Worldwide we had expected an increase in earthquake
activity and a number of large storms. You can typically expect such
activity around the days of a perigee Full Moon (Super Moon -- Richard Nolle)
July 12th. We got both with a major typhoon in Japan and earthquakes in Mexico and off the coast of Japan. You can monitor earthquake activity here.
I'm expecting more geophysical events and violent weather
around July 20-23 and then July 28-31 both +- a few days.
SP500
We have been expecting a pullback in the markets. So far it
has been very small. We were looking for a trough in the Primary cycle (nominal
18 week) with a range of 15-23 weeks. Currently we are 23 weeks along the Primary cycle. Very late and very unusual to have a new high so late in the cycle.
A minimal expectation would be for a pullback into the $1925 area. This would be 23.6% of the move up from Feb
5, 2014 to July 3, 2014. (23.6 % = 61.8% * 38.2 % all Fibonacci ratios).
Even a move to the 45 sma, currently at $1931
would indicate a possible Primary cycle trough. Also due at this time was a 9
week cycle and a longer term 55 week cycle. For the latter cycle we were
looking for a crest. It may have started but too early too tell. Earnings
season should tell the story. The Astrological events coming up over the next
2-3 weeks look negative for the markets. Violence should continue in the
hot-spots of the world.
There are a number of Planets changing signs with can often
result in changes in attitude of people.
July 13 Mercury
enters Cancer. This is the second time in about a month for Mercury to
enter Cancer due to retrograde motion. Mercury is short term thinking and is
leaving the more light hearted sign of Gemini to the more serious and protective sign of
Cancer.
July 16 Jupiter
enters Leo. An approx. 12 year event. Jupiter is the co-ruler of crude. This transit has a lot of history
with crude in the mid-East, wars about control of crude and various agreements
regarding the same subject. Subscribers
were given a number of dates two weeks ago regarding potential critical time
periods in July and August when crude and the mid-east should be in the news.
See notes on Crude, below.
July 18 Venus enters
Cancer
July 22 Sun enters
Leo
See last weeks blog post for other dates.
The whole month looks a little shaky. Astrological events
that should affect the market seem to be July 20- July 24th.
A chart I've shown a number of times is the Pluto (blue) and
North Node (red) price lines. Pluto was resistance, then support. The index
then jumped to the North Node price line quickly, broke through and has since fallen
back and seems to be getting support at the North Node price line. Watch the
area around $1956 to see if price
can break through on the downside.
It's interesting to note a very reliable market cycle 22/44
weeks did not appear to work. The indices would have to start down almost
immediately if this cycle is going to manifest on-time.
We had added the chart of the Russell 2000 (RUT) a couple of
weeks ago as it is felt an index of 2000 stocks is less open to manipulation
than the major U.S. index's (SP500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA).
The Russell 2000 appears to have put in a Primary cycle low
on May 15th which means it is
entering the 8th week of the Primary
cycle. It is thus due for a Major
cycle trough which seems to be forming and pullback potentially to the 1138-1151 area. This is at the 38.2%
and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Following is a repeat of the Primary cycle and it's cycle
components.
Primary cycles
have an average length of 18 weeks.
Primary cycles most often break down into 3 Major cycles of approx. 6 weeks each.
(Note: some behave differently).
Each Major cycle often breaks down into 2 or 3 week Trading cycles. The Trading cycle often gives the
trader a second chance of buying the Primary cycle low if the trader missed the
actual low.
Gold
We were waiting for a pullback in Gold and got a small one.
I added more positions on July 10th in the $1333 area although I still feel we
could get another pullback but didn't want Gold to run away from me. I would
buy here or buy on any pullbacks.
Again the subscribers
have the forecast dates. All should be looked at as +- a couple of TD's,
trading days. These dates will have everything to do with Jupiter and the Sun
entering Leo, Mars entering Scorpio and the potentially volatile period from
July 20 - 25.
Gold is currently in the 6th week of the Primary cycle. It may have just put in a very weak
trough and entering the second Major cycle of the Primary cycle. That would be bullish It's still
possible we are in the first Major cycle of the Primary so be careful and watch
for a possible move lower early next week. Any move below $1280 and I will be
out. Subscribers have more detail.
Silver is in the 7th
week of it's Primary cycle. Like Gold I was looking for a more substantial
pullback which we did not get. Nevertheless I bought. We could still get a
pullback. I'm looking for Silver to take out previous highs, first, on Feb 24,
2014 then Oct 30, 2013. Like Gold I'll buy any declines from here. Any move
below the May 30 low and I will be out. Remember the only metals that has been
manipulated more than Gold is Silver.
Two specific dates for Silver were given to subscribers this
week.
One of the precious metals ETF's I buy is CEF.A on the TSX.
I'm in Canada
you see. It is also in the US ,
ticker CEF. It's called the Central Canada Fund, has been around since the
1960's and holds the metal bars, Gold and Silver. The bars are in Canadian
banks, segregated and shockingly audited every year. The concept of auditing
Gold bars seems foreign to the FED. More importantly it's run by honorable men.
Stand up Mr. Ian McAvity.
Crude
Seasonally this is a weak period for crude, however, with
the disruption of crude production in Iraq ,
Libya etc. price had shot up and now moved down, at least in the US . (WTIC).
Seasonally week, yes, but Jupiter is moving into degrees in
the Zodiac which have been very important for the price of crude and decisions
on the mid-East.
Will borders be changed? Will Israel be receiving more oil from
the Kurds? Will the US , Britain or France stick their respective noses
into this situation. I'll wait and see. There is big trouble in the making.
Watch closely.
On another note, Jupiter is the "King's planet".
This may signal changes in the head's of state or other organization in any of
the mid-Eastern countries. Any country with a stake in crude production in the
mid-East. I would add Turkey
to the mix. I'm watching Saudi
Arabia as well.
What I'm saying here is many people are watching Gold and
other PM's. Watch crude as well. Subscribers,
use the dates I supplied two weeks ago.
We got a larger pullback than I expected in WTIC (West Texas
Intermediate Crude). Realizing the US
is becoming a major producer, nevertheless, serious problems with crude
production in the mid-East will affect crude prices in the US .
I should add here I have worked for an Oil company and a Mining company.
