SP500
This blog changed on Jan 1, 2014 We will no longer provide
turn dates for the SP500 as these are being sold for the first half of 2014 see
->
This week has the potential to be a big mover for the SP500 and I don't mean up.
Gold
Gold is now in the 3rd week of the Primary cycle which
bottomed on Dec 31.
Seasonal Gold prices tend to peak in January, however, this
appears to be a strong move up at this time.
Following is a Gold futures chart from http://www.seasonalcharts.com
We are in the time period to watch for the trading cycle
trough (2-4 weeks) after a Primary trough. In strongly trending markets this
does not tend to appear.
If it does appear, I'm looking at the days around January 22
as a possible short term pull back based on the Fibonacci expansion values from
Oct 4, 2012 to June 28, 2013, the latter being the probable 4.25 year low.
January 22nd is 78.6% in time for that move. See the following chart. There are
also two Astro harmonics with Sun-Mars and Sun-Jupiter pointing to a turn near
Jan 23rd.
Keep in mind this currently looks like a counter trend rally
in a bear market. What makes this positive on a longer time frame is the 4.25
year low in late June 2013 and the recent successful retest on Dec 31, 2013. I
am looking for a move up into late-Jan / Feb where we will be 6 weeks along (i.e. due
for the first 6 week Major cycle) in the current Primary cycle and entering the
period for seasonal weakness in Gold. I'm looking for a right translated 6 week
cycle so the s/t high should be in front of us.
Whether the Gold move up continues into mid/late February
depends on Golds' price action later in January. The rest of the precious metal
sectors appear to be starting a move up as well. Silver for example just had
the 15dma cross over the 45 dma. The latter is often found near cycle moves.
There are many ETF's for Gold and Gold miners, some double
and triple derivatives. For Gold bullion I use CEF.A.TO on the TSX. The bullion
is kept in a Canadian bank on an unencumbered, allocated and segregated basis.
They have also been around since the early 1960's. This is actually and ETF for
physical Gold and Silver. I bring this up because of all the shenanigans in Gold. From rumors of outright manipulation in prices to empty Gold vaults to tungsten filled bars to non delivery of German Gold after they requested their Gold be returned. The points being, store your Gold in a safe place and expect short term manipulation. On the positive side many of the countries now emerging with some wealth are populated with people who have never trusted fiat currencies and are far more comfortable holding Gold than the countries paper money. China is a big buyer and are encouraging their people to buy Gold as well. India has always been a big buyer.
I'm fully invested in Gold meaning the resting buy orders I
had were all hit.
The miners are also moving. They had been so oversold for so
long there are some great values there although I'm sticking to the big producers for now.
Crude
We are in the 2nd or 9th week of the Primary cycle for
crude. Crude tested the late Nov 2013 lows and is advancing from there. I'm
looking for an advance into late Jan / early Feb ideally following the Sun
price line (green) up into early Feb where it meets the Pluto price line (black). Note
it went through here rather quickly on Jan 2nd and 3rd. No holdings at the
moment. Watching price action. The current move could be a s/t bounce.
Other Jan 31 geocentric Jupiter opposition Pluto. Jupiter is the co-ruler of crude.
Natural Gas
I'm looking for NatGas to move up later in the month. Watching price action at this time. It has the potential to move up quickly.
US$
I have concerns about the US $ but looking for the March /
April time frame to assess where we are. The US dollar could come under extreme
pressure which would affect many markets.
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