To recap we have been forcasting a primary cycle low between Nov 9 - 23 and more probably Nov 13 / 16, 2009. That is we have been looking for a low in the red box on the following chart.
Now, however, the SP500 has met all the minimum criteria for a primary cycle low having just occured. It has been the minimum 2 weeks from the crest (PT on the chart) and price has broken through the 25 day simple moving average (the green line on the above chart). Should we now buy? These are the difficult decisions in trading.
My decision is that the primary low is not in yet and I'll await the Nov 13 - 16 time frame. If at any time price exceeds the high om Oct 20th, 2009 then we must realize our error, close any shorts and get long.
Why Nov 13 / 16. Nov. 13 is 1/2 the number of trading days of the move down from Oct 11, 2007 to March 6, 2009 and Nov. 16 is 178 trading days from the March 6 low. (178 is 89 * 2, 89 being a Fib number). Nov. 16 is also a new moon and the first trading after the Saturn Pluto square. Nov. 19 has the Moon conjunct Pluto at 1:30pm and Pluto will be at mid-heaven (directly overhead) at 2:07pm. All times are based on EST in New York city.
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