shown as the blue vertical lines. It has been close to
both highs and lows and we are close now.
The next chart is a longer term
monthly chart showing the 7.4 year cycle in Gold. They are the red vertical
lines. Note that the 7.4 year cycle put in a low in late 2015. We are now in a
pull back but we are very early in the 7.4 year cycle which should be bullish
in the long term. I'm looking for a more substantial move up later in November.
Crude
Feb 11 was the start of the previous Primary cycle. The crude cycle
trough hit again on August 3rd where
we have another Primary Cycle trough (PB).
We have had a Major cycle (aka 6
week cycle) crest (MT) and a Major cycle trough (MB) and are going up into the
second Major cycle of the Primary cycle.
I'm watching
all aspects to Jupiter or Neptune,
the two rulers of crude. The price of crude is subject to the vagaries of the
OPEC group and the actions of it's individual members. We had been looking for
a retest of the August lows but now may
have put in the crest of this Primary cycle on October 19th. Many markets
will be influenced by the US
leading into the November 8th election. With the multiple Neptune
aspects crude could be volatile in November.
Crude may be headed down here or it
could put in one more Major cycle (6 week) high and then down.
Following is a daily chart of crude
shows the price lines for the Sun (green) and Pluto (black). Note that recent
moves down in crude have been stopped at the up sloping green line, the Sun
price line. Pluto, the black line often acts as support or resistance.