Thursday, January 28, 2010

SP500 Update

The down turn from approx Jan 15th has been more intense than expected. This looks like it is ripe for a bounce up to the 50% or 61.8% retracement of the move down. So this would be approx. $1,114 - $1,122. $1,114 is also on the 50dma. See Chart below.

This should only be a bounce and more downward movement is expected after da bounce.

Timewise this move down has been on the 6 week cycle and I am expecting the 50 week cycle trough in the March timeframe. Dates I am looking at are Feb 3rd which is a Mercury shadow date and could mark the bounce and March 10 for the 50 week trough, which is the Mars direct date. Both dates should be +- a few. Following are charts showing recent history of the Mercury shadow dates and Mars Direct. They are charts of the DJIA.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

2010 Updated Forecast

It appears the start of a change in trend took place on Jan 15th as predicted. This does not mean a few 100 million dollars streaming into the markets from the plunge protection team / working group won't happen, but at the moment it would appear we have just seen a crest.

The crest of what is the question. This could be the crest of the 6 week cycle in which case we would be looking at a pull-back of a couple of dayes to a couple of weeks. It could also be a crest of the primary cycle (nominal 18 week cycle) in which case it would also probably be a crest of the 50 week cycle. The latter is expected to trough out late Feb or March or early April.

We therefore must watch the price action for the next few days to determine if this is a 6 week cycle crest or the crest to the longer term 50 week. My feeling at the moment is, it is the 50 week cycle crest in which case we are looking to trend down for the next few weeks.

I will be looking at cycles and Astros to determine a more accurate timeframe for the 50 week cycle to trough out.

Identifying and trading this trough will be very important. There is a Jupiter / Uranus conjunction in Aries in early June which may be very favourable to the markets (read blow off top type of configuration).

More will be coming on this important event as there will be more on the very tough Astro picture in late July / early August.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

2010 Prelimiary Forecast

Predictions are difficult – especially about the future. Nevertheless we need a plan as we approach a new trading year. Just remember plans change, sometimes very quickly.

Also remember all the financial experts, which give you firm unequivocal assurance that a stock, ETF or fund will be a great investment in 1, 3 or 5 years typically can’t tell you where the markets will be tomorrow. Why do they want your money? Do they just want to honestly help you or are they going to make money off your money? The answer is obvious.

As we start a new decade also remember a dollar invested in the broad market in 1999 lost money. Long term investing has failed in the last 10 years. Time in the market has made the investor a loser. Market timers, on the other hand have made money. Giving your money to someone else to manage is the easy route. Investing for yourself is difficult business. YOU have to do the work. The message of this site is "Do the Work". You'll have no one to blame but yourself.

This should be an extremely volatile year. I’m looking for lows around March and August. We should also get extreme highs, more on these as the year progresses and the fullness of time make things clearer.

By the end of the year we should be able to look back and see that debt, as in non-payment of debt, was the major financial theme. This theme may be disguised during the year as the FED and other central banks continue to flood the markets and economy with money to stave off the deflationary pressures. Eventually this will fail and deflation will take hold or their massive monetary manipulation will be successful and inflation will be on the horizon. Under either scenario precious metals should be the investment vehicle with the best capital protection. Capital protection should be primary goal of all investors in 2010 and probably 2011 as well.

As we progress in the year we will issue more detailed forecasts, typically for each month. For January I am looking for a CIT (change in trend) in stocks in the January 13-15 timeframe. This may very will be a crest to the 6 week cycle, although it could equally be a trough, but a CIT nevertheless. Let’s see how this unfolds before being so bold as to divine further forecasts.

In January Oil could make a short term high in the first week of the year. Forecasting Gold may have to wait until we determine whether the last high was the high of the current primary cycle, in which case it is very left translated and therefore very bearish in the intermediate term.

We may also be looking at a year fraught with geopolitical tension and significant earthquake and volcanic activity. Massive changes will also be a theme.

St. Francis of Assisi
"What everyone is looking for, is what is looking."