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Summary
SP500. It is possible the recent low was the 4 year low on December 24, 2018 or it is still forming. The 4 year may be in
front of us, perhaps near year end.
This does look like the Primary
cycle low (18 week) on Dec 24.
Things may heat up the following
week starting Feb 25th. Volatility should continue and longer term
I’m expecting bigger moves and changes from 2020 through 2023.
Watch for a cycle turn in the
SP500 next week or 1st week in March.
Jupiter square Neptune which we have mentioned numerous times may
be the real problem as these planets in aspect can be quite inflationary. There
are also large debt problems in many countries, companies and individuals. One
of the reasons I’m looking at Gold here is Inflation coupled with the above debt
problems. This may be pointing to serious financial problems late 2019 or 2020.
Watch out for Feb 6 +- 3 tds (trading
days) for SP500, Gold or Crude.
Gold When the
pullback is complete, I’m looking for Gold to move up into mid-March. We may
see another pullback then a rise in Gold over the next few weeks. Gold should
still be the trade of 2019.
Crude's
Crude started up on Dec 24. This should be the Primary cycle trough and we are
entering the 9th week of the Primary cycle. I’m looking for a move down in Crude.
SP500
The Primary cycle trough was on Dec 24th. We are currently entering the
9th week of a new Primary cycle. The
Primary cycle is approx.18 weeks and
is typically composed of 3- 6 week
cycles or 2-9 week cycles. This
Primary cycle should see a turn down between Feb 25 and March 8th, +- 2 weeks.
The Price moving averages, the
15 day sma is just under price and above the 45 day sma which is turning up.
Notice price hit resistance at the 200 day sma.
The 15 day sma is red, the 45
day sma is blue and the light blue is the 200 day sma.
The recent move down to the
Primary low was timing the 18-week Primary cycle and a 2 year cycle. The longer
term cycles (2 year) can distort the shorter term cycles (18 week). As noted
above we may be seeing the 4 year cycle low later in the year although it could
have been at the Dec 24 low.
September 21, 2018 seems to be the crest of the last Primary cycle
and may be the cycle high for the 4 year
cycle.
The following dates may have
significant moves or start of a move. The following aspects are for a reverse
in trend or large range day.
Feb 19 Mercury/Neptune
sextile Saturn
Emphasis
on Neptune / Saturn from Jan 31, 2018. This can manifest as chronic conditions
, the methodical attainment of plans with great pain-staking effort.
Neptune
and Saturn are both in the signs of their rulership. Saturn rules Capricorn and Neptune rules Pisces.
Pluto is also in Capricorn. Venus stands for money (currencies). I’m looking for
volatility as Venus will be in aspect to Pluto then
Uranus.
Feb 20 Sun semi square
Saturn
Difficult
struggles.
Feb 22 Venus conjunct
Pluto
Watch
for changes in crude / equity prices and currencies.. Watch for changes to the banking system or other
financial institutions.
Feb 26 Sun semi square
Pluto
Sudden
movement
March 1 Venus square
Uranus
Sudden
financial moves / movement in currencies.
March 5 Mercury
Retrograde
See
below
March 6 Uranus enters
Taurus
Taurus
rules money / currencies. Uranus is sudden change. This period of time could
affect the banking system and other financial institutions. As noted this could affect
currencies as well. This would include the US buck.
Sun
conjunct Neptune
This aspect should emphasize the
Jupiter / Neptune square and would be good timing for a move in Gold and / or a
turn down in the SP500.
March 9 Saturn parallel
Pluto
I
view the parallel aspect as a mild conjunction. Nevertheless these are two powerful planets which could affects the market sharply.
It could also be signaling some other type of event.
The above aspects are for the
next 2 weeks. A list of powerful outer planets aspects follows. They will be
covered in detail as we approach them.
Mercury Retrograde
This week we have Mercury turning retrograde
on March 5th. The inferior
conjunction between Mercury and the Sun occurs on March 14th and Mercury turns direct again on March 28th. Since this is the inferior
conjunction it is also the heliocentric conjunction between the Sun and
Mercury. There can be a change in trend at any of those dates.
As
a reminder the two planets inside the Earth's orbit are Mercury and Venus. Both
can have inferior and superior conjunctions depending on whether they are on
the Earths side of the Sun or the far side of the Sun.
