SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise we are
entering the 18th week of the
Primary 1
cycle which started on Feb. 2nd 2015. This cycle is
aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15 to 21 weeks.
Being the 18th week we should be looking
for the crest in the Primary / nominal 18 week cycle. I'm looking at May 20th to be that crest and we
should therefore be headed down into the nominal 18 week cycle trough. At this point following are the highs in the US
indexes.
DJIA May 19, 2015
DJTI Nov 28, 2014
SP500 May 20, 2015
NYSE May 21, 2015
RUT Apr 15, 2015
On the above chart price of the
SP500, the 15 day sma is above the 45 day sma but curling over down. Price is
now below both the 15 and 45 day sma's. All pointing to an index about to go
down to a trough and within the range of the 18 week cycle we defined last
February (see red line at the bottom right on the chart).
That said we also mentioned last
week an adjusted Bradley indicator (Bradley-Shramenko), the brown wavy line on
the chart. It turned up on March 26 and the markets started to move lower. As
we have said the indicator does not indicate polarity. So the indicator moving
up when the market index is moving down is quite normal. The next turn is on
Monday June 8th. IF the adjusted Bradley indicator is
working this would indicate a turn up in the markets as the indicator moves
down. I've been looking for a move down in the markets so Monday +- 2 td's must be
watched closely.
Also note the indicator has a
shallow move on June 15th which
could indicate a turn as well.
So we should be heading down into
the trough for this nominal 18 week cycle which should be between Now - 07/06/2015 if it is a normal
nominal 18 week cycle as the range is 15 to 21 weeks (see red line at bottom
right hand corner). There are other indications for a move down, as seen below.
Video
From last weeks market letter
"...From the list of events above I'm looking for the
US markets to move down to a trough for the nominal 18 week cycle and 168 td
cycle. Approx. dates for a low could be June 1, 4, 11, 12 ,14 , 24 all +- 3
td's. 1 and 4 seem a little too close. June
4th and 5th could be important with Pluto at 15 degrees of Capricorn on
June 4th and the Sun on 14 degrees of Gemini which is the heliocentric Nodes of
Uranus. Jupiter trine Uranus on June
22nd has usually been at a high but not always. The market crash of October
1987 found Jupiter trine Uranus at the bottom
of the crash zone."
Back to this week
We got the move down or at least
the start of a move down last week. I'll update the dates in the subscription
letter.
The other current cycle we've been
following is the 168 td (trading
day) cycle. Like last week the chart shows two possibilities shown as a blue vertical line (May 26th) and a
black vertical line, coming up (June 18th).
I'm looking at the blue line on May 20th as being the
crest of the 168 td cycle and another indication we should be moving down.
I'm looking for continued strife
and discord. This could include social unrest, police shootings, accidents.
Water and crude have been in the news and should continue with the emphasis on Neptune in it's own sign, Pisces and Mercury retrograde,
also in it's own sign of Gemini, a mutable air sign. Mercury joins both the Sun
and Mars in Gemini and the latter two will be conjunct on June 14 a signature that will emphasize hostile activity and with a
history of sharp moves in the market given a broad range.
During the last few weeks Mercury
retrograde and Neptune preparing for retrograde many people feel out of sorts.
The path forward is unclear in the markets and in everyday life. Late this
coming week has Mercury turning
stationary direct on June 11 and Neptune
stationary retrograde on June 12th. If we happen to still be moving down
watch for a reversal up near the June
11, 12 dates. If we are moving up watch for a reversal down near these
dates. Neptune retrograde has a history of occurring near double tops and bottoms. I've been looking at May 20th as the crest so it's possible we see the markets make another crest close to the Neptune retrograde date, June 12th.
From last weeks post following is
some history of the Mercury retrograde and direct periods. The red arrow
pointing left is the retrograde date, the blue arrow pointing right is the
direct date, the red dot is the geocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction and the
blue dot is the heliocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction. The I and S denote the Inferior
and Superior conjunctions.
At any rate, Neptune
is in a strong position in Pisces, the sign that it rules. As mentioned last
week this should emphasize events dealing with water, crude and Natural Gas.
Things that Neptune rules.
The Mercury retrograde period is
known to be volatile. Also, with Mars in Gemini (war of words or real war?) market
volatility should increase. Geophysical (earthquakes, volcanoes) could also
increase.
