Summary
SP500. It is possible the recent low was the 4 year low on December 24,
2018 or it is still forming. I’m now thinking of the 4 year being in front
of us, perhaps near year end. See the chart below, however, more analysis is
required before we make a final call.
This does look like the Primary
cycle low (18 week) on Dec 26 so we are 5 weeks along. Looking out 2 weeks we may see a high late January to early
February.
If the current volatility
continues watch for a cycle turn near February
11, 2019. This is the 33 week cycle.
As mentioned before Jupiter
square Neptune on January 13th will be with us for most of the year
due to retrograde motion of the two planets. This could bring in inflation and
volatility in currencies.
Gold On the Gold
chart we are in the 22nd week of the Primary cycle started on Aug 6, 2018. The
surge today in precious metals today may be due to currency fluctuations. Gold
may be the trade of 2019.
Crude's Crude started
up on Dec 24. This should be the Primary cycle trough and we are entering the 5rd
week of the Primary cycle.
SP500
The last Primary cycle trough started
on June 28, 2018. We could and did
have a secondary pull back, then a waterfall down move. The Primary cycle
trough was on Dec 24th. We are
currently in the 4th week of a new
Primary cycle. I’m watching for a pullback to the 6 week low or a high late
January to early February.
The Price moving averages, the
15 day sma is below price and price is above the 45 day sma.
The 15 day sma is curling up.
The recent move down was timing
the 18-week Primary cycle and a 2 year cycle. The longer term cycles (2 year)
can distort the shorter term cycles (18 week). As noted above we may have seen the 4 year cycle low or it is later in
the year.
September 21 seems to be the crest of the last Primary cycle and
may be the cycle high for the 4 year
cycle.
The following dates may have
significant moves or start of a move. The following aspects are for a reverse
in trend or large range day.
Jan 25 Mars trine
Jupiter
Confidence
and energy.
Finish a successful activity. Unpleasant decision with good results.
Finish a successful activity. Unpleasant decision with good results.
Like
Mars square Saturn this signature effects Gold as well.
Jan 27 Jupiter
parallel Saturn
Separation from luck. Buildings. Change of residence.
Jan 31 Saturn sextile
Neptune
Positive for Crude and Gold
Also chronic conditions. Treacherous diseases.
Also chronic conditions. Treacherous diseases.
Feb 1 Mars square
Pluto
Mars
recently passed 0 degrees declination from south to north making Mars stronger than usual. With Pluto there is danger of
destruction and loss. This square may be echoing
the conflict between Trump and the Democratic party.With
Mars, the energy is there.
Feb 2 Venus trine
Uranus
Can
be a powerful signature although it can manifest as a potent signature or mild.
Feb 3 Venus enters
Capricorn
Gives
Venus a more staid conservative feel. Venus stands for money amongst other
things.
February may see volatility in
the markets and possible confrontation or war-like activity.
Jupiter square Neptune will be
with us for most of the year. Due to retrograde motion Jupiter will square
Neptune 3 times. This combination can point to an increase in spending,
inflation and potential debt problems and bankruptcies. This could be on and
off all year. Neptune alone is about illusion and delusion. Jupiter can be very
favorable but tends to overdoing things.
What will probably not be favorable
will be Venus conjuncting both Saturn and Pluto in the week of February 18th.
Dates are a minimum +- 7 tds
unless otherwise noted. On longer timed aspects a time frame will be included.
Jan 18 may still result in a
turn. See the Bradley Indicator at the end of this section.
If the current volatility
continues watch for a cycle turn near February
11, 2019.
This is the 33 week cycle.
The following daily chart of the
SP500 is what we have been showing under the 24 Harmonic chart. This is the
basis of what we have been forecasting on.
Following is the 24 Harmonic
chart we have shown for many months.
The Jan 2 date was a big range
day. It is trying to move through the Jupiter Price line (blue)
The next hits are Feb 20, 2019 and April 10, 2019.
The 4 Year cycle
The above chart shows the 4 year
(red). The last 4 year cycle trough was Feb 2016. The next 4 year cycle should
be Dec 2019 +- 10 months but we need more analysis to confirm. See the chart.
From the last few posts:
“This coming year could see an
increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”
See the link under “Earthquakes”.
This is an application from the USGS. There was a significant earthquake in
Alaska 4 weeks ago. Geophysical activity has been picking up.
There has been a number of
volcano’s erupting as well. Japan, Hawaii, Philippines, others.
On a longer term basis the
following monthly chart of the DJIA
shows the 15 year cycle (red
vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle
(blue lines). The 15 year is due now
or took place April – June 2018. The 45
year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer-term cycle
possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.
Although we do not have enough data the 45 year cycle pointing to Sept 2022
this could also be the 90 year cycle. We do not have enough data to make the 90
year call. For a 90 year cycle I’m
looking at 1842 – 1932 and then 2022.
The following daily chart of
the SP500 shows 2 Envelope channels.
Red is the centered
20 week envelope channel.
Blue is the centered 40 week envelope channel. The dark blue squares are the
Sun / Neptune square which is often a short term change in trend.
We have had this noted it was
due for a sell. Also note the dark blue squares.
They are the dates of the Mars square Uranus transit.
We are entering the difficult time mentioned
over the last few months.
The red averages are based on the 20 week so
they are shifted 10 weeks or a ½ cycle.