Inferior
conjunction
Superior conjunction
The following chart shows
Mercury retrograde (red arrow pointing left), Mercury turning direct (blue
arrow pointing right), the geocentric inferior conjunction (small red circle)
and the heliocentric conjunction (small blue circle) on the same day. Note the
swings in the SP500 on any of those dates in the past.
This Mercury retrograde period is occurring in late Pisces, a mutable water sign. Mercury also rules communication, commerce and
trading, that is buying and selling. It has a reputation for problems, both
communication, contracts and wrong decisions or choices.
The Mercury retrograde period is known to be volatile. There is potential for increased volatility and problems for both the Retrograde and Direct dates.
Any aspects, like those noted
above are a minimum of 3 tds (trading days). Longer term aspects will be noted
separately. The following list are planet aspects. There will also be Eclipses,
Fixed stars, cycle charts and other Astrological items.
Longer Term Aspects
2019 Jupiter square Neptune
2020 Jupiter conjunct
Saturn
Jupiter
conjunct Pluto
Saturn
conjunct Pluto
2021 Jupiter squared Uranus
Saturn
square Uranus
2022 Jupiter conjunct
Neptune
Jupiter square Neptune will be
with us for most of the year. Due to retrograde motion Jupiter will square
Neptune 3 times. This combination can point to an increase in spending,
inflation, currencies and potential debt problems and bankruptcies. This could
be on and off all year. Neptune alone is about illusion and delusion. Jupiter
can be very favorable but tends to overdoing things.
Feb 20 may still result in a
turn. See the Bradley Indicator at the end of this section.
If the current volatility
continues watch for a cycle turn during the next 2 weeks.
The following daily chart of the
SP500 is what we have been showing under the 24 Harmonic chart. This is the
basis of what we have been forecasting on.
Following is the 24 Harmonic
chart we have shown for many months.
The Jan 2 date was a big range
day. It is trying to move through the Jupiter Price line (blue)
The next hits are April 10, 2019 and May 24th.
The 4 Year cycle
The above chart shows the 4 year
(red). The last 4 year cycle trough was Feb 2016. The next 4 year cycle should
be Dec 2019 +- 10 months or it was Dec 24, 2018. See the chart above.
From the last few posts:
“This coming year could see an
increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”
See the link under
“Earthquakes”. This is an application from the USGS. Geophysical activity has
been picking up.
There has been a number of
volcano’s erupting as well. Japan, Hawaii, Philippines, others.
On a longer term basis the
following monthly chart of the DJIA
shows the 15 year cycle (red
vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle
(blue lines). The 15 year is due now
or took place April – June 2018. The 45
year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer-term cycle
possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.
Although we do not have enough data the 45 year cycle pointing to Sept 2022
this could also be the 90 year cycle. We do not have enough data to make the 90
year call. For a 90 year cycle I’m
looking at 1842 – 1932 and then 2022.
The following daily chart of
the SP500 shows 2 Envelope channels. Red is the centered
20 week envelope channel.
Blue is the centered 40 week envelope channel. The dark blue squares are the
Sun / Neptune square which is often a short term change in trend.
We have had this noted it was
due for a sell. Also note the dark blue
squares. They are the dates of the Mars square Uranus transit.
The red averages are based on the 20 week so
they are shifted 10 weeks or a ½ cycle.
I brought up Iran on the last
couple of posts. I’ll come back to those charts on any potential signs of
conflict. It is getting close. Watch the news for problems with Iran.
Other
Other cycles and Astrological
events are the 20 year cycle and heliocentric Jupiter in Sagittarius.
The vertical black lines are
the 20 year cycle. Note the lows. It is due again near March 2022 but it needs
a wide orb.
The blue x’s show when
heliocentric Jupiter is in Sagittarius. This, most often, has the market moving
up. The next chart shows both these items. The aspect Heliocentric Jupiter in
Sagittarius came from MMA. And timing solutions.
Another cycle which will be
coming up is the 65 week in the DJIA.
2019 Eclipses
See the previous blog post for more details on the eclipses.
Date Eclipse Saros Cycle Sign
Jan 6, 2019 Solar
Partial 122 15Cp25
Jan 21, 2019 Total
Lunar 134 00Le51
July 2, 2019 Solar
Total 127 10Cn37
July 16, 2019 Partial
Lunar 139 24Cp4
Dec 26, 2019 Solar
Annular 132 4Cp6
The Bradley
Indicator
This stock index forecasting tool was designed by astrologer
Donald Bradley and published in 1947 in a booklet titled "Stock Market
Prediction".
