Sunday, December 13, 2009

Update

Currently the SP500 continues a sideways pattern. Wednesday Dec 9, 2009 has the potential to be a 6 week, Major cycle low, however, it was not very deep and just barely broke the 25 dma. Nevertheless it was in the timeframe and the current price structure points to a possible bounce, possibly into year end for a Santa Claus rally.

The period around Dec 18/21 needs to be watched carefully, for it has a number of powerful Astros, which could affect not only stocks but commodities as well, particularly Oil and Gas.

Looking past this period and into mid January 2010 there is a configuration that has been quite repeatable. It is a 3 cycle pass of heliocentric Mercury. See the following chart. The green x’s show when heliocentric Mercury transits through Virgo. Note the middle pass. The SP500 most often rises into this period then drops quickly. Again it is only in the middle pass of Mercury in Virgo.



In addition on Jan 15, 2010 there is a Solar eclipse and Mercury direct station. Both are strong signatures for sharp moves. This in conjunction with the 3 pass heliocentric Mercury point to a period for a rising market and then a sharp decline. Bear in mind these signatures typically point to shorter term moves. The following chart shows recent events for the Mercury direct station (blue circle) and solar eclipse (sold red circle).


Tuesday, December 8, 2009

SP500 Oil Gold Update

SP500
One of the cycles I follow is the 18 week or primary cycle. For stocks it bottomed the week of Nov 2nd. We are therefore in the 5th week and I’m looking for a nominal 6 week cycle bottom. This bottom would not be crash, but a pull back to the 25 dma.

Potential dates for this bottom are:

Dec 10 – 14
Sun trines Mars On Dec 10 and the Sun squares Uranus On Dec 14. The Sun Mars trine always happens approx. 10 days before the Mars retrograde and the Sun Uranus square always occurs approx. 13 days after the Uranus direct station, thus, this period is the overlap where the Sun is hit by both forces. There are a number of other reasons for this period to represent a CIT, helio Mercury and Venus changing signs and both aspecting helio Jupiter the next day.

Dec 18 – 20
Although I originally had this period as a high, if we don’t get a trough in the Dec 10 –14 period then I’ll be looking at this period for a trough for the nominal 6 week cycle low. Dec 20 has Mars retrograde and Dec 21 the last Jupiter Neptune conjunction. If the Dec 10 –14 period is a trough then this period could be a sharp reversal higher.



Mars retrograde also has a history of fast turns in Gold as well.

Gold
The primary cycle in Gold bottomed Oct 28, 2009 and we are in the 6th week and due for the Major cycle trough. It appears this has begun. Look to the 2 dates above for potential time frames for a trough. Stocks, Gold and Oil will be governed by movement in the US$. It appears to have put in a longer term bottom but needs a couple more days above the 50 dma to confirm.










Oil

Oil is in the 21st week of the nominal 18 week primary cycle. In fact, for Oil this can range from 15-23 weeks and therefore it is due. Oil, like Gold, is headed down due to the rising US$. This should be the primary cycle and may be a little deeper than previous troughs. Approx. $70.50 would be a 50% retrace,emt of the move up from July '09. It could be deeper, but it is unfolding now. Again, look at the dates listed above for potential troughs and turn up.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

SP500 Update Nov 20th

Monday is a very important day for the markets. As can be seen on the following chart the SP500 is back to a support line starting in March then July.

This is also either the 3rd week of a new Primary cycle or the 20th week in an older one. This is very important since if we are in the 3rd week of a new primary we can expect higher highs, that is higher than the late November highs. If we are in the 20th week of an older Primary we can expect the early November lows to be broken.

Please note the markets have made lows in early Sept / Oct / Nov, so an early Dec low is quite possible. If we are looking for that low, maybe the narkets go up next week setting up that low.

Monday has some critical Astros. The Venus Jupiter sqaure is almost exact to the Marcr/Neptune midpoint. This midpoint has a history of broad range days and quick reversals. Monday also has Sun in Sagittarius and the Moon in Aquarius which is a signature for a sharp move. Will it be a reversal up or down. Don't know at this point but it may be a deciding move to tell us if we are in a new or older Primary cycle which is very important.



