Monday, January 28, 2013

Stock Market Cycles

A number of people have asked me for more information on stock market cycles.

I'll do a post later on the cycles I use but as background information the following is a link to a cycle trading manual prepared by one of the great cycle analysts Walter Bressert

Bear in mind this is an approach to find cycles and there are a lot more cycles than mentioned in the manual. It is an approach on finding and using cycles.

After reading the manual you should have a good background in centering and detrending moving averages.

Financial Astrology - Jan 28, 2013

For those who have been following along you know I was expecting a low for the SP500 in this time frame, late Jan / early Feb based on market cycles and Astrology. The lesson to be learned, again, is cycles can invert so what was expected to be a low results in a high and vice versa.

Looking at where we are now and the new money (probably the FED and primary dealers) we may be looking at a turn shortly. At this point I'm not expecting a crash in the near term but a 10% pull back would be healthy.

Date wise I've been looking Jan 30 or Feb 7 as potential turn dates +- a couple of td's

Jan 30 has Jupiter turning direct.

Feb 7 is also 55 td's from the Nov 16, 2012 low and has Venus in waning trine to Jupiter. Feb 7 is also 1/2 way between Jupiter direct and Saturn retrograde. Feb 7 also has Moon conjunct Pluto which are both opposite 10 degrees of Cancer. 10 degrees of Cancer is heliocentric North Node of Jupiter and a powerful point.

From Feb 6-8 there are a number of factors showing a reversal for Silver and therefore PM's in general. This happens when Sun is Aquarius, Moon in Aquarius and Mercury in Pisces.

On Feb 9 the Sun will be squaring the North Node of the Moon. This is the first such square after the Nov 13, 2012 Solar eclipse and is another powerful point.

In short the time period around Feb 7 should either be a bottom or a turn at the top for the SP500. PM's in particular may be making a low in this time frame.

Going back to the January 1, 2013 post I had expected a low in Gold (PM's) and crude.

For Gold I was looking for a 17 month cycle low or a 4.25 year low. If the latter it could be later this year (long cycles need a wider time frame). At this point a 17 month low is quite possible and the Astros around February 7th would fit well.

For crude the low was based on the 16 and 24 week cycles and should hit within 2 weeks (approx.) of early February.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Financial Astrology January 22, 2013

The Boyz look intent on pushing the SP500 over 1500.

We are coming into a number of Astros which would point to a trend reversal although the late January, early Feb low may not be as deep as I originally expected. Key dates to watch for are

Jan 23
Jan 28-30

Still short but covered losses with some Gold trades which I am now out of. It's the Gold mining company stock trades that have been moving.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Government Sachs - Me and my bitches

As I try and determine the next market move I found this

and this (Bernanke face is the best)

"Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive"

Now back to work.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Monday, January 14, 2013

Financial Astrology Jan 14, 2013

The following daily chart of the SP500 shows we are slightly above the 127.2% extended retracement. I'm still short but will cover at 1476.

At this point I should mention Jan 25 appears to be an interesting time. Cycle wise it is on a 8 td cycle, an  18 td cycle and a 161 td cycle. In addition there is a Venus quintile Uranus aspect. This aspect is often near a short term high then down. It also has the Sun trine Jupiter. This is the trine that always occurs approx 5 to 6 days before Jupiter turns direct motion.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Financial Astrology - late March 2013

For the SP500 the 127.2% retracement around $1465 continues to hold.

This was first mentioned in the Sept 17, 2012 post.

If the SP index goes through this area forcefully on strong volume it may make this area a formidable support.

In my second last post I brought up the late March time frame. This appears to be a very important time period for the markets based on a number of Astrological factors.

Although I have been looking for a low late January / early February 2013, and still am, I think the late March 2013 will be a critical time period and a significant CIT (Change In Trend) or a low. The Astrological aspects centre around the Uranus / Pluto square. As covered in a number of previous post this square often manifests as social unrest, debt / financial problems. The square is exact again on May 20, 2013.

March 22 Mars conjunct Uranus
March 26 Mars square Pluto

March 28 Sun conjunct Venus and both conjunct Uranus
March 31 Sun square Pluto, Venus square Pluto.

In addition Uranus is at "8 degrees Aries 32 minutes" on March 30, 2013. When was the last time Uranus was at this position? Recently on July 13, 2013 July 13, 2012 and prior to that date October 1929.