The last few weeks we have mentioned
Venus being "Out of Bounds" OOB. Venus comes back in bounds on June 2 very close to Mars going "Out of Bounds". Another
potentially volatile signature and potential change in trend.
To repeat from last week and
stress the points on Neptune above.
One of the aspect coming up is Neptune turning retrograde. Neptune
is in a powerful position in Pisces, the sign that it rules. Neptune
rules crude, natural gas, water, beliefs (religious beliefs?), socialism,
communism, left-wing politics, fraud, misinformation, swindling, loss and vice,
the soul and psychic connections. It is in each sign approx. 13-14 years but it
varies quite a bit due to retrograde motion. Neptune
was hit by a square from Mars and a square from the Sun before the retrograde
period. Neptune has a history of occurring near market double tops and bottoms. In our case right now this could mean a retest of the May 20th crest.
In summary I'm expecting
the major US
market indices to move down. This may have started on May 20th for the SP500.
We could get a move up first (Neptune double top) but we are getting late in the nominal 18 week
cycle and in time for the 168 td cycle which may have seen it's crest on May
20th as well.
One other option is we
bounce and go up into the June 22
area where we have Jupiter trine Uranus.
This aspect has a history of occurring near tops. This is not always the case however.
For example Jupiter trine Uranus
occurred near the bottom of the October
1987 crash.
We are looking for longer term
cycles, 4 and 6 year, to end this year or 1st quarter 2016. The 4 year should
end at a Primary cycle low which may be distorted. The 6 year may end there as
well. The troughs for the 4 and 6 year cycles will be much deeper. There are
other cycles coming due in the first half of 2015 which are reserved for
subscribers.
Gold
Gold appears to have put in a put in a Primary cycle 1
trough on March 17th. This was 1 td after the
Uranus / Pluto square. This puts us entering the 12th week of the nominal 18 week during this coming week.
Gold put in a high on Monday May 18th, the same day as
Mercury turning retrograde and then headed down and it is still headed down and
rests on the 78.6% Fib retracement of the move up from Nov 7, 2014 to Jan 22, 2015.
Gold could move lower here and may have seen the top for this nominal 18 week
cycle. May 18th may have been the
crest of the nominal 18 week cycle. This was also 2 td's from the time Fib of 2.618 noted on previous posts. This was based on the move down in Gold
from October 2012 to June 2013.
We are monitoring another cycle for Gold which will hit in
the summer but reserved for subscribers. That cycle and the placement of
Jupiter in the summer may be pointing to a strong reversal in Gold. More on
this as we approach the reversal time frame.
As noted last week, Mercury retrograde has a strong history
of changes in trend for Gold close to the retrograde date. In this case it was
to the day. The direct date also has a history of changes in Gold price. That's
June 11th this week. On the following chart the red arrow pointing left is the
retrograde date, the blue arrow pointing right is the direct date, the red dot
is the geocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction and the blue dot is the
heliocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction. The I and S denote the Inferior and Superior
conjunctions.
If we have just seen the crest on May 18th, Gold should be moving down
from here for a few weeks, potentially a couple of months. This would be
opposite the US buck. With the Astrological aspects Gold may be very volatile,
like the main market indices.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus
(green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold broke through the Jupiter price
line and appears to be moving down to at least the next Venus price line.
Heliocentric Mercury leaves Sagittarius and moves into
Capricorn on June 7th. This may have a short term reversal effect for Gold.
Crude
This coming week of June
8 we should be entering the 12th
week of a Primary cycle which started Mar
18, 2015.
I'm watching the dates around any Neptune aspects and the Neptune stationary retrograde date on June 12th. Like stocks and Gold, crude
could be very volatile for the next few weeks. For example May 29th had Mercury
waxing square to Neptune . There was almost a
$3 swing up on Friday.
Other Astrological dates are reserved for subscribers.
Crude appears to have put in a "W" bottom. Since the
shooting star doji on May 6th Crude has been in sideways consolidation. Crude,
like other commodities is being affected by the US $ moves and news out of the
mid-East.
As seen on the following chart the Neptune
price line (green) gave resistance on June 2nd and 3rd then fell through the
Jupiter price line (orange) but ended the week near the top of the day. This
was after the OPEC meetings. Watch early next week to see if crude can hold
above the Jupiter price line at $58.70
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 2nd half 2015
dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in July) are available
for purchase.
