As we await the “Cliff” negotiations this
post will cover the next month and a little more.
SP500
The SP500, like all markets await the above
mentioned cliff. Beyond that the SP is in the 7th week of the first
Major cycle (nominal 6 week) of the Primary cycle which started Nov 16, 2012.
With the increase on Dec 31, 2012 it may be starting the 1st week of
the 2nd Major cycle in the primary cycle. It is therefore due for at
least a bounce. This will be totally dependent on what happens with the Cliff
negotiations. Assuming it is passed then a short upswing. After the Cliff
negotiations have ended the market then realize nothing much has changed in the
world economy and the markets are built on a foundation of sand.
We await the slide which should start by
mid Jan’13 at the latest with a bottom in late Jan / early February 2013.
We have the 33/66 week cycle due and the
fib count of 987 td from the March 2009 lows.
On the following weekly chart of the SP500
the red vertical line is the 33/66 week cycle. I’m looking for this to be close
to a low.
On the following daily chart of the DJIA the blue vertical
lines are the fib count from the March 2009 lows. I’m looking for this to be
close to a low.
From here, early Feb 2013 we should go up but I’m looking
for another low around late March. This could be the 4 year low or it waits
until Mid-June to mid July ’13.
Following is a weekly chart of the SP500 showing the current 4 year cycle which started at the March 2009 lows. The nominal 4 year cycle is most often broken down into three 15.5 month. So far this 4 year cycle has followed this cycle type almost exactly. Cycles are typically distorted at the end of the cycle so I don't expect the 4 year to end exactly on the 3rd 15.5 month cycle but I do expect it to trough out late Jan / early Feb or late March / early April or mid June to mid July. My first choice at this point is the June / July time frame, my second choice is the March / April time frame.
It should be noted the next 3 Uranus / Pluto squares which have been directly associated with the debt problems are:
May 20, 2013
Nov 1, 2013
November 21, 2013 this is heliocentrically and only occurs once.
Also Mars translates the square on
March 22-27
July 27- Aug 1
Dec 25 -31
I'll go into detail on the eclipses on a future post. The first Solar eclipse is on May 9, 2013 and is still in the Taurus / Scorpio signs. These are money signs.
Gold
If we use the 8.5 year Gold cycle it appears we are in the time frame for a Gold low then up. Breaking the 8.5 years down into 3 cycles of 34 months (a fib number) each we get the Sept 2011 low. We would now be in the time frame for a 17 month low (1/2 of 34 months) and possible 4.5 year low. The time frame is late Jan / early Feb 2013. These longer term cycles need a broad range. Following is a weekly chart of Gold. If a major low is forming in the late Jan / early Feb 2013 look to buy.
On a shorter term basis Gold moved lower than the Primary cycle trough which occurred on Nov 5, 2012. Gold maybe starting it's second Major cycle but since it went lower than the Primary the cycle is bearish. Watch price action to see if this changes.
On a shorter term basis Gold moved lower than the Primary cycle trough which occurred on Nov 5, 2012. Gold maybe starting it's second Major cycle but since it went lower than the Primary the cycle is bearish. Watch price action to see if this changes.
Crude
Crude follows a 16 week and 24 week cycles. The following weekly chart of crude shows the 16 week cycle (red vertical lines), the 24 week cycle (blue vertical lines) and the green vertical lines where the 16 and 24 week cycles meet. The next meeting of the 16 and 24 week cycles is Feb 4, 2013. Looking back this could be a high or a low although crests have been more common.
Crude follows a 16 week and 24 week cycles. The following weekly chart of crude shows the 16 week cycle (red vertical lines), the 24 week cycle (blue vertical lines) and the green vertical lines where the 16 and 24 week cycles meet. The next meeting of the 16 and 24 week cycles is Feb 4, 2013. Looking back this could be a high or a low although crests have been more common.
General
Longer term I expect the world economy to be flat to down into 2017 and probably not picking up steam until 2020. It will have some ups and downs in the mean time. There should be some tremendous technology breakthroughs during and after the Uranus / Pluto square. The last time Uranus / Pluto were conjunct was the 1960's. This was a tumultuous time but remember the internet was invented then (sorry, it wasn't Al Gore) so were mini computer, Unix, and a number of programming languages.
Longer term I expect the world economy to be flat to down into 2017 and probably not picking up steam until 2020. It will have some ups and downs in the mean time. There should be some tremendous technology breakthroughs during and after the Uranus / Pluto square. The last time Uranus / Pluto were conjunct was the 1960's. This was a tumultuous time but remember the internet was invented then (sorry, it wasn't Al Gore) so were mini computer, Unix, and a number of programming languages.
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