Note: Date changed from July 13, 2013 should have been July 13, 2012 on Jan 11, 2013

As stated above I'm looking for either a significant low or CIT during the last 2 weeks of March 2013.

Slightly earlier, on March 18th, the North Node will conjunct the point of the May 9, 2013 Solar eclipse. Transits of the North Node over eclipse points can result in significant world events.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Financial Astrology - The Bounce

From our last post this is the bounce. If this goes above 1465 on good volume, watch out. I suspect we will not and will turn down around

Jan 6  Mercury conjunct Pluto and sextile Saturn
Jan 7  Mars square Saturn

Jan 12 Venus square Uranus
Jan 16 Venus conjunct Pluto

One of the above dates should mark a turn down into the lows defined in the previous post.

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Financial Astrology January 1, 2013

As we await the “Cliff” negotiations this post will cover the next month and a little more.

The SP500, like all markets await the above mentioned cliff. Beyond that the SP is in the 7th week of the first Major cycle (nominal 6 week) of the Primary cycle which started Nov 16, 2012. With the increase on Dec 31, 2012 it may be starting the 1st week of the 2nd Major cycle in the primary cycle. It is therefore due for at least a bounce. This will be totally dependent on what happens with the Cliff negotiations. Assuming it is passed then a short upswing. After the Cliff negotiations have ended the market then realize nothing much has changed in the world economy and the markets are built on a foundation of sand.

We await the slide which should start by mid Jan’13 at the latest with a bottom in late Jan / early February 2013.
We have the 33/66 week cycle due and the fib count of 987 td from the March 2009 lows.

On the following weekly chart of the SP500 the red vertical line is the 33/66 week cycle. I’m looking for this to be close to a low.

On the following  daily chart of the DJIA the blue vertical lines are the fib count from the March 2009 lows. I’m looking for this to be close to a low.

From here, early Feb 2013 we should go up but I’m looking for another low around late March. This could be the 4 year low or it waits until Mid-June to mid July ’13.

Following is a weekly chart of the SP500 showing the current 4 year cycle which started at the March 2009 lows. The nominal 4 year cycle is most often broken down into three 15.5 month. So far this 4 year cycle has followed this cycle type almost exactly. Cycles are typically distorted at the end of the cycle so I don't expect the 4 year to end exactly on the 3rd 15.5 month cycle but I do expect it to trough out late Jan / early Feb or late March / early April or mid June to mid July. My first choice at this point is the June / July time frame, my second choice is the March / April time frame.

It should be noted the next 3 Uranus / Pluto squares which have been directly associated with the debt problems are:
May 20, 2013
Nov 1, 2013
November 21, 2013 this is heliocentrically and only occurs once.

Also Mars translates the square on
March 22-27
July 27- Aug 1
Dec 25 -31

I'll go into detail on the eclipses on a future post. The first Solar eclipse is on May 9, 2013 and is still in the Taurus / Scorpio signs. These are money signs.

If we use the 8.5 year Gold cycle it appears we are in the time frame for a Gold low then up. Breaking the 8.5 years down into 3 cycles of 34 months (a fib number) each we get the Sept 2011 low. We would now be in the time frame for a 17 month low (1/2 of 34 months) and possible 4.5 year low. The time frame is late Jan / early Feb 2013. These longer term cycles need a broad range. Following is a weekly chart of Gold. If a major low is forming in the late Jan / early Feb 2013 look to buy.

On a shorter term basis Gold moved lower than the Primary cycle trough which occurred on Nov 5, 2012. Gold maybe starting it's second Major cycle but since it went lower than the Primary the cycle is bearish. Watch price action to see if this changes.

 Crude follows a 16 week and 24 week cycles. The following weekly chart of crude shows the 16 week cycle (red vertical lines), the 24 week cycle (blue vertical lines) and the green vertical lines where the 16 and 24 week cycles meet. The next meeting of the 16 and 24 week cycles is Feb 4, 2013. Looking back this could be a high or a low although crests have been more common.

Longer term I expect the world economy to be flat to down into 2017 and probably not picking up steam until 2020. It will have some ups and downs in the mean time. There should be some tremendous technology breakthroughs during and after the Uranus / Pluto square. The last time Uranus / Pluto were conjunct was the 1960's. This was a tumultuous time but remember the internet was invented then (sorry, it wasn't Al Gore) so were mini computer, Unix, and a number of programming languages.