Friday, October 30, 2009

Forecast SP500

The following diagram shows the forecast for the primary cycle low of mid-November 2009. It now appears the cycle crest was October 20, 2009.

The primary cycle trough is now forecast to be bewteen November 9 to November 23, 2009 and between SP500 950-1110. See the red box on the following chart.

Return on Your Money

In these difficult times it is not "the return on your money" that is important, it is "the return of your money"

I continue to look for a low in the SP500 in mid-November 2009. I also expect a rise thereafter into year and probably into 2010. I will go into detail on this cycle once the mid-November low is in place.

Next year, however, has the potential for more serious lows. The summer of 2010 in particular may be a time to protect your money, that is ensure it's return.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Forecast SP500

To follow up on previous forecasts.

PHI and SPY October 25, 2009
We got the reversal lower. We may get a bounce in the next day or so but should be headed down. Looking for a mid-November 2009 trough. See below.

Forecast from 09/27/2009
The markets were up but kept going up past our Oct 12 date. Nevertheless it would appear we have seen the top of the primary cycle (nominal 18 week cycle) and should be headed down into mid-November 2009. We may get a bounce here shortly but still looking for mid-November for the trough. This would be approx. 18 weeks from the previous primary cycle bottom (PB) of the cycle which is in the range of 15 - 23 weeks. See chart below. The blue line running through the red Nov 9-23 line is 89 trading days time 2 from the March 6, 2009 bottom. 89 being a Fibonacci number.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

PHI and SPY

Now if PHI is significant, we should be getting to a high and downturn very shortly.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Active - Heliocentric Mars

The nature of Mars is aggressive and competitive. In mythology it is the God of war. Mars can be prominent during those days in which there is an increase in international tensions, perhaps even threats of war. In the markets, volume tends to increase when Mars is present, and possibly sharp swings in price.

Mars is also the fight or flight impulse. When active relative to a trading perspective, selling is often a consequence because it will tend to scatter any previous trend or consensus.

In heliocentric centric Astrology Mars will be very active. The following will be occurring shortly.

Oct 25 Mars trine Chiron

Oct 26 Mars square Uranus

Oct 27 Mars trine Neptune

Oct 28 Mars square Saturn

Hard aspects from Mars to Uranus / Saturn can point to violence tension or geophysical stress (earthquakes or volcanic activity).

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Follow up on Crude Oil - 16 Week Cycle

The 16 week cycle in crude hit on the week of Oct. 12, 2009 as predicted. It can now be seen breaking through the 38.2% retracement level. This should be watched closely as it should either fail here or move quickly to the 50% retracement around $90.00.



This is not a conspiracy blog, however, it should be noted the Saudi's and other mid east states seem to be picking up the slack in buying US treasuries. China's purchases have been declining. Could an increasing price in crude be their reward?

The next 16 week cycle will hit around Jan 29, 2010.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Fibonacci Numbers and the Market

Without going into the history, the following outlines the basic Fibonacci series is: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89... as the sequence progresses each number is the sum of the previous two numbers (ex. 89 = 34 + 55).

Also the ratio between each successive number approaches 1.61803398...
(ex. 89 / 55 = 1.61818). This number is known as PHI and is seen in nature and ancient architecture.

Our purpose is to see how useful these numbers are in the financial markets. Use google or your library to get a history of Fibonacci and the number sequence.

The number sequence is often used in market cycle (ex. 34 or 55 trading days) or (55 or 89 trading weeks).

PHI or it's inverse is often used for price retracements and less often for time forecasts. Thus we have 1.618, .618, .382, .236 (ex. .382 * .618)

Just for interest for Astro fans,
5 heliocentric conjunctions of Earth and Venus: 5x584 days =2920 days.
8 orbits of the Earth around the Sun: 8x365.25 days = 2922 days.
13 orbits of Venus around the Sun: 13x224.7 days = 2921 days.

Examples of all these can be found below.

Following is a weekly chart for crude oil dated Oct 12, 2009.



