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- We do not use negative option billing nor do we sell email addresses
SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise we are
entering the 19th week of the
Primary 1
cycle which started on Feb. 2nd 2015. This cycle is
aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15 to 21 weeks.
Being the 19th week we should be looking
for the crest in the Primary / nominal 18 week cycle. I'm looking at May 20th to be that crest and we
should therefore be headed down into the nominal 18 week cycle trough. At this point, following are the highs in the US indexes.
DJIA May 19, 2015
DJTI Nov 28, 2014
SP500 May 20, 2015
NYSE May 21, 2015
RUT Apr 15, 2015
On the above chart price of the
SP500, the 15 day sma is almost on the 45 day sma and
price is below both. Ideally we
would like to see the 15 day sma below the 45 sma and price below both. We are
getting close. I'm looking at 2080, 2066
or 2050 as potential targets for this Primary cycle trough for the SP500.
From last weeks market letter
"That said we also mentioned a few weeks ago an
adjusted Bradley indicator (Bradley-Shramenko), the brown wavy line on the
chart. It turned up on March 26 and the markets started to move lower. As we
have said the indicator does not indicate polarity. So the indicator moving up
when the market index is moving down is quite normal. The next turn is on
Monday June 8th. IF the adjusted Bradley indicator is
working this would indicate a turn up in the markets as the indicator moves
down. I've been looking for a move down in the markets so Monday must be
watched closely.
Also note the indicator has a shallow move on June 15th which could indicate a turn
as well."
Back to this week
So we got the turn up on June 9th, a Doji . We are currently
sitting 1 day before the next Bradley turn indicator and we turned down as
expected. The question now is how deep we go for a nominal 18 week and 168 td
cycle troughs.
The nominal 18 week cycle low
should be between Now - 07/06/2015 if
it is a normal nominal 18 week cycle as the range is 15 to 21 weeks (see red
line at bottom right hand corner). There are other indications for a move down reserved for subsribers.
Video
The other current cycle we've been
following is the 168 td (trading
day) cycle. Like last week the chart shows two possibilities shown as a blue vertical line (May 26th) and a
black vertical line, coming up (June 18th).
I'm looking at the blue line on May 21st as being the
crest of the 168 td cycle and another indication we should be moving down.
I'm looking for continued strife
and discord. This could include social unrest, police shootings, accidents.
Water and crude have been in the news and should continue with the emphasis on Neptune in it's own sign, Pisces and Mercury, also in
it's own sign of Gemini, a mutable air sign. Mercury joins both the Sun and
Mars in Gemini and the latter two will be conjunct on June 14 a signature that will emphasize hostile activity and with a
history of sharp moves in the market given a broad range. This is almost on the New Moon on June 16th
which, at 25 degrees, 7 minutes in Gemini is within approx 3 degrees of the
potentially troublesome fixed stars, Polaris and Betelgeuse.
This weekend also has Saturn
Retrograde moving backward into Scorpio on June
14th. Intense Scorpio does not need Saturn. This is happening while Saturn
is almost semi-square Pluto, the two thugs of the Zodiac. This is exact on June 20th and should emphasize
the Saturn / Pluto energies. These two powerful bad guys are in mutual
reception, that is Saturn is in Scorpio which Pluto rules and Pluto is in
Capricorn which Saturn rules. This gives Pluto more support and staying power
in it's role to change banking and money in general. Saturn in Scorpio creates
tension and can effect the emotions in a negative way (depression?) and a
detrimental effect on health. We could see a pandemic or other disease come to
the fore while Saturn is in Scorpio (MERS?). Scorpio rules others peoples money
so companies such as banking, stock markets, insurance, accounting and
financial series may be made accountable when Saturn is in Scorpio, in this
case with support from Pluto. This may take a number of weeks to develop, but
there may be an initial shock. Watch bonds and watch out.
At any rate, Neptune
is in a strong position in Pisces, the sign that it rules. As mentioned last
week this should emphasize events dealing with water, crude and Natural Gas.
Things that Neptune rules.
There are other transits pointing
to a potential stronger move down, reserved for subscribers.
In summary I'm expecting
the major US
market indices to move down. This may have started on May 20th for the SP500.
We may have seen the bounce I was expecting with Neptune
turning Retrograde and now we move down into the nominal 18 week and 168 td
cycle troughs. This is my preferred outlook, particularly with the Saturn / Pluto aspects noted above. The FED may step in and juice the
market higher but the Astros are pointing down.
One other option is we
bounce and go up into the June 22
area where we have Jupiter trine Uranus.
This aspect has a history of occurring near tops. This is not always the case.
For example Jupiter trine Uranus
occurred near the bottom of the October
1987 crash.
We are looking for longer term
cycles, 4 and 6 year, to end this year or 1st quarter 2016. The 4 year should
end at a Primary cycle low which may be distorted. The 6 year may end there as
well. The troughs for the 4 and 6 year cycles will be much deeper. There are
other cycles coming due in the first half of 2015 which are reserved for
subscribers.
Gold
Gold appears to have put in a put in a Primary cycle 1
trough on March 17th. This was 1 td after the
Uranus / Pluto square. This puts us entering the 13th week of the nominal 18 week during this coming week.
Gold put in a high on Monday May 18th, the same day as
Mercury turning retrograde and then headed down and it is still headed down. Gold could move lower here and may have seen the top for this nominal 18
week cycle. May 18th may have been
the crest of the nominal 18 week cycle. This was also 2 td's from the time Fib of 2.618 noted on previous posts. This was based on the move down in Gold
from October 2012 to June 2013.
We are monitoring another cycle for Gold which will hit in
the summer but reserved for subscribers. That cycle and others with the placement of Jupiter in the summer
may be pointing to a strong reversal in Gold. That is we move down into the
July / August period for a low in Gold from which a large rally commences. More
work needed here. I'm currently short the Gold miners.
As noted last week, Mercury retrograde has a strong history
of changes in trend for Gold close to the retrograde date. In this case it was
to the day. The direct date also has a history of changes in Gold price. That's
June 11th this week. On the following chart the red arrow pointing left is the
retrograde date, the blue arrow pointing right is the direct date, the red dot
is the geocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction and the blue dot is the
heliocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction. The I and S denote the Inferior and Superior
conjunctions.
If we have just seen the crest, Gold should be moving down
from here for a few weeks, potentially a couple of months. With the
Astrological aspects Gold may be very volatile, like the main market indices.
From Last Week
"Heliocentric
Mercury leaves Sagittarius and moves into Capricorn on June 7th. This may have
a short term reversal effect for Gold."
Gold reversed up on June 8th.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus
(green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold broke through the Jupiter price
line early in the week and has followed it sideways.
Crude
This coming week of June
15 we should be entering the 13th
week of a Primary cycle which started Mar
18, 2015.
I'm watching the dates around any Neptune aspects and the Neptune stationary retrograde date on June 12th. Like stocks and Gold, crude
could be very volatile for the next few weeks. For example May 29th had Mercury
waxing square to Neptune . There was almost a
$3 swing up on Friday.
Other Astrological dates are reserved for subscribers.
Crude appears to have put in a "W" bottom. Since the
shooting star doji on May 6th Crude has been in sideways consolidation. Crude,
like other commodities is being affected by the US $ moves and news out of the mid-East.
As seen on the following chart the Neptune price line (green)
gave resistance on June 10th and 11th then fell below on the date of Neptune turning retrograde.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
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