This being the crest we need to look for the trough of the nominal 6 week. See the following chart of the SP500.
Some notes. The chart displays time fibs as the red verical bars from the high on Jan 19 to the low on Feb 5. This shows the next time fib of 2.618 on March 26th. I often calculate the time fibs from Solar Eclipse points which in this case would be one bar earlier on Jan 15 and would give a date of March 31st. The above are based on trading days.
Using a Gann approach and a cycle of 30 calendar days we would get a date of
April 6th which is from the Feb 5th low and is shown as the blue vertical line.
On March 25 the Sun and Moon are trine each other and both trine the antiscion point (4Sag59) of the last solar eclipse on Jan 15, 2010. The moon is almost on the ascendant at that time which is approx. 2:00pm in New York. This may mark a short term CIT.
Based on the above we are looking for a low between March 25 and April 6 for this 6 week cycle trough.
Can we get any closer?
The period around March 26 has other significant events.
March 26 is 34 tds from the Feb 5th low. Important fib number.
March 27 and 30th have Venus then Mercury squaring the Jan 15 Solar Eclipse point.
March 29 is a full moon. The full moon is in a loose sqaure to Pluto in Capricorn, however, Pluto is almost at a retrograde point, which means it is almost standing still and more powerful than usual, if that is possible.
April 6 Pluto goes retrograde.
There are of course many other Astros events going on, but from the above I am looking for a 6 week cycle trough in the SP500 around March 25, 29 or April 6th.
I'll be using technicals to try and fine tune the bottom as we approach those dates.
Of course if the markets shoot up over the highs of March 17 then all of the above is quite worthless.
Watch 1147 for important support then 1128-1130 in the SP500. A crash through either and we could be looking at a panic low forming.
The plunge protection team in the US has done such a good job of managing the markets up, I don't believe we will be looking at a panic situation.
Oil
The atached chart shows Oil. The middle pane is a detrended 20 day average. The blue vertical lines are 37 td. It can be seen the 37 td has been very consitent while Oil has been in the current range fron 70.00 - 83.00. It appears Oil is heading down for a low and trough of the 6 week cycle around March 30 /31.
Longer term cycle point to higher highs in July 2010 so this may give us a chance to get well positioned. Look at the 18 month cycle. It should be noted there is no fundamental reason Oil is priced at this range. Demand is down and supplies are up and increasing. One can only surmise there is either a war premium built in, that is a potential war with Iran or the speculators have driven Oil prices up in which case they could bring them down very quickly.
I'm looking for a short term low in Gold either Friday March 26 or Monday March 29th. March 26th is 34tds(fib) from the Feb 5th low and 17 tds from a high. I bring up Monday because we often get turns on Moon events and the Moon is at perigee and it's southward crossing on March 28 nad the full moon is on March 29. Either way, we should have a low on one of those two dates. Technically Gold does not look strong so any low forming here may see a slight rebound but Gold needs some technicals to improve. Higher highs would help.
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