The above chart shows a retracement range from the top July 2008 to the bottom Feb 2009. Note as price of crude oil rises it stops just short of the 38.2% retracement then goes down and bounces off the 23.6% level. Incidentally crude has just completed a 16 week cycle and is due to head upwards. If it breaks through the 38.2% level it may take off much higher. Watching this level is most important.

Following is a daily chart of the DJIA showing a 55 trading day cycle, the blue line.











Following is a daily chart for the DJIA showing PHI future extensions based on the fall from Oct 10, 2007 to March 9, 2009.


Saturday, October 3, 2009

Problems at the FED

A brief post on the potential, upcoming problems at the FED.

This is done by examining the astrological chart of the FED, when it was created, and the major transiting planets about to activate this chart.

The Federal Reserve Natal Chart used is based on the following:
Dec 23, 1913
6:02pm EST +5
Washington, DC

Summary
------------
For those not interested in the Astrology, the Fed is about to be hit with some strong astrological aspects. The two main purposes of the FED are to 1.) ensure monetary and price stability and 2.) prevent bank failures. Either of these two main purposes could be affected. A challenge to the structure or existence of the FED or a shakeup in it’s leadership could also be affected. Whatever happens it should be a dramatic change, which will not be reversed.

These are long term aspects, which may take months to materialize, however, as is often the case longer term signatures can be triggered by shorter term aspects. A list of potential trigger dates can be found at the end of this note.

A crisis is brewing and in one way or another it will affect the nations money, directly or indirectly.

It should be apparent by mid November 2009.

Astrology
------------
The major themes in this natal chart are secretive power and inflation.

On first look the themes that jump out of this chart are the Sun / Pluto opposition T squared to Midheaven, the loose Mars / Neptune conjunction rising and opposing Jupiter and the mutual reception between the Moon and Pluto.

In mundane / financial astrology the Sun stands for the core values of an organization, it’s raison d'ĂȘtre. It can also stand for it’s leader, in this case Ben Bernanke.

The Sun is the principle of life, beginnings and creation, while Pluto is the principle of death, destruction, endings and change that is not going to be reversed. The Sun / Pluto are in opposition and in a T square to Midheaven. This shows a tendency to accumulate power in hidden clandestine ways. Pluto is in the 12 house of hidden things and endings and in mutual reception with the moon (the public) which is in secretive Scorpio in the 5th house. The Sun also rules the 2nd house of resources and money.

There is no room for restraint with a Mars / Neptune Jupiter aspect. This is not a signature one would want to find in an organization responsible for a countries money, but here it is.

So what’s coming up and when?
Pluto has been conjunct the Fed’s natal Sun since sometime in 2008, depending on what orb one uses. So what’s the big deal.

Pluto will be in exact conjunction with the natal Sun on November 9 and Saturn will be squaring Pluto and thus the Fed’s natal Sun on November 15, having just arrived in the cardinal sign of Libra on October 29. Both Saturn and Pluto are slow moving planets. The Pluto Sun conjunction has been forming for months and the Saturn square for weeks.

We therefore must look for trigger planets that could set dramatic changes off. The following are possibilities.

Oct. 10 Mercury squared Pluto having just arrived in Libra.

Oct. 15 Venus squared Pluto having just arrived in Libra. Stock market slide?

Oct 18 Mars quincunx Pluto. Stock market slide?

Oct 24 Sun sextile Pluto

Oct 28 Transiting Mars opposing natal Uranus
Transiting Sun square natal Uranus
Saturn enters 4th House
Note: Natal Uranus is in the 7th house of open enemies

Oct 29 Saturn enters Libra

Nov 9 Pluto conjunct natal Sun
Venus sextile Pluto

Nov 15 Saturn squared Pluto

Nov 16 Mercury sextile Saturn

Crude Oil - 16 week Cycle

This post shows the 16 week cycle in crude oil. The next cycle is due Oct 5 - 12, 2009.



As can be seen this from previous cycles this can either be a crest or a trough. This would appear to be forming a trough, in which case crude and the stock of related companies would be good purchases once the trough is confirmed.

This chart also shows the fibonacci retracement areas from the mid-2008 highs to the early January lows. (23.6, 38.2, 50.0, 61.8).

These will be important points in many charts and will be the subject of a post in the near future.

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