Silver Follow Up Jan 29, 2014

To follow up on Silver comments I'm watching the Jupiter price line per the following chart.

The blue line that Silver has been following is the Heliocentric Jupiter price line. Silver needs to either break out above the price line or down we go.

Financial Astrology Jan 28, 2014

From the last post.

"If Silver does not start up then watch for possible sharp declines in Gold/Silver Jan 24, or Jan 30-31(emphasis here), or Feb 5-7 or Feb 13-14."

Change:

Silver could have a sharp move, up or down, based on past history. I'm looking at Jan 30-31 as the days with the best chance of a big move. 

Obviously this would affect Gold as well.

Financial Astrology Jan 26, 2014

SP500

This blog changed on Jan 1, 2014 We will no longer provide turn dates for the SP500 as these are being sold for the first half of 2014 see -> 

http://www.trading-daze.blogspot.ca/2013/12/2014-offer-key-dates-1st-half-of-2014.html

For those that signed up for the first 1/2 of 2014 forecast, we hit the first forecast date which was Jan 20 +- 1 week. If they all turn out this good I'll be a happy and wealthier man.

Gold

Gold is now in the 4th week of the Primary cycle which bottomed on Dec 31.

Note the seasonal comments from last weeks post and remember these are averages that can be overridden in any specific year with a strong cycle, Nevertheless, that has been the history.

We are getting a little late for a trading cycle trough (2-4 weeks) and are advancing into the time frame for a major cycle (5-7 week) crest. The current cycle is strong which may be quite right translated.

From the last post.

"If it does appear, I'm looking at the days around January 22 as a possible short term pull back based on the Fibonacci expansion values from Oct 4, 2012 to June 28, 2013, the latter being the probable 4.25 year low. January 22nd is 78.6% in time for that move. See the following chart. There are also two Astro harmonics with Sun-Mars and Sun-Jupiter pointing to a turn near Jan 23rd."

We got the pullback on Jan 22 and reverse with two Astro harmonics with Sun-Mars and Sun-Jupiter on Jan 23.

Whether the Gold move up continues into mid/late February depends on Golds' price action later in January. The key date I'm looking at is Jan 31 where Venus turns stationary direct and a longer term aspect Jupiter opposition Pluto.

Silver must start moving to confirm a general move up in the precious metals. From Dec 31, 2013 to Jan 24, 2014 Gold is up 5.1% while Silver was only up 1.0%. If Silver starts moving Gold should continue into Feb. If Silver does not move watch those dates closely. Silver usually leads the parade.

If Silver does not start up then watch for possible sharp declines in Gold/Silver Jan 24, or Jan 30-31(emphasis here), or Feb 5-7 or Feb 13-14.

To follow up on the miners, they did very well as anticipated.

Crude

We are in the 3rd or 10th week of the Primary cycle for crude. Crude tested the late Nov 2013 lows and advancing from there. I'm looking for an advance into late Jan / early Feb ideally following the Sun price line (green) up at least to the Dec high in crude. Again Jan 31 could be a critical date.

US$

I have concerns about the US$ but looking for the March / April timeframe to assess where we are. The US dollar could come under extreme pressure which would affect many markets.

Financial Astrology - January 19, 2014

SP500

This blog changed on Jan 1, 2014 We will no longer provide turn dates for the SP500 as these are being sold for the first half of 2014 see -> 

http://www.trading-daze.blogspot.ca/2013/12/2014-offer-key-dates-1st-half-of-2014.html

This week has the potential to be a big mover for the SP500 and I don't mean up.

Gold

Gold is now in the 3rd week of the Primary cycle which bottomed on Dec 31.

Seasonal Gold prices tend to peak in January, however, this appears to be a strong move up at this time.

Following is a Gold futures chart from http://www.seasonalcharts.com

We are in the time period to watch for the trading cycle trough (2-4 weeks) after a Primary trough. In strongly trending markets this does not tend to appear.  

