The first order of business is to correct the Primary cycle count. After an email discussion with one of our readers I believe the Primary cycle count I've been using for the SP500 is incorrect. Mr. L. S. pointed out the Dow probably had Primary cycle low on May 20th. This would put us 10 weeks along in it's Primary cycle. One thing we look for in a Primary cycle (nominal 18 week or 90 td's) is for price to break through the 15 day sma then the 45 day sma. The 45 day being 1/2 of the approx. 90 td cycle. Another thing we look for is the 15 day sma break below the 45 day sma. This did not happen in this case.
Looking at the following daily chart of the DJIA we see that price broke through the 45 sma very briefly around the May 20th low. This is a weak low but helps explain where we are at the present time, that being 10 weeks along a Primary cycle that started on May 20th. It helps to get differing opinions on these cycles. In this case I say thank you to Mr. L.S. and his input which was very correct.
While we are at it, following is a revised Primary cycle count for the SP500. Price dipped below the 45 sma very briefly on May 15th. This puts us in the 10th week of the Primary cycle. The following daily chart of the SP500 reflects the changes to the cycles.
Note the 15 and 45 sma (simple moving average). They are both plotted normally as you would see on most sites.
When searching for cycles it is very useful to center the moving averages. That is move the 15 and 45 sma's back 7 and 22 days respectively ( it's a daily chart) if your software can do it.
Following is the same chart of the SP500 with the moving averages centered, or moved back 1/2 of the moving average length.
Compare the two charts. Note how the Primary cycle troughs stand out more when the moving averages are centered. For a Primary cycle low ideally we want to see the 15 sma lower than the 45 sma and price lower than both. So this is useful when looking back in time and trying to identify cycle turns. We also get more accurate counts of where we are in the current Primary cycle. In this case 10 weeks along rather than the 24th week which we had on the previous weeks report.
That said we are still looking for a move down in both the above indexes but not as deep as a Primary cycle low because it isn't. They are 10 weeks along.
What should also be noted is the Primary cycle has had, over a long period of time, an average of 18 weeks with a range of 15-23 weeks. As can be seen on the above charts the lengths of the Primary cycle have been short for the last year and one-half coming in at approx. 16 weeks. This needs to be watched.
This is now pointing to mid September time frame for a Primary cycle low.
That said what does the SP500 look like now?
Thursday July 24 was a Doji (often seen at turns) and then down on Friday July 25th. The coming week has Venus translating the Uranus / Pluto square. I expect to see a volatile up and down week. There is an FOMC meeting on Wednesday July 30th.
What is coming up in August looks nasty. I've mentioned July 20 had Saturn turning direct and July 21 Uranus turning retrograde. I've also mentioned in previous posts there is a time window around the dates of retrograde and direct movement. The above mentioned time windows extend to Aug 8 when the Sun trines Uranus and Aug 9th the Sun squares Saturn. That weekend there is another perigee Full Moon on Aug 10th (or Super Moon). Saturn is in a T-Square configuration to this Super Moon. Watched out for major accidents, violent weather and geophysical events.
The above are stressing Saturn which is in the sign of Scorpio. Both Saturn and Pluto transiting Scorpio have a history of epidemics and general health concerns. Currently there is an Ebola outbreak in Africa and a possible bubonic plague occurrence in
China. With Saturn in Scorpio and
Mars catching up to Saturn with a conjunction on Aug 25th, I would expect these
epidemic outbreaks to worsen in the month of August.
Saturn in Scorpio can also represent changes in tax structure and problems with debt.
has had some recent bank debt problems. I expect there will be more.
Aug 25th is also 1,998 cd's from the March 6, 2009 low on the SP500 which was 666. 1998 = 666 * 3. Watch this date.
Gold is in the 8th week of it's Primary cycle and the first Major cycle (6 week, with a range of 5-7 weeks) of the Primary. We have now had two attempts to break through the 1293.75 area which is 50% retracement of the move up from June 3rd to July 10th.
July 25 had Mars in Quintile to Pluto as it entered the sign of Scorpio. On July 26 the New Moon squares Mars as it entered Scorpio. The current daily chart for Gold follows.
Any move below $1280,on strong volume and I will be out. Subscribers have the dates where I expect we'll see a rise in Gold prices and for how long.
Silver is in the 9th week of it's Primary cycle. Like Gold we got the pullback we were looking for. Nevertheless I bought. We could still get a pullback. I'm looking for Silver to take out previous highs, first, on Feb 24, 2014 then Oct 30, 2013. Like Gold I'll buy any declines from here. Any move below the May 30 low and I will be out. Remember the only metals that has been manipulated more than Gold is Silver. The Central Banks of the world will fight against rising precious metals prices. They want your money in stocks.
Two specific dates for Silver were given to subscribers this week.
We are in the 13th week of the Primary cycle in crude and it appear to have put in the second Major cycle trough of the Primary cycle. With the problems in the mid-East, production of crude and it's transport may be a large problem forcing the price of crude up.
Seasonally week, yes, but Jupiter is moving into degrees in the Zodiac which have been very important for the price of crude and decisions related to crude and the regions boundaries in the mid-East.
From last weeks post:
"Will borders be changed? Will
be receiving more oil from the Kurds? Will the Israel US,
Britain or stick their respective noses
into this situation. I'll wait and see. There is big trouble in the making.
Watch closely." France
Also from last week:
"On another note, Jupiter is the "King's planet". This may signal changes in the head's of state or other organization in any of the mid-Eastern countries. Any country with a stake in crude production in the mid-East. I would add
mix. I'm watching Turkey as well." Saudi
What I'm saying here is many people are watching Gold and other PM's. Watch crude as well. Subscribers, have had critical dates for a few weeks.
There are some other issues regarding crude. There has been a dramatic increase in small earthquakes in the states of
Some are pointing to waste water pumped into the ground after drilling shale
projects as the problem. This situation needs to be monitored closely.