March 2010 6 week Cycle

As suspected the 50 week cycle trough appears to have hit Feb 5th, although we were expecting it mid March. As noted shorts should have been covered as the SP500 broke the 61.8% retracement level. It also appears a 3-4 week trading cycle hit on Feb 25th.

The dates around March 15 - 17 still appear to have some significance from an Astrological perspective. We are now in the time frame for a 5-7 week Major cycle trough. This would be the first major cycle of the 18 week primary cycle which started on Feb 5th. Therefore be aware we may have a pullback next week.

Normally we would have looked for a pull back to the 61.*% retracement level or approx. 1110 on the SP but this market has been so bullish that may be too deep a target. Watch for a turn down between March 11-17 and probably March 15-17.

March 2010

We are now approaching the timeframe we had identified as the ideal spot for the 50 week low. Please bear in mind Feb 5th could have been it, as it satified all our technical requirements for a 50 week low although it was quite shallow.

The following SP500chart shows the 61.8% fib retracement held firm although it appears the MACD and stochastic indicators may be curling up for another assault. If at any time 1110 is broken (and I'll give it to 1115) then I will be covering my shorts. We may go up to test the 1110 area one more time. Again we are looking for the low in the March 10-17th timeframe.









This may be another demonstration of using astrology with technical indicators. March 10th has Mars turning direct and March 17 is a Uranus shadow date. Both dates are associated with turns in the stock market. They are also associated with turns in Gold and precious metals as well. The whole month has strong astrological aspects and could be very volatile. Debt in particular (Greece, Dubai etc.) will probably in the fore front of the news. There is a long term aspect forming called a T square. It involves the slow moving planets Saturn, Uranus and Pluto. Although not exact, it will be hit by aspects from Venus, the Sun and Mercury during March 2010. The longer term aspect will become more exact during July and August of this year. This may be a very unpleasant time not only in the stock market, but other areas of life as well. This blog will stick to the stock market, however, I will say it could be a time for more geophysical activity. Get ready for a wild month in the stock market. The week of March 15th looks particularly interesting.

In addition to the Astro activity the 108 trading day cycle hits on March 8 / 9 in the SP500. The 108 trading days are identified by the red lines on the following chart.












Since we spend most of our time looking at intra-day charts but seldom publish them, the folloing is an hourly chart of SPY an etf for the SP500. Two things worthy of note. There appears to be strong resistance in the 111.00 111.50 area and there is descending broadening wedge pattern (red lines) forming. The latter tends to be bullish. Since this is an hourly chart we may see upward pressure Monday which could mean a short term top either Monday or early in the week.
















Le Corbusier
”Behind the wall, the Gods play with numbers"

St. Francis of Assisi
"What everyone is looking for, is what is looking."

Neils Bohr
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."

Gold

See the following chart for Gold. The sloping red lines show a falling wedge which is typically a bullish reversal pattern. We have to see if Gold crosses back into the wedge or takes off up from here. Notice also the fib retracements from the top in early December '09 to the bottom in early February '10. Gold is trying to break out of the 38.2% retracement. 50% may act as resistance as well. These levels should be watched closely.

The vertical red lines show the 110 trading day cycle which would typically point to a low around March 9 2010. It's quite possible Gold follows the wedge line down and puts in a low around March 9th then moves up. It should be mentioned March 10th is a Mars direct date, which is often associated with reversals in the the price of Gold.













Oil












US$

The US$ has been driving everything, stocks, gold and oil. The following weekly chart shows the US$ in an uptrend with $.82 as a target which is at the 50% retracement of the move down. The US$ only being strong in relative terms with the week Euro and questionalable other currencies. If the US buck weakins, I would expect gold and the commodities to really take off.

50 Week Low Continued....

We are still waiting for the 50 week low and are sitting on shorts. It should be pointed out we had Feb 5th as the 6th week low, however, that low satisfied all minimum requirements for a 50 week low. If short we must be most careful here.

The SP500 has shown some bullishness since the Feb 5 low. If this index breaks above 1120 and therefore also above the 61/8% retracement we will be closing short position, though not necessarily going long. It is surprising that with all the negative news, FED rates, Greece Dubai etc. etc. the market is still bullish.



Even with this somewhat bullish picture, the Astros coming up in March should be more bearish. We still like the dates around March 10 and March 17 as lows, or atleast CITs (change in trend).

During March we will have the Sun, Mercury and Venus translating the Saturn / Uranus / Pluto opposition / square. All Astros nuts should agree, this would be good timing for a low. Unfortunately it may also indicate some rather nasty (geopolitical or earth disturbances) world events.

Watch the US$ to get a position on stocks, gold and crude as well. We could see it pull back into early March which would give a surge to stocks, gold and crude.

Le Corbusier
”Behind the wall, the Gods play with numbers"