I brought up Iran on the last
couple of posts. I’ll come back to those charts on any potential signs of
conflict. It is getting close. Watch the news for problems with Iran.
Other
Other cycles and Astrological
events are the 20 year cycle and heliocentric Jupiter in Sagittarius.
The vertical black lines are
the 20 year cycle. Note the lows. It is due again near March 2022 but it needs
a wide orb.
The blue x’s show when
heliocentric Jupiter is in Sagittarius. This, most often, has the market moving
up. The next chart shows both these items. The aspect Heliocentric Jupiter in
Sagittarius came from MMA. And timing solutions.
2019 Eclipses
Date Eclipse Saros Cycle Sign
Jan 6, 2019 Solar
Partial 122 15Cp25
Jan 21, 2019 Total
Lunar 134 00Le51
July 2, 2019 Solar
Total 127 10Cn37
July 16, 2019 Partial
Lunar 139 24Cp4
Dec 26, 2019 Solar
Annular 132 4Cp6
The Bradley Indicator
This stock index forecasting tool was designed by astrologer
Donald Bradley and published in 1947 in a booklet titled "Stock Market
Prediction".
On the cover this tool is called the Planetary Barometer and
inside the booklet it is called a Siderograph. Now it is simply called
"the Bradley". The
Bradley is meant to forecast major and minor turning-points
(where a trend will reverse) in either the Dow Jones Industrial Average or
SP500 indexes. Bradley's work was obviously on the DJIA.
It does not forecast or anticipate whether that
turning-point will be a high or a low. It has no polarity. The Bradley may turn
up while the DJIA turns down. The amplitude of the Bradley swing is also not
important. It only finds periods where trend changes occur.
It should be understood Astrologers in decades gone by who
had no computers, spreadsheets, or databases to analyze data typically worked
with much smaller data sets than we do today. This maybe why the Bradley worked
so well when it first came out in 1947 but now is somewhat unreliable. Now, it
goes through periods where it works fairly well but then can stop operating for
months at a time. Originally it was for geocentric astrology (Earth centered)
but there are now heliocentric models (Sun centered) and others.
In Bradley's own words:
"At no time must the reader gain the impression that a
siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually
do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective
attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock
averages"
So if the Bradley only identifies trend changes, what are
trend changes?
- a rising market changes to a falling market
- a rising market changes to sideways
- a sideways market starts going up
- a sideways market starts going down
- a market going down changes to a rising market
- a falling market starts going sideways
The red line is the Bradley Indicator.
Gold
Gold is 109 td (trading days) or 22 weeks away from the Primary cycle
bottom on Aug 16, 2018.
This could be near the end of the 3nd
6 week cycle. The Primary cycle is
approx. 18 weeks long and we are at the 22nd week.
On occasion the Primary cycle can extend away
from it’s more normal 18 week length.
I’m looking for a crest in Gold in January 2019
We may have just had it.
Gold has been forming a Cup and Handle pattern
as follows.
This would be a more definitive formation if it
was rising when entering the pattern.
Gold may be the best performing commodity in
the first half of 2019. Look for a pull back before precious metals moves
higher.
I’m expecting a pull back and then up.
The following chart shows two
daily envelope channels. We may see a pullback near Jan 8. The vertical red
lines are a 20 day cycle.
The following chart shows a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle (blue
vertical lines). The last being Dec 3,
2018. The next is Jan 28,t 2019. Note that price is moving up in
the Mars price line (red).
The Moon takes 27 days to orbit the Earth and the Sun
takes 27 days to revolve once at the
Sun’s equator.
The red lines headed up are the Mars price lines. Gold had been moving up
and have found both resistance and support at the Mars price line. The darker
red Mars lines are the main aspect. Moving below the red Mars price line was bearish
now we need to move above the red Mars price line as a positive sign for a move
up in Gold. Gold may follow the red, Mars price line up. Watch closely.
Looking at this whole chart it
is based on a 24 harmonic. If you count each line from one darker red line to
the next you will find there are 15 of them. 15 * 24 degrees = 360 degrees.
The following chart shows when
Mars enters a new sign.(red squares). It often affects Gold. Mars is in Aries and changes signs into
Taurus on Feb 14, 2019.
This is just about 18 weeks so
we may see a Primary cycle trough close to this date. Watch for geophysical
activity around this timeframe.
Crude
Oil is recovering from a strong
move down. The low on Dec 24 may be the Primary cycle low and may turn out to
be a larger cycle low. This dip is probably the 17 month cycle trough.
Price broke through the 45 day sma and the 15 day is
curling up.
On Jan 13 we had Jupiter square
Neptune. Both are co-rulers of Pisces which rules crude amongst other things.
As mentioned, this square will be seen off and on during 2019. Among other
things this square can indicate a period where things get overdone including
the price of crude.
This puts us entering week 5th.
On the next chart note how price
often follows the Sun price line up (green line) and often stops and reverses
at the Sun price line or the Pluto price line (blue). We often get big range days. The red vertical lines are the 40 cd (calendar
day) lines. Crude price often bounce on a Pluto price line (blue) as well.
Watch the green Sun price line
and see if crude follows that price line up.
And finally, a weekly chart of
crude showing a 17 / 34 month cycle. Red vertical lines. The 17 month cycle
chart is shown below. Note the Fibonacci retracement at 23.6% or 59.41.