Watch the following support levels. If we close below then it is bearish.
DJIA 10236.79
SP500 1080.90
Gold 1129.53 cash
Silver 17.73 cash
Oil 76.08 cash

Watch the following resistance. A close above then it is bullish.
DJIA 10418.85
SP500 1107.78
Gold 1163.43 cash
Silver 19.11 cash
Oil 79.63 cash

The pennies are really not that useful but it appears very accurate with them :)

Thursday, November 19, 2009

SP500Update on Nov 19, 2009

We are currently at 13 td's from the Primary Cycle trough on Nov 2. We are in the timeframe for a trading cycle trough. Trading cycles occur 2-4 weeks after a primary trough and are a good time to get in if you missed the primary trough, like I did on Nov 2.

I'm expecting 1 or 2 more days of pullback, however, the market could gap up tomorrow. It needs close watching so it does not get away from us.











I'll buy on a gap down tomorrow or if we gap up look to short at the 50% retracement of the move down on Nov 19. On the intra day note how it came up at the close to the 38.2% retracement of the move down in the morning.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Fun with PHI

The following chart shows a calculation using PHI.

It takes the value of the SP500 at the March 2009 low, which was $666, and multiplies that number by PHI to the power of 5 as (666 * .618034^5). The result in trading days is shown on the red lines. This is an indicator for a change in trend.

The next red line is November 19, 2009, and is expected to be a market turn.
Please note this calculation and many others were developed by Stan Harley. A very interesting fellow who brings a scientific approach to the markets. He can be found at http://www.harleymarketletter.com/




In addition Nov 19 has the moon in conjunction to Pluto, which is of course squaring Saturn, both being in Cardinal signs. Watch for a market move 1:30pm to 2:07pm that day.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

SP500 Continued

For now we have labelled Nov 2 as the Primary cycle low with an eye out to the next week, that we could get another lower low. This maybe wishful thinking. Following is our updated chart.



Other items to note MACD is continuing in negative divergence to price and weekly volumes continue to be quite low. Where have all the buyers gone or are funds and hedge funds trading amongst themselves to drive price up.

If, however, the SP500 breaks 1100 - 1110 decisively then get long, or at least cover any shorts, as it may signal a large move up.

Other interesting things to note.

In trading days Mar 6, 2009 to Nov 13, 2009 was 1/2 the number of days from Oct 11, 2009 to March 6, 2009.

In calender dates Mar 6, 2009 to Nov 17, 2009 was 1/2 the number of calendar days from Oct 11, 2009 to March 6, 2009.

Nov 16, 2009 is 178 trading days from the March 6 low (178 /2 = 89) a fib number.

Nov 16 is a new moon from which downtrends often start. Oct 11, 2007 was a new moon.

The following chart shows a PHI time series, this time starting at Aug 11, 2009. Aug 11 was the start of the last major down move. Note the tendency for troughs to occur around the PHI dates. The next date is Nov 23, 2009.

Also on this chart the blue cicles show the new moon dates. Note the tendency for the times around new moons to denote crests from which drops start. Not all the time, but it is there. More about moons on a future post.











Following are Pivot and 2 levels of resistance and support for Nov 16, 2009. This is an old technique that often still works.

Pivot Point $1,092.19
R1 $1,099.09
S1 $1,086.59
R2 $1,104.69
S2 $1,079.69

Amidst all the noise of daily and intra-day charts it is best to look at a weekly. We are very close to a 50% retracement of the move down from the Oct 11, 2007 high to the Mar 6, 2009 low. See the chart.



To summarise we are 50% of price and time.

Monday, November 9, 2009

In Follow Up To the Previous Post

Today the SP500 appeared to make a turn up, although on low volume. It would also appear, at this point that the primary cycle low was made on November 2 in which case it would be best to clover all shorts and look to get long.

Although the SP500 did not make new highs the DJIA did. This is either a case of intermarket bearish divergence where both indexes will fall in the next couple of days or the SP500 will follow the DJIA to new highs. It would be best to monitor both.

In the current environment where the US$ is falling and apparently will not get support from the US Treasury it would be best to assume stocks and commodities are on their way up. It would take a fast and substantial reversal in the next couple of days to change this opinion. Trading is difficult!

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Trading the Primary Cycle - A Lesson

In follow up to our forecast post for the SP500 we are now in a trading position where we have an important decision to be made.

