This blog changed on Jan 1, 2014 We will no longer provide
turn dates for the SP500 as these are being sold for the first half of 2014 see
->
For those that signed up for the first 1/2 of 2014 forecast,
we hit the first forecast date which was Jan 20 +- 1 week. If they all turn out
this good I'll be a happy and wealthier man.
Gold
Gold is now in the 4th week of the Primary cycle which
bottomed on Dec 31.
Note the seasonal comments from last weeks post and remember
these are averages that can be overridden in any specific year with a strong
cycle, Nevertheless, that has been the history.
We are getting a little late for a trading cycle trough (2-4
weeks) and are advancing into the time frame for a major cycle (5-7 week) crest.
The current cycle is strong which may be quite right translated.
From the last post.
"If it does
appear, I'm looking at the days around January 22 as a possible short term pull
back based on the Fibonacci expansion values from Oct 4, 2012 to June 28, 2013,
the latter being the probable 4.25 year low. January 22nd is 78.6% in time for
that move. See the following chart. There are also two Astro harmonics with
Sun-Mars and Sun-Jupiter pointing to a turn near Jan 23rd."
We got the pullback on Jan 22 and reverse with two Astro
harmonics with Sun-Mars and Sun-Jupiter on Jan 23.
Whether the Gold move up continues into mid/late February
depends on Golds' price action later in January. The key date I'm looking at is Jan 31 where Venus turns stationary
direct and a longer term aspect Jupiter opposition Pluto.
Silver must start moving to confirm a general move up in the
precious metals. From Dec 31, 2013 to Jan 24, 2014 Gold is up 5.1% while Silver
was only up 1.0%. If Silver starts moving Gold should continue into Feb. If
Silver does not move watch those dates closely. Silver usually leads the
parade.
If Silver does not start up then watch for possible sharp
declines in Gold/Silver Jan 24, or Jan 30-31(emphasis here), or Feb 5-7 or Feb
13-14.
To follow up on the miners, they did very well as anticipated.
Crude
We are in the 3rd or 10th week of the Primary cycle for
crude. Crude tested the late Nov 2013 lows and advancing from there. I'm
looking for an advance into late Jan / early Feb ideally following the Sun
price line (green) up at least to the Dec high in crude. Again Jan 31 could be
a critical date.
US$
I have concerns about the US $ but looking for the March /
April timeframe to assess where we are. The US dollar could come under extreme
pressure which would affect many markets.
Greetings and Highest Regards
ReplyDeleteMany Thanks for you generosity and interesting prognosis.
Please comment on USDollar outlook for 2106.
Thank You
Sincerely
Tony Teo