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SP500
The last Primary cycle trough started
on June 28, 2018 and may have completed it’s Primary cycle on Oct. 29, 2018. Please note we could
have a secondary pull back so the Primary cycle trough is not firm yet. Markets
should be volatile next week with the mid-term elections on Nov 6 and the FOMC
meeting on Nov 8th.
If that was the Primary cycle
low then we are in the first week of
a new Primary.
If the current Primary takes out
the Feb 9th low at 2532
we may be looking at a much larger drop. I’m bring this up as a possibility. I
think the low is in.
Price is below the 15 day sma
and the 45 day sma and the 15 day sma is below the 45 day sma. Both averages
are pointed down. We are in a period of volatile congestion.
The recent move down was timing
the 18-week Primary cycle and a 2 year cycle. The longer term cycles (2 year)
can distort the smaller term cycles (18 week).
September 21 seems to be the crest of the current Primary cycle.
The following dates may have
significant moves or start a move. When the Primary cycle trough is confirmed
the later dates will not apply.
Nov 6 North Node
enters Cancer
Uranus
squares the North Node and enters Aries (backwards, it’s retrograde)
Experience
of upsets when together with other people.
People
advocating for reforms
Difficulty
in unions od people.
Sun trine
Neptune
Often
marks a high then down
Weakness
and illness.
Uncertain
times, masses of water
Mid-term
elections in the USA
Nov 7 Jupiter
trine the North Node
Unexpected
good acquaintance, fortunate unions
Nov 8 Jupiter
enters Sagittarius
May
involve the start of inflationary periods.
FOMC
Nov 16 Venus Direct
Mercury
Retrograde
As usual dates are a minimum +-
3 tds. On longer timed aspects a time frame will be included.
Nov 6 are the USA mid-term
elections. We should be aware of actions by either political party which could
affect the markets.
The following daily chart of the
SP500 is what we have been showing under the 24 Harmonic chart. This is the
basis of what we have been forecasting on.
Following is the 24 Harmonic
chart we have shown for many months.
The next hits are Nov 13, 2018 and Jan. 2, 2019. The latter number is on the Uranus price line. Watch
closely.
Both could be big moves or big
range days.
The 9 month cycle
The above chart shows the 9
month or 39 week cycle (blue vertical lines). It was due and appears to have
formed in late October. The 20 week cycle was added as well (red vertical lines).
Any green lines are a combination of the 20 and 40 week cycles. The 20 week cycle was only 1 day away from
the sharp move down.
From the last few posts:
“This coming year could see an
increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”
See the link under
“Earthquakes”. This is an application from the USGS.
There has been a number of
volcano’s erupting as well. Japan and Hawaii.
On a longer term basis the
following monthly chart of the DJIA
shows the 15 year cycle (red
vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle
(blue lines). The 15 year is due now
or took place April – June 2018. The 45
year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer-term cycle
possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.
Regarding a note from a
reader the 45 year cycle is the ½ cycle to the 90 year cycle. It is the
vertical blue lines.
The following daily chart of
the SP500 shows 2 Envelope channels. Red is the centered
20 week envelope channel.
Blue is the centered 40 week envelope channel. The dark blue squares are the
Sun / Neptune square which is often a short term change in trend.
We have had this noted it was
due for a sell. Also note the dark blue
squares. They are the dates of the Mars square Uranus transit.
We are entering the difficult time mentioned
over the last few months.
The envelope channel charts are easy to
calculate. In the above case the blue lines are based on a 40 day average but
when they are plotted they are centered. For a 40 day it will be shifted by 20
days which is the ½ cycle.
The red averages are based on the 20 week so
they are shifted 10 weeks or a ½ cycle.
I brought up Iran on the last
post. I’ll come back to those charts on any potential signs of conflict. It is
getting close. Watch the news for problems with Iran.
Longer Term
Uranus and the North Node.
Following is a monthly chart of the DJIA.
The red vertical lines are a 94 month cycle.
The main Astros on this chart are the aspects between Uranus
and the North Node.
The small red circle is the conjunction.
The double arrow is the opposition.
The red square is the 90 degree square.
Note how the DJIA acted as these aspects are hit.
The next conjunction is in July 2022.
The next square is November 6, 2018. This is the
same day as some other Astros above and the day of the mid-term
election.
November 6 may be a
significant date.
4 Year
Other longer-term aspects
like the 4 year cycle are coming
due. The SP500 4 year cycle should be due in mid to late 2019.
The Primary cycle top on Sept 21, 2018 at 2490.91 may have
been the top for the 4 year cycle.