On the cover this tool is called the Planetary Barometer and
inside the booklet it is called a Siderograph. Now it is simply called
"the Bradley". The
Bradley is meant to forecast major and minor turning-points
(where a trend will reverse) in either the Dow Jones Industrial Average or
SP500 indexes. Bradley's work was obviously on the DJIA.
It does not forecast or anticipate whether that
turning-point will be a high or a low. It has no polarity. The Bradley may turn
up while the DJIA turns down. The amplitude of the Bradley swing is also not
important. It only finds periods where trend changes occur.
It should be understood Astrologers in decades gone by who
had no computers, spreadsheets, or databases to analyze data typically worked
with much smaller data sets than we do today. This maybe why the Bradley worked
so well when it first came out in 1947 but now is somewhat unreliable. Now, it
goes through periods where it works fairly well but then can stop operating for
months at a time. Originally it was for geocentric astrology (Earth centered)
but there are now heliocentric models (Sun centered) and others.
In Bradley's own words:
"At no time must the reader gain the impression that a
siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually
do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective
attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock
averages"
So if the Bradley only identifies trend changes, what are
trend changes?
- a rising market changes to a falling market
- a rising market changes to sideways
- a sideways market starts going up
- a sideways market starts going down
- a market going down changes to a rising market
- a falling market starts going sideways
The red line is the Bradley Indicator.
Gold
I was looking for a short move down and it
appears it started on Jan 31. I am now looking for a move up which may have
started on Feb 14th.
On occasion the Primary cycle can extend away
from it’s more normal 18 week length. I’m looking for a move in Gold and I’m
expecting it next week. I’m looking for a move up.
Gold may be the best performing commodity in
the first half of 2019.
I’m expecting a pull back and then up. The red
vertical lines are a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle which is due Feb 21, 2019 +- 3
td’s. I am also looking at March 6 and 7 +- 3 td’s.
The following chart shows two
daily envelope channels. The vertical red lines are a 20 day cycle.
The following chart shows a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle (blue
vertical lines). The last being
Jan 28, 2019. The next is Feb 22, 2019.
The Moon takes 27 days to orbit the Earth and the Sun
takes 27 days to revolve once at the
Sun’s equator.
The red lines headed up are the Mars price lines. Gold had been moving up
and have found both resistance and support at the Mars price line. The darker
red Mars lines are the main aspect. Moving below the red Mars price line was bearish
now we need to move above the red Mars price line as a positive sign for a move
up in Gold. Gold may follow the red, Mars price line up. Watch closely.
The small blue x’s on the chart
show when heliocentric Mercury is in
Sagittarius. We often see changes in trend in Gold when Mercury enters
heliocentric Sagittarius.
Looking at this whole chart it
is based on a 24 harmonic. If you count each line from one darker red line to
the next you will find there are 15 of them. 15 * 24 degrees = 360 degrees.
The following chart shows when
Mars enters a new sign (red squares). It often affects Gold. Mars is in Aries and changes signs into
Taurus on Feb 14, 2019. Note the sharp move up.
Watch for geophysical activity
around this timeframe.
Crude
Oil is recovering from a strong
move down. The low on Dec 24 may be the Primary cycle low and may turn out to
be a larger cycle low.
Price broke through the 45 day
sma and the 15 day sma.
On Jan 13 we had Jupiter square
Neptune. Both are co-rulers of Pisces which rules crude amongst other things.
As mentioned, this square will be seen off and on during 2019. Among other
things this square can indicate a period where things get overdone including
the price of crude. Watch the Fibonacci retracement levels for turning pints.
This puts us entering week 9th of the Primary cycle.
On the next chart note how price
often follows the Sun price line up (green line) and often stops and reverses
at the Sun price line or the Pluto price line (blue). We often get big range days. The red vertical lines are the 40 cd (calendar
day) lines. Crude price often bounce on a Pluto price line (blue) as well.
Watch the green Sun price line
and see if crude follows that price line up and look for a potential turn down
near the 40 day cycle.
And finally, a weekly chart of
crude showing a 17 / 34 month cycle. Red vertical lines. The 17 month cycle
chart is shown below. Note the Fibonacci retracement at 23.6% or 59.41.
