Friday, August 20, 2010

Week of August 23

For stocks the last two calls of Aug 9 and Aug 19 have been right on. Oil has also turned lower; however, Gold and Silver have not turned down although Friday Aug 20 may have been the start of a turn.

Following is a daily chart of the SP500. It is our working chart and therefore quite busy. There are multiple fib retracements shown based on different highs and lows. Note the low today around 1062 (green). If this level fails we are looking at the 1040-1042 area quickly. We may be near the trough (or close) of the 1st major cycle of the primary cycle. As noted we are in the 7th or 8th week. Next Monday and Tuesday, Aug 23/24 are critical in determining short term direction. It appears the 1100 area will act as firm resistance. Any quick move up, which cannot break through 1100 should be shorted.

Cycles and technicals are not very definitive. The busy Astro period is in the process of ending.

Generally speaking the whole market is weak and down is the easiest path. We are sitting on shorts, awaiting Aug 23/23 action with an eye toward Sept 1/3 for a short term low.

Looking back to the March 2009 low and calculating fib time series from the low we get the following chart. The previous fib counts (red lines) have been close to lows. The next fib count is Sept 1/3. We are looking for a low around the Sept 1/3. Keep in mind these can invert.

Looking at a fib time expansion from the Feb 5, 2010 low to the April 26, 2010 high we get August 27th at 1.618 (red lines). On the same chart we are showing the 30 cd cycle (blue lines). This next occurs on Sept 3, 2010.

More on Oil and Gold later

As we are looking at these short term charts we should keep the big picture in mind. Following is a monthly log scale chart of the DJIA showing an approx. 17.6 year chart. Note the successive swings from up to down. As noted on the chart, this is much more powerful on an inflation adjusted chart. Note the cycle we are in. We are in a bull market rally in cyclical bear market.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Week of August 15th

We are in a decisive time period where we either are going down or up quickly. I'm looking at Aug 19 and 20th as the key swing dates although it appears there will be great volatility at the open and the close of each trading day.

Although it is very difficult to pick intra day swings using Astrology the afternoon of August 19th looks very volatile and could be the main CIT (change in trend).

I'll post charts, time permitting, tomorrow.

This is option expiry week.

Investors should be out of the market, long term traders should be out of the market. Short term traders, fasten your seat belts, put on your trading diapers (you are not leaving that screen this week) and have fun.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Week of Aug 9, 2010

To repeat the quotation:

Neils Bohr
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."

It is a difficult time right now.

That being the case here goes. We are looking for a significant top between now and August 23. Previously posted date were;
There are triggers
July 30, 31
Aug 3
Aug 6,9
Aug 20,23
Sept 23

All dates should be +- a couple. As a wiser man than me has said, "Don't make a fetish about exact dates". There's so much more to make fetishes about I guess.

To refine these dates we are now looking for CITs at

Aug 9,10 . This is at the 72td cycle and at a Perigee Moon. We continue in the Cardinal Climax period, which could affect any day, and maybe none.

At this time we are also assuming the early July lows were the 72 week low and therefore the nominal 18 week primary cycle low as well. As such we should expect a surge out of these lows which we are getting.

The next key dates for CITS are Aug 20, 23. Aug 20 has Mercury starting retrograde, the Sun opposing Neptune which is a Merriman 3* date and Venus at maximum elongation east of the Sun (Evening Star) and starting towards it's inferior conjunction. That weekend we have Saturn squared Pluto, a long term transit and Venus conjunct Mars. This time frame could tie into a 16 week cycle crest and then down.

Although we are looking for a CIT which would take the market down we should keep in mind the Summation Index is pointed up and quite strong. On the daily chart the 13 ema has crossed the 34 ema. The weekly charts look even stronger.

The bottom line. Let price action guide your decisions.

On other markets and commodities we have been looking for Gold to peak out soon and expect a decline to begin within the next 1 to 1 1/2 weeks. Silver would follow.

Cycle wise crude should fall into mid August.

With any analysis we put more emphasis on cycles, both market and astrological and technical analysis. We view the news as just interrupting the current cycles that are at play.

That said this is a news driven market with wild intra-day swings. We have the FED meeting on Tuesday with the possibility of further quantitative easing. This would have the short term effect of driving stocks, PM's and crude up and create a wild currency market.

Much more to say here but running out of time. One last point, without a chart, we had a target of 1140-1150 in the SP based on Fib retracements. We could certainly get there if additional quantitative easing is on the table.

And why did kamikaze pilots wear helmets? People want to know.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Week of Aug 2, 2010 start

In addition to the long term Astro events there are a number of time Fib cycles coming due.

Aug 2 is 61.8% the number of days from the March 6, 2009 low to the January 19, 2010 high. (See the red grid on the attached chart)

Aug 3 is 1.272% the number of days from Feb 5, 2010 low to the April 26, 2010 high.
(See the green grid on the attached chart)

Remember the measured move. We may be rising, with a lot of volatility into mid-month before a more significant correction and get to the 1140 - 1150 range in the SP500.

With the Astros in effect, anything can and may happen. See previous dates.