Financial Astrology - Feb 9, 2014

SP500

This blog changed on Jan 1, 2014 We will no longer provide turn dates for the SP500 as these are being sold for the first half of 2014 see -> 

http://www.trading-daze.blogspot.ca/2013/12/2014-offer-key-dates-1st-half-of-2014.html

I should say we are entering one of the most dangerous periods of the year. We have significant dates stretching from late February to late April 2014. The forecast dates supplied should identify the significant swings and or lows. Our first major date was Jan 20, 2014 and it identified the sharp slide into early February.

This same period from February to late April 2014 could see increases in earthquakes and volcanic activity. Social unrest, resistance and war or rumors of war could also be on the agenda. The likelihood of these events increases in April 2014.

Gold

Gold is in the 6th week of the Primary (nominal 18 week) cycle. As such we are looking for a crest and down into the trough of the first Major cycle (nominal 6 week). It is possible the very shallow pullback into Jan 31 was the Major cycle trough where Gold broke below the 15 dma. Gold has spent some time going sideways and needs to break through the descending trendline (blue) on the following daily Gold chart. If we haven't had the trough Feb 10-12 would be good timing to see it. Both Gold and Silver have been crawling sideways which sometimes results in a sharp move, and quite possibly up as they appear to have been basing, especially Silver.

I should point out in the longer term Dec 31, 2013 was the 25 week low and it was a retest of the 4.25 year cycle trough on June 28, 2013. These points are what are making me look for a positive outcome in the short term. We should be near the beginning of the 4.25 year and 25 week cycles. The next 25 week low cycle puts us in June 2014. This is close to the seasonal sweet spot for Gold and we should be going up from there. Remember my comments about Mercury retrograde and Gold from last week. I'm still looking at Jan 27 as the crest of the Major cycle (nominal 6 week). 

What happens in between? I'm looking for a lower high in Gold and PM's in the late March 2014 time frame then down into a low in June then up. In between these dates if war events are transpiring or conclusive evidence that Gold has been manipulated or physically not there, it could jump quickly. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but something does not add up with Gold prices. Following is a weekly chart of Gold. The red vertical lines show the 25 week cycle and the red double arrows near the end of the prices is a 3 pass of the Mars / Uranus opposition.

Don't forget, we have a couple of more Silver dates from last weeks post. I don't think they will be as strong as what we have witnessed.

Silver
Silver looks like it is basing. The following chart shows the Venus price line (green) and Jupiter price line blue. Silver continues to meander around the Jupiter price line and obviously needs to break out. Breakouts often happen (up or down) when the Venus, Jupiter price lines cross. The next Venus Jupiter cross is March 7, 2014. Somewhat later than I have been anticipating. 

As mentioned under Gold these types of formations can result in a fast pop up or down. Time wise we are due for a move up, so it could be sharp and it could be early next week.

Crude
Crude moved further up than anticipated. The following daily chart for crude certainly looks like the Primary cycle trough was on January 9 and we are therefore in the 5th week of a new Primary cycle which looks bullish. The 15dma just crossed up through the 45 dma and price is above both. I was looking for the high on Dec 27 as being firm resistance but now I'm not so sure. I need to see more price action to determine the trend. If we are now in the 5th week of a new Primary cycle then the 7th week will be starting Feb 24, in the middle of our panic low with 2 major aspects which could affect crude and Natgas. They are the Sun conjunct Neptune on Feb 23 and Jupiter waxing square Uranus on Feb 26. Jupiter and Neptune both rule crude and NatGas.

Following is a daily chart for crude.

Looking at a daily crude chart with both the Sun and Pluto price lines, crude has just arrived back at the Pluto price line (black). Notice the last time it attempted to cross over this line it could nor stay there for more than part of the day. A strong move through this line at almost exactly $100 would be very bullish for Crude. Obviously a fail would not.

NatGas
I'm continuing to watch NatGas. Like crude it went up further than expected and may go much further. Various pundits and media types assume crude and Natgas are going up because it is a little colder this winter. And they get paid for this information. "Cold in the winter".

US$ 

I have concerns about the US$ but looking for the March / April time frame to assess where we are. The US dollar could come under extreme pressure which would affect many markets.