For the SP500, cycle-wise we are entering the 15th week of the Primary 1 cycle which started on Feb. 2nd 2015. This cycle is aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15 to 21 weeks.
Being the 15th week we should start to look for the crest in the Primary / nominal 18 week cycle. Statistically the days around May 15th and May 21st would be good timing for a primary cycle crest.
From last weeks market letter
" Other charts and factors which point to something more negative are the 224/225 cd cycle and the Saturn sesquisquare Uranus, exact on May 4th there may be a significant change in direction, possibly instigated by a surprise event. "
"In summary I expect an increase in violent war like activity. Some of these events could occur on American soil over the next couple of weeks. We are in a period of stress which will be affected by the Mars Saturn opposition on May 15th +- a few. This is also OPEX, option expiry day which is normally volatile and difficult to predict."
Although we went down the first 3 days of the week, Thursday was a big up day and has moved price out of the symmetrical triangle as it approaches the end of the pattern. A surprise move due to the one day size of the move but not the surprise event I was looking for.
I'm looking for violence to be more extreme, if that is possible. This coming week we should see more senseless violence, anger and grief, violent weather and possibly more geophysical disturbances.
On the above chart price has broken out of the symmetrical triangle we have been following. I like to follow moves in 3's so I'm looking for price to stay above the triangle for a minimum of 3 td's, a feat the SP500 has been unable to do for the past few weeks.
Although the Saturn sesquisquare Uranus signature is slowly moving out of orb the 224/225 cd cycle is still active. As seen in the history of the following chart this cycle (red vertical lines) has been very reliable in identifying moves both up and down. I expected a larger move down and still do.
This week we have Mercury turning retrograde on May 18th. The inferior conjunction between Mercury and the Sun occurs on May 29th and Mercury turns direct again on June 11th. Since this is the inferior conjunction it is also the heliocentric conjunction between the Sun and Mercury.
As a reminder the two planets inside the Earth's orbit are Mercury and Venus. Both can have inferior and superior conjunctions depending on whether they are on the Earth;s side of the Sun or the far side of the Sun.
The following chart shows Mercury retrograde (red arrow pointing left), Mercury turning direct (blue arrow pointing right), the geocentric inferior conjunction (small red circle) and the heliocentric conjunction (small blue circle) on the same day. Note the swings in the SP500 on any of those dates in the past.
This Mercury retrograde period is occurring in Gemini, a mutable air sign which Mercury rules. Mercury also rules communication, commerce and trading, that is buying and selling. It has a reputation for problems, both communication, contracts and wrong decisions or choices. Ray Merriman of MMA has a saying for Mercury retrograde periods, that is "Take profits too soon". That meaning, if you have made a profit, don't wait until you hit resistance, get out.
The Mercury retrograde period is known to be volatile. In this instance we also have Mercury moving back from Out of Bounds, adding to the potential for increased volatility. Also, with Mars in Gemini (war of words or real war?) volatility should increase.
The last few weeks we have mentioned Venus being "Out of Bounds" OOB. Venus comes back in bounds on June 2 very close to Mars going "Out of Bounds".
There are other transits hitting May 20th through the end of the month which are reserved for subscribers. I will mention May 21 and May 25 where Venus translates the separating Uranus / Pluto square. It is still close.
I'm looking for a short but sharp move down then continuing up in June with a potential high around June 22 when Jupiter trines Uranus. The question is, do we get the move down this coming week or after Memorial day? Do we get a violent event on Memorial day?
We are looking for longer term cycles, 4 and 6 year, to end this year or 1st quarter 2016. The 4 year should end at a Primary cycle low which may be distorted. The 6 year may end there as well. The troughs for the 4 and 6 year cycles will be much deeper. There are other cycles coming due in the first half of 2015 which are reserved for subscribers.
Gold appears to have put in a put in a Primary cycle 1 trough on March 17th. This was 1 td after the Uranus / Pluto square. This puts us entering the 9th week of the nominal 18 week during this coming week.
Last weeks action has changed the short term outlook for Gold. With the surge in Gold on May 13th Gold has put in a new high for this Primary / nominal 18 week cycle. Prior to this week Gold had a very left translated cycle which was bearish. With a new hogh and potential for more Gold's cycle will be neutral or right translated which would be bullish.
Mercury retrograde (see notes above) has a strong history of changes in trend close to the retrograde date. The move last week could have been it or it is dead ahead.
Gold has now moved above the key retracement areas mentioned the last few weeks around 1218-1219. Again I would like to see 3 closes above this area.
On May 20th we hit the 2.618 time Fib based on the move down in Gold from Oct. 2012 to June 2013. Fib times often mark a move in PM's both up and down. Surprisingly Venus in opposition to Pluto on May 21st has had an inconsistent history with moves in Gold prices.
Gold made some positive moves last week but watch the May 20th date for a potential reversal. Remember the +- 2 td's.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold broke above the Venus price line and now sits just below the Jupiter price line (blue). The Jupiter price line is currently at 1225 and should act as resistance.
I still expect Gold to weaken very soon and be down until late June / early July. Currently this depends on a reversal up for the
mentioned above watch May 20th. Mid-year or shortly thereafter should be positive
This coming week of May 18 we should be entering the 15th week of a Primary cycle which started Jan 29, 2015 and appears to have put in a nominal 6 week trough on March 18th.
Crude appears to have put in a "W" bottom. Since the shooting star doji on May 6th Crude has been in sideways consolidation. Price has just moved below the 15 day sma. This being the 15th week we may have seen the crest of the nominal 18 week cycle. Watch for support at the 23.6% retracement around 57.50. Crude, like other commodities is being affected by the
As seen on the following chart the Jupiter price line (orange) gave support late in the week. If this support fails the
price line (green), which has been support / resistance in the past is at the
56.40 area. If we have seen the crest on May 6th we may be moving down.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
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