This has been a difficult time
forecasting the markets. Looking back the markets have just reached the January
2018 highs although there have been ups and downs in between.
Bond yields have been inching up
and there is descension between members of the FED on more raises. The whole
environment seems to be preparing for inflation .
SP500
The last Primary cycle trough
was June 28, 2018. We are now about to enter the 12th week of the
new Primary and in the 2nd 6 week cycle which may be about to dip.
Price is above the 15 day sma
and above the 45 day sma and the 15 day sma is above the 45 day sma. Friday
ended with a small doji.
Realizing we had a bad call I’m
still looking for a dip in the USA indices. Coming up we have.:
All dates are a minimum of +- 3 tds (trading days)
Sept 18 Mars square
Uranus
Sept 22 Sun enters
Libra.
The Sun
entering a new sign often results in changes in trends. Watch for open enemies.
The following daily chart shows
the SP500 is just above the January 2018 highs.
The following daily chart of the
SP500 is what we have been showing under the 24 Harmonic chart. Look at the
area in the red circle. This is the basis of what we have been forecasting on.
Following is the 24 Harmonic
chart we have shown for many months.
The next hits are Sept. 25, 2018 then Nov 13, 2018.
Both could be big moves or big
range days.
Also hitting at this time is a
162 week cycle which is close to 3 years. For you Tesla fans
162 = ( 3 * 6 * 9 ).
The 9 month cycle
The above chart shows the 9
month or 39 week cycle (blue vertical lines). It was due and appears to have
formed in late January. The 20 week cycle was added as well (red vertical lines).
Any green lines are a combination of the 20 and 40 week cycles.
From the last few posts:
“This coming year could see an
increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”
Following are the significant
earthquakes (> 6.0) so far in January 2018.
Jan 23 Alaska 7.9
Jan 10 Honduras 7.5
Jan 14 Peru 7.1
Jan 19 Mexico 6.3
Jan 21 Chile 6.3
Jan 25 Russia 6.2
Feb 16 Mexico 7.2
Feb 25 Papua New Guinea 7.5
Mar 6 Papua New Guinea 6.7
Mar 8 Papua New Guinea 6.8
Mar 24 Papua New Guinea 6.3
Mar 24 Southeast Indian Ridge 6.3
Mar 25 Indonesia 6.4
Mar 26 Papua New Guinea 6.6
Mar 29 Papua New Guinea 6.9
Apr 2 Bolivia 6.8
Apr 7 Papua New Guinea 6.3
Apr 10 Chile 6.2
Apr 19 Prince Edward Island 6.0
May 5 Tajikistan 6.2
May 5 Papua New Guinea 6.0
There’s more
There has been a number of
volcano’s erupting as well. Japan and Hawaii.
On a longer term basis the
following monthly chart of the DJIA
shows the 15 year cycle (red
vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle
(blue lines). The 15 year is due now,
the 45 year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer term cycle
possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.
The following daily chart of
the SP500 shows 2 Envelope channels. Red is the centered
20 week envelope channel.
Blue is the centered 40 week envelope channel. The dark blue squares are the
Sun / Neptune square which is often a short term change in trend.
We have had this noted it was
due for a sell. Also so note the dark
blue squares. They are the dates of the Mars square Uranus transit.
We are entering the difficult time mentioned
over the last few months.
The envelope channel charts are easy to
calculate. In the above case the blue lines are based on a 40 day average but
when they are plotted they are centered. For a 40 day it will be shifted by 20
days which is the ½ cycle.
The red averages are based on the 20 week so
they are shifted 10 weeks or a ½ cycle.
August 11th was the 3rd and last Eclipse of the summer.
Gold
The Primary cycle in Gold has been difficult to
ascertain. There was a Primary cycle trough on Dec 12, 2017 but determining the
next Primary trough has been very difficult.
We may have seen a low on Aug 16th but it must be confirmed. This was 4 trading
days after the Lunar Eclipse on Aug 11.
On occasion the Primary cycle can extend away
from it’s more normal 18 week length. This looks like one of them. I’m looking
for astrological aspects which have a history of changing the trend for Gold.