To recap we have been forcasting a primary cycle low between Nov 9 - 23 and more probably Nov 13 / 16, 2009. That is we have been looking for a low in the red box on the following chart.




Now, however, the SP500 has met all the minimum criteria for a primary cycle low having just occured. It has been the minimum 2 weeks from the crest (PT on the chart) and price has broken through the 25 day simple moving average (the green line on the above chart). Should we now buy? These are the difficult decisions in trading.

My decision is that the primary low is not in yet and I'll await the Nov 13 - 16 time frame. If at any time price exceeds the high om Oct 20th, 2009 then we must realize our error, close any shorts and get long.

Why Nov 13 / 16. Nov. 13 is 1/2 the number of trading days of the move down from Oct 11, 2007 to March 6, 2009 and Nov. 16 is 178 trading days from the March 6 low. (178 is 89 * 2, 89 being a Fib number). Nov. 16 is also a new moon and the first trading after the Saturn Pluto square. Nov. 19 has the Moon conjunct Pluto at 1:30pm and Pluto will be at mid-heaven (directly overhead) at 2:07pm. All times are based on EST in New York city.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Forecast SP500

The following diagram shows the forecast for the primary cycle low of mid-November 2009. It now appears the cycle crest was October 20, 2009.

The primary cycle trough is now forecast to be bewteen November 9 to November 23, 2009 and between SP500 950-1110. See the red box on the following chart.

Return on Your Money

In these difficult times it is not "the return on your money" that is important, it is "the return of your money"

I continue to look for a low in the SP500 in mid-November 2009. I also expect a rise thereafter into year and probably into 2010. I will go into detail on this cycle once the mid-November low is in place.

Next year, however, has the potential for more serious lows. The summer of 2010 in particular may be a time to protect your money, that is ensure it's return.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Forecast SP500

To follow up on previous forecasts.

PHI and SPY October 25, 2009
We got the reversal lower. We may get a bounce in the next day or so but should be headed down. Looking for a mid-November 2009 trough. See below.

Forecast from 09/27/2009
The markets were up but kept going up past our Oct 12 date. Nevertheless it would appear we have seen the top of the primary cycle (nominal 18 week cycle) and should be headed down into mid-November 2009. We may get a bounce here shortly but still looking for mid-November for the trough. This would be approx. 18 weeks from the previous primary cycle bottom (PB) of the cycle which is in the range of 15 - 23 weeks. See chart below. The blue line running through the red Nov 9-23 line is 89 trading days time 2 from the March 6, 2009 bottom. 89 being a Fibonacci number.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

PHI and SPY

Now if PHI is significant, we should be getting to a high and downturn very shortly.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Active - Heliocentric Mars

The nature of Mars is aggressive and competitive. In mythology it is the God of war. Mars can be prominent during those days in which there is an increase in international tensions, perhaps even threats of war. In the markets, volume tends to increase when Mars is present, and possibly sharp swings in price.

Mars is also the fight or flight impulse. When active relative to a trading perspective, selling is often a consequence because it will tend to scatter any previous trend or consensus.

In heliocentric centric Astrology Mars will be very active. The following will be occurring shortly.

Oct 25 Mars trine Chiron

Oct 26 Mars square Uranus

Oct 27 Mars trine Neptune

Oct 28 Mars square Saturn

Hard aspects from Mars to Uranus / Saturn can point to violence tension or geophysical stress (earthquakes or volcanic activity).

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Follow up on Crude Oil - 16 Week Cycle

The 16 week cycle in crude hit on the week of Oct. 12, 2009 as predicted. It can now be seen breaking through the 38.2% retracement level. This should be watched closely as it should either fail here or move quickly to the 50% retracement around $90.00.



This is not a conspiracy blog, however, it should be noted the Saudi's and other mid east states seem to be picking up the slack in buying US treasuries. China's purchases have been declining. Could an increasing price in crude be their reward?

The next 16 week cycle will hit around Jan 29, 2010.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Fibonacci Numbers and the Market

Without going into the history, the following outlines the basic Fibonacci series is: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89... as the sequence progresses each number is the sum of the previous two numbers (ex. 89 = 34 + 55).