Other
Another very long term cycle,
the 90 year, is potentially around 2022 +- a lot. More time is needed to
confirm this cycle. The ½ cyc;e to the 90, the 45 year ties into the 90 and is
due in the same time frame.
Gold
Mercury moved out of Heliocentric Sagittarius
on Oct 20th. This often
results in sharp moves both up and down. In this case it is close to a short
term high before going down.
The Primary cycle in Gold has been difficult to
ascertain. There was a Primary cycle trough on Dec 12, 2017 but determining the
next Primary trough has been very difficult.
We may have seen a low on Aug 16th but it must be confirmed. This was 4 trading
days after the Lunar Eclipse on Aug 11.
We are now 52 td (trading days) from the
potential Primary cycle low on Aug 16th. The sharp move up may be
the beginning of the second 6 week cycle of the current Primary cycle. The
Primary Cycle, which is 18 weeks (approx.) is often composed of 3, 6-week
cycles.
On occasion the Primary cycle can extend away
from it’s more normal 18 week length.
I’m looking for astrological aspects which have
a history of changing the trend for Gold. Mars changing signs into Aquarius has
a history of moves in Gold. So does Pluto Direct and Venus Retrograde / Direct.
In addition Mercury into heliocentric Sagittarius has a history of moves in
precious metals. Mercury enters helio Sagittarius on Oct 9th. The
big move occurred on Oct 11.
Seasonally Gold is usually flat over the early
summer months with a history of moving up starting in August.
Price is now just above the 15 sma and above the
45 day sma. Gold price often pulls back 2 to 4 weeks after a new Primary cycle
commences and then continues with a move up. We are currently 11 weeks along.
The following chart shows two
daily envelope channels like the chart for the SP500 above. The blue squares
are the Sun square Neptune which often results in a short term change in trend.
We should be getting close to a buy.
The following chart shows a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle (blue
vertical lines). The last being Oct 24,
2018. The next is Nov 20th.The Moon takes 27 days to orbit the Earth and the Sun takes 27 days to revolve once at the Sun’s equator.
The red lines headed up are the Mars price lines. Gold had been moving
sideways and have found both resistance and support at the Mars price line. The
darker red Mars lines are the main aspect. Moving below the red Mars price line
was bearish now we need to move above the red Mars price line as a positive
sign for a move up in Gold which we got on Oct 11. Gold may follow the red,
Mars price line up. Watch closely.
The small blue x’s on the chart
show when heliocentric Mercury is in
Sagittarius. We often see changes in trend in Gold when Mercury exits
heliocentric Sagittarius.
Looking at this whole chart it
is based on a 24 harmonic. If you count each line from one darker red line to
the next you will find there are 15 of them. 15 * 24 degrees = 360 degrees.
The following chart shows when
Mars enters a new sign.(red squares). It often affects Gold.
Crude
Oil appears we have put in Primary low on June 18th. We are
entering the 19th week of the
Primary cycle. Crude pulled back from Oct 3. Crude may have difficulty moving
up from here.
Price is now lower than the June
18, 2018 low of the Primary cycle. This can be very telling for crude. Watch
this for a possible bear market starting in crude.
I’m looking to June 18 being the
trough of the Primary Cycle. This was also the date Neptune turned retrograde.
Neptune and Jupiter rule crude. August
19 had Jupiter trine Neptune, both co-rule crude. In addition, Mercury
changes to direct motion, another sign of change.
Looking at Oct 5th was the 16 and 24 week cycles conjunct.
This may have indicated a move down in crude.
Crude started up on June 18 when
Neptune turned retrograde.
On the next chart note how price
often follows the Sun price line up (green line) and often stops and reverses
at the Sun price line or the Pluto price line. We often get big range days. The red vertical lines are the 40 cd (calendar
day) lines.
Watch the green Sun price line
and see if crude follows that price line up.
If uranus square north node on the 6th then it is similar to the 24th of october with sun square north node, then why do you believe the low is in ? As WITH all the aspects including the elections does it have a new low potential this time?
ReplyDeleteOct 25 was the Sun opposing Uranus.
ReplyDeleteIf we go below the Feb 9 low there is potential for a big move low.
Nov 6 should be considered as a bottom
ReplyDeleteAt this time I consider Oct 29, 2018 the low in the SP500.
ReplyDeleteIf it went below the Feb lows of Feb 9th then we could be looking at a big move down.
How about gold?
ReplyDeleteIf Gold does not start up by Nov 12 I'll look to sell.
ReplyDeleteWhat do u think usd index?
ReplyDeleteShould we go long sir? Is it bottom here?
ReplyDeleteUnsure here. I was looking for a high around Nov 19 but this is now unsure. I'll review in the weekly update.
ReplyDelete