Mars changing signs into Aquarius has a history of moves in Gold. This will be Sept 10.
Other signals that a move in Gold is imminent
is Saturn turning Direct on Sept 6th
and Sept 7 when the Sun is in
opposition to Neptune.
Seasonally Gold is usually flat over the early
summer months with a history of moving up starting in August.
Price is below the 15 sma and below the 45 day
sma., This pattern with a possible Primary trough on Aug 16 may point to a
change in Gold price. Gold price often moves down 2 to 4 weeks after a new
Primary cycle commences and then continues with a move up. We are currently 3
weeks along.
The following chart shows two
daily envelope channels like the chart for the SP500 above. The blue squares
are the Sun square Neptune which often results in a short term change in trend.
We should be getting close to a buy.
The following chart shows a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle (blue
vertical lines). The next being Sept 17,
2018. The Moon takes 27 days to
orbit the Earth and the Sun takes 27 days to revolve once at the Sun’s equator.
The red lines headed up are the Mars price lines. Gold had been moving
sideways and have found both resistance and support at the Mars price line. The
darker red Mars lines are the main aspect. Moving below the red Mars price line
was bearish now we need to move above the red Mars price line as a positive
sign for a move up in Gold.
The small x’s on the chart show
when heliocentric Mercury is in Sagittarius. We often see changes in trend in
Gold.
Looking at this whole chart it
is based on a 24 harmonic. If you count each line from one darker red line to
the next you will find there are 15 of them. 15 * 24 degrees = 360 degrees.
The following chart shows when
Mars enters a new sign.(red squares).
. On September 11 Mars will
re-enter Aquarius. On Nov 16 Mars moves into Pisces.
A turn is possible near either
of these dates.
Crude
Oil appears we have put in Primary low on June 18th. We would be
entering the 12th week of a new
Primary cycle. With price action at both the 15 dau sma and 45 day sma’s I’m
looking for a breakout from a short term pullback. Watch for support at the 45
sma and possible sharp move if support fails.
I’m leaning to June 18 being the
trough of the Primary Cycle. This was also the date Neptune turned retrograde.
Neptune and Jupiter rule crude. August
19 had Jupiter trine Neptune, both co-rule crude. In addition, Mercury
changes to direct motion, another sign of change.
There are many issues with
Crude. The new Shanghai crude exchanged opened on March 26. This should have a
negative effect of the Petrodollar (US Dollar) and possibly cause the US to
lose it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Watch this over the next few
weeks / months. As Crude is sold in Yuan, purchasers are given the option to
exchange Yuan to Gold. Yes there is a relatively new Gold exchange as well.
They sell physical Gold rather than paper Gold as is often the case in the US.
On Friday Crude was down as other commodities were also affected by the Euro
moves.
Crude started up on June 18 when
Neptune turned retrograde.
Note how price often follows the
Sun price line up and often stops and reverses at the Pluto price line. We often get big range days. The next
day would be Sept 11th. Currently
crude price has bounced down to the Sun price line (green). If crude moves
below 64.88 it could continue down. Crude is being affected by geopolitical
events, and the economy.
Looking at the following chart
there is a prominent Head and Shoulders pattern. This pattern is typically
stronger when the right shoulder is lower. This is the sign of a top and down.
Gold closed at 1193$. We have been waiting to buy like you mentioned in July. T+3 is already from Sep 11th,2018. But nothing changed.
ReplyDeleteWatch Gold on and after Sept 18. That is Mars square Uranus. Often puts in a low then up. None of these are 100%. I'm picking dates and time periods that have had a history with moves in the selected stock or commodity. In this case Gold.
ReplyDeleteHi sir,
DeleteS&P has pullback and should we go short now???
also there was mars square uranus on 2nd August amd May 16th but there were no gold rallies then?
DeleteI think the upcoming Venus retrograde station is more of a definite date. Also the date Mars moves out of the shadow zone is something to watch.
ReplyDeleteI would agree, they are potentially strong dates but they are a few weeks in the future.
ReplyDeleteHey sir, s&p500 is still going up. What happens now? You sad a big move down?????
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ReplyDelete