Also the ratio between each successive number approaches 1.61803398...
(ex. 89 / 55 = 1.61818). This number is known as PHI and is seen in nature and ancient architecture.

Our purpose is to see how useful these numbers are in the financial markets. Use google or your library to get a history of Fibonacci and the number sequence.

The number sequence is often used in market cycle (ex. 34 or 55 trading days) or (55 or 89 trading weeks).

PHI or it's inverse is often used for price retracements and less often for time forecasts. Thus we have 1.618, .618, .382, .236 (ex. .382 * .618)

Just for interest for Astro fans,
5 heliocentric conjunctions of Earth and Venus: 5x584 days =2920 days.
8 orbits of the Earth around the Sun: 8x365.25 days = 2922 days.
13 orbits of Venus around the Sun: 13x224.7 days = 2921 days.

Examples of all these can be found below.

Following is a weekly chart for crude oil dated Oct 12, 2009.



The above chart shows a retracement range from the top July 2008 to the bottom Feb 2009. Note as price of crude oil rises it stops just short of the 38.2% retracement then goes down and bounces off the 23.6% level. Incidentally crude has just completed a 16 week cycle and is due to head upwards. If it breaks through the 38.2% level it may take off much higher. Watching this level is most important.

Following is a daily chart of the DJIA showing a 55 trading day cycle, the blue line.











Following is a daily chart for the DJIA showing PHI future extensions based on the fall from Oct 10, 2007 to March 9, 2009.


Saturday, October 3, 2009

Problems at the FED

A brief post on the potential, upcoming problems at the FED.

This is done by examining the astrological chart of the FED, when it was created, and the major transiting planets about to activate this chart.

The Federal Reserve Natal Chart used is based on the following:
Dec 23, 1913
6:02pm EST +5
Washington, DC

Summary
------------
For those not interested in the Astrology, the Fed is about to be hit with some strong astrological aspects. The two main purposes of the FED are to 1.) ensure monetary and price stability and 2.) prevent bank failures. Either of these two main purposes could be affected. A challenge to the structure or existence of the FED or a shakeup in it’s leadership could also be affected. Whatever happens it should be a dramatic change, which will not be reversed.

These are long term aspects, which may take months to materialize, however, as is often the case longer term signatures can be triggered by shorter term aspects. A list of potential trigger dates can be found at the end of this note.

A crisis is brewing and in one way or another it will affect the nations money, directly or indirectly.

It should be apparent by mid November 2009.

Astrology
------------
The major themes in this natal chart are secretive power and inflation.

On first look the themes that jump out of this chart are the Sun / Pluto opposition T squared to Midheaven, the loose Mars / Neptune conjunction rising and opposing Jupiter and the mutual reception between the Moon and Pluto.

In mundane / financial astrology the Sun stands for the core values of an organization, it’s raison d'ĂȘtre. It can also stand for it’s leader, in this case Ben Bernanke.

The Sun is the principle of life, beginnings and creation, while Pluto is the principle of death, destruction, endings and change that is not going to be reversed. The Sun / Pluto are in opposition and in a T square to Midheaven. This shows a tendency to accumulate power in hidden clandestine ways. Pluto is in the 12 house of hidden things and endings and in mutual reception with the moon (the public) which is in secretive Scorpio in the 5th house. The Sun also rules the 2nd house of resources and money.

There is no room for restraint with a Mars / Neptune Jupiter aspect. This is not a signature one would want to find in an organization responsible for a countries money, but here it is.

So what’s coming up and when?
Pluto has been conjunct the Fed’s natal Sun since sometime in 2008, depending on what orb one uses. So what’s the big deal.

Pluto will be in exact conjunction with the natal Sun on November 9 and Saturn will be squaring Pluto and thus the Fed’s natal Sun on November 15, having just arrived in the cardinal sign of Libra on October 29. Both Saturn and Pluto are slow moving planets. The Pluto Sun conjunction has been forming for months and the Saturn square for weeks.

We therefore must look for trigger planets that could set dramatic changes off. The following are possibilities.

Oct. 10 Mercury squared Pluto having just arrived in Libra.

Oct. 15 Venus squared Pluto having just arrived in Libra. Stock market slide?

Oct 18 Mars quincunx Pluto. Stock market slide?

