Monday, March 29, 2010

March 29th Update

We continue to wait for a pullback in the SP bewteen March 25 and April 7 even though the stock averages look positive.

There are a number of cycles and time fibs which point to this period to be a low. In addition tomorrow, March 30, the full moon will be Monday evening and possibly more importantly Mercury will be squaring the last solar eclipse point at 8:45 am March 30 in New York. The last time Mercury made a major aspect to this point was Saturday, February 6 one day after the significant low.

In addition Venus will be changing signs into Taurus on March 31 and the Moon will be entering volatile Scorpio. There are a number of heliocentric aspects on March 31, notably Venus squaring Neptune while in sextile to Uranus. This is an aspect of volatility.

We are also still looking for Oil and Gold to commence bullish trends based on factors outlined in our last post.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Dabbling with numberz

I believe the high for the 6 week cycle occured on March 17th. In such a strong bullish market, this remains to be seen at this point, but we'll do the analysis based on the March 17 high.

This being the crest we need to look for the trough of the nominal 6 week. See the following chart of the SP500.

Some notes. The chart displays time fibs as the red verical bars from the high on Jan 19 to the low on Feb 5. This shows the next time fib of 2.618 on March 26th. I often calculate the time fibs from Solar Eclipse points which in this case would be one bar earlier on Jan 15 and would give a date of March 31st. The above are based on trading days.

Using a Gann approach and a cycle of 30 calendar days we would get a date of
April 6th which is from the Feb 5th low and is shown as the blue vertical line.

On March 25 the Sun and Moon are trine each other and both trine the antiscion point (4Sag59) of the last solar eclipse on Jan 15, 2010. The moon is almost on the ascendant at that time which is approx. 2:00pm in New York. This may mark a short term CIT.

Based on the above we are looking for a low between March 25 and April 6 for this 6 week cycle trough.

Can we get any closer?

The period around March 26 has other significant events.
March 26 is 34 tds from the Feb 5th low. Important fib number.
March 27 and 30th have Venus then Mercury squaring the Jan 15 Solar Eclipse point.
March 29 is a full moon. The full moon is in a loose sqaure to Pluto in Capricorn, however, Pluto is almost at a retrograde point, which means it is almost standing still and more powerful than usual, if that is possible.
April 6 Pluto goes retrograde.

There are of course many other Astros events going on, but from the above I am looking for a 6 week cycle trough in the SP500 around March 25, 29 or April 6th.

I'll be using technicals to try and fine tune the bottom as we approach those dates.

Of course if the markets shoot up over the highs of March 17 then all of the above is quite worthless.

Watch 1147 for important support then 1128-1130 in the SP500. A crash through either and we could be looking at a panic low forming.

The plunge protection team in the US has done such a good job of managing the markets up, I don't believe we will be looking at a panic situation.

The atached chart shows Oil. The middle pane is a detrended 20 day average. The blue vertical lines are 37 td. It can be seen the 37 td has been very consitent while Oil has been in the current range fron 70.00 - 83.00. It appears Oil is heading down for a low and trough of the 6 week cycle around March 30 /31.

Longer term cycle point to higher highs in July 2010 so this may give us a chance to get well positioned. Look at the 18 month cycle. It should be noted there is no fundamental reason Oil is priced at this range. Demand is down and supplies are up and increasing. One can only surmise there is either a war premium built in, that is a potential war with Iran or the speculators have driven Oil prices up in which case they could bring them down very quickly.

I'm looking for a short term low in Gold either Friday March 26 or Monday March 29th. March 26th is 34tds(fib) from the Feb 5th low and 17 tds from a high. I bring up Monday because we often get turns on Moon events and the Moon is at perigee and it's southward crossing on March 28 nad the full moon is on March 29. Either way, we should have a low on one of those two dates. Technically Gold does not look strong so any low forming here may see a slight rebound but Gold needs some technicals to improve. Higher highs would help.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

March 2010 6 week Cycle

As suspected the 50 week cycle trough appears to have hit Feb 5th, although we were expecting it mid March. As noted shorts should have been covered as the SP500 broke the 61.8% retracement level. It also appears a 3-4 week trading cycle hit on Feb 25th.

The dates around March 15 - 17 still appear to have some significance from an Astrological perspective. We are now in the time frame for a 5-7 week Major cycle trough. This would be the first major cycle of the 18 week primary cycle which started on Feb 5th. Therefore be aware we may have a pullback next week.

Normally we would have looked for a pull back to the 61.*% retracement level or approx. 1110 on the SP but this market has been so bullish that may be too deep a target. Watch for a turn down between March 11-17 and probably March 15-17.