If it does appear, I'm looking at the days around January 22 as a possible short term pull back based on the Fibonacci expansion values from Oct 4, 2012 to June 28, 2013, the latter being the probable 4.25 year low. January 22nd is 78.6% in time for that move. See the following chart. There are also two Astro harmonics with Sun-Mars and Sun-Jupiter pointing to a turn near Jan 23rd.

Keep in mind this currently looks like a counter trend rally in a bear market. What makes this positive on a longer time frame is the 4.25 year low in late June 2013 and the recent successful retest on Dec 31, 2013. I am looking for a move up into late-Jan /  Feb where we will be 6 weeks along (i.e. due for the first 6 week Major cycle) in the current Primary cycle and entering the period for seasonal weakness in Gold. I'm looking for a right translated 6 week cycle so the s/t high should be in front of us.

Whether the Gold move up continues into mid/late February depends on Golds' price action later in January. The rest of the precious metal sectors appear to be starting a move up as well. Silver for example just had the 15dma cross over the 45 dma. The latter is often found near cycle moves.

There are many ETF's for Gold and Gold miners, some double and triple derivatives. For Gold bullion I use CEF.A.TO on the TSX. The bullion is kept in a Canadian bank on an unencumbered, allocated and segregated basis. They have also been around since the early 1960's. This is actually and ETF for physical Gold and Silver. I bring this up because of all the shenanigans in Gold. From rumors of outright manipulation in prices to empty Gold vaults to tungsten filled bars to non delivery of German Gold after they requested their Gold be returned. The points being, store your Gold in a safe place and expect short term manipulation. On the positive side many of the countries now emerging with some wealth are populated with people who have never trusted fiat currencies and are far more comfortable holding Gold than the countries paper money. China is a big buyer and are encouraging their people to buy Gold as well. India has always been a big buyer.

I'm fully invested in Gold meaning the resting buy orders I had were all hit.

The miners are also moving. They had been so oversold for so long there are some great values there although I'm sticking to the big producers for now.

Crude

We are in the 2nd or 9th week of the Primary cycle for crude. Crude tested the late Nov 2013 lows and is advancing from there. I'm looking for an advance into late Jan / early Feb ideally following the Sun price line (green) up into early Feb where it meets the Pluto price line (black). Note it went through here rather quickly on Jan 2nd and 3rd. No holdings at the moment. Watching price action. The current move could be a s/t bounce.

Other Jan 31 geocentric Jupiter opposition Pluto. Jupiter is the co-ruler of crude.

Natural Gas
I'm looking for NatGas to move up later in the month. Watching price action at this time. It has the potential to move up quickly.

US$

I have concerns about the US$ but looking for the March / April time frame to assess where we are. The US dollar could come under extreme pressure which would affect many markets.

Financial Astrology - Jan 12, 2014

SP500

This blog changed on Jan 1, 2014 We will no longer provide turn dates for the SP500 as these are being sold for the first half of 2014 see -> 

http://www.trading-daze.blogspot.ca/2013/12/2014-offer-key-dates-1st-half-of-2014.html

Gold

Gold looks like it has turned with a test of the June 28, 2013 bottom. Dec 31, 2013 looks like a Primary cycle (nominal 18 week) bottom very close to Sun conjunct Pluto on Jan 1, 2014, the same day of the Super Moon which was on the heliocentric south node of Jupiter (see previous posts). We are therefore entering the second week of a new Primary cycle. Watch this closely it may move quickly. On the following daily chart Gold has just closed higher than the 45 dma. Remember the June 28, 2013 date was and still is the 4.25 year cycle trough. 

This was also at the 25 week cycle low. Red vertical lines on the following weekly chart.

If you have missed buying we often get a pullback in the 2-4 week time frame after a Primary cycle low. Watch for this pullback and use it as a buying oppourtunity assuming nothing unusual happens in the mean time.

Crude

The question for Crude, are we in the 22nd week of a Primary cycle that started on Aug 8 or in the 8th week of a later Primary which started on Nov 27. Either way the price action over the last 2 weeks is a little bizarre.