Oct 24 Sun sextile Pluto

Oct 28 Transiting Mars opposing natal Uranus
Transiting Sun square natal Uranus
Saturn enters 4th House
Note: Natal Uranus is in the 7th house of open enemies

Oct 29 Saturn enters Libra

Nov 9 Pluto conjunct natal Sun
Venus sextile Pluto

Nov 15 Saturn squared Pluto

Nov 16 Mercury sextile Saturn

Crude Oil - 16 week Cycle

This post shows the 16 week cycle in crude oil. The next cycle is due Oct 5 - 12, 2009.



As can be seen this from previous cycles this can either be a crest or a trough. This would appear to be forming a trough, in which case crude and the stock of related companies would be good purchases once the trough is confirmed.

This chart also shows the fibonacci retracement areas from the mid-2008 highs to the early January lows. (23.6, 38.2, 50.0, 61.8).

These will be important points in many charts and will be the subject of a post in the near future.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Forecast 09/27/2009

Forecasts will be based on the SP500 as many other North American indexes will follow it closely. Forecast for Gold, Silver Oil, US$ etc. will be noted.

I am looking for the SP500 to reverse to up on Sept 28-29 near the Mercury Direct date. The market should be generally up until the week of Oct 12 where I am expecting a crest and then a market fall until approximately the middle of November.

For Astrologers
The relevant geocentric Astros are
Mars opposition North Node on October 9 '09
Jupiter Direct on Oct 12 '09
Venus translating the Saturn Uranus opposition from Oct 9 - 13 '09
Mercury Shadow date on Oct 14 '09
Venus square Pluto Oct 15 (both in cardinal signs)
Sun Trine Jupiter on October 16
Saturn square Pluto Nov 15

I will define more exact dates as we get closer in time and see how the technical indcators unfold.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Mercury Retrograde / First Blog

Introduction

As this is the first post a brief explanation of what I will be covering on this blog is appropriate.

Market cycles
Each market has it’s own cycles, that is continuing crests and troughs. Examples are the 18 /36 week cycle in Stocks, the 55 trading cycle in stocks, the 56-week cycle in Silver and the 16-week cycle in Oil. Examples of each will be given in subsequent blogs.

Astrological Cycles
In addition to market cycles this blog will also cover astrological cycles. This will include geocentric astrology (earth centred) and heliocentric astrology (sun centred) For the dubious we will be demonstrating these, mostly in chart form.

Unlike many sites, which explain why the markets behave this way or that way, after the fact, the purpose of this blog is to forecast events before they occur. The blog posts with dates will be a record of how we have fared.

To give some examples in this initial post I will use the Mercury retrograde period as a short-term timing indicator for stocks and the heliocentric passage of Mercury into Sagittarius as a signature for Gold.

In geocentric astrology planets can appear to move backwards. They do not of course, but when viewed from earth; the different speeds of the planets can make it appear a planet is going backwards.

Please bear in mind the examples given isolate on one particular astrological aspect and should be viewed in the context of all other astrological activity occurring at a point in time.

The following daily chart of the DJIA shows when Mercury goes retrograde ( red circle) and when it goes direct again (blue circle). At both of these points Mercury would appear to be standing still when viewed from earth. Take a moment to view these points. Note they often occur at highs or lows in the DJIA. At the very least we can say they appear at a short-term change in trend (CIT). In addition there are a number of dates on the chart. These are labelled Mercury shadow dates and are the date when Mercury has moved back to the position it was at when it previously went retrograde. Please note the number of market turns which have occurred within +- 4 days of the Mercury shadow date.



The next Mercury direct date (blue circle) is Sept 29, 2009, the next Mercury Shadow date is October 14, 2009, therefore we are forecasting a market turn +- 4 days from October 14th. This could be up or down, but from other analysis I am forecasting this to be a move down.

Heliocentric Mercury passing through the sign of Sagittarius usually denotes volatility in precious metals and currencies. In particular Gold, see the following daily chart, is volatile and often moves up or down dramatically in the first 10 degrees of Sagittarius. The red x’s denote the days that Heliocentric Mercury is in Sagittarius.

The next passage of Heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius starts November 11, 2009 to November 21, 2009. Look for volatility on Gold near November 11. I will use technical indicators as we get closer to that date and post a forecast whether Gold should be going up or down at that time.