When not sure it is best to watch. My gut feeling is Jan 9 was the trough for the older 22 week Primary. If this is the case Crude should start up shortly. I will await price action to determine the trading strategy. Obviously if this is a Primary low we will want to buy. If this is the start of a new Primary we could use the 2-4 week pullback to get in, as mentioned above for Gold.

The following daily chart shows crude did make it down to the next Sun price line and may get support here. Watch this area early in the week to see if this is a trough for the older Primary cycle.

US$

The US$ is due for a 9 month trough in the March 2014 timeframe. See the following weekly chart of the US$. The dollar looks week here.

Update Jan 10, 2014

From the Dec 15, 2013 post.

"Other issues are Neptune in Pisces. Previous passages have equated to a rise in socialism,

and epidemics. Recently there have been aspects between Hades and Neptune. This could be a precursor to water or food pollution. This could be pollution as seen at Fukushima or water table pollution from fracking technology. Water will be a key issue in the near future. We are also in a period of increased geophysical stress and violent weather."

Note the recent water pollution incident. There will be more to come.

http://rt.com/usa/chemical-water-spill-virginia-424/

Coronal Mass Ejection - Jan 7, 2014

Seems to be heading towards earth.

You can monitor it's progress here - >   http://www.spaceweather.com/

Possible M Class Flare

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Financial Astrology - January 5, 2014

SP500

This blog changed on Jan 1, 2014 We will no longer provide turn dates for the SP500 as these are being sold for the first half of 2014 see -> 

http://www.trading-daze.blogspot.ca/2013/12/2014-offer-key-dates-1st-half-of-2014.html

Gold

From the last post "The Sun and Pluto are often active by transit during Gold turns are repeated here."

Dec 30 Mars square Pluto

Dec 31 Mercury conjunct Pluto sextile Mars

Jan1    Sun conjunct Pluto

etc.

The low appears to have been put in on Dec 31. This retested but did not break the June 28,2013 low in Gold. We need more price action to confirm this low. If this is a primary cycle low then the previous cycle was very left translated and short at 12 weeks (nominal 18 week). I had mentioned I was holding buy stops or resting buy orders last week. Some, but not all, of these orders have been filled. On the SP500 I'm still short but no longer nervous. I lied. I'm always nervous. Also still long crude.

This would mean Gold and the main market indexes turned at the same time or appear to be doing so.

As discussed in the last few posts. The second half of December 2013 had many powerful Astrological aspects. There were certainly some social unrest and violence but I had feared worse.

There should be strong resistance in Gold around the $1240-$1250 range. This is also where the 45 dma is currently located. I'm watching for the 15 dma to cross the 45 dma.

From an Astro perspective Mars waxing square to Jupiter on Jan 8th should be positive for Gold here and for the next few weeks.

A point worth noting. Most astrological aspects do not consistently identify highs or lows. The aspects which are useful are the one's that consistently identify a change in trend, either up or down. It is the job of the Financial Astrologer to determine if a given aspect is going to result in a move up or down. In this case the Mars waxing square to Jupiter has a history of swing moves and in this case being so close to the suspected low I'm looking for a strong move up. There may be bumps in the road but generally up for approx. 2 weeks. The one fly in the ointment is Jupiter is retrograde and passing back over the invariable plane from approx. Jan 8 to Jan 24th. This could result in some unexpected behavior. Jupiter is not always good times and good things. Sometimes it represents that which is overdone.

Another important day for Gold maybe around Jan 31 when Venus turns stationary direct while it is on the invariable plane. Also that day Jupiter opposes Pluto (remember comments about Pluto and Gold.

Crude

In follow up to the last post crude took a dip right on the crossing of the Sun price line (green) and the Pluto price line (dark blue) as suspected. Watch for a rebound early in the week. It may get down to the next green (Sun price line) but I doubt it.

In a previous post I had mentioned the 16/24 week cycle and was looking for a high in early to mid January. I wasn't expecting this strong a move down.

I'm now looking for a strong bounce in crude early in the coming week. The two aspects to Jupiter mentioned above may help. Jupiter is a co-ruler of crude with Neptune.

The high I was expecting (16/24 week), in the first half of January, I'm now looking for in mid to late January.