Sunday, December 13, 2009

Update

Currently the SP500 continues a sideways pattern. Wednesday Dec 9, 2009 has the potential to be a 6 week, Major cycle low, however, it was not very deep and just barely broke the 25 dma. Nevertheless it was in the timeframe and the current price structure points to a possible bounce, possibly into year end for a Santa Claus rally.

The period around Dec 18/21 needs to be watched carefully, for it has a number of powerful Astros, which could affect not only stocks but commodities as well, particularly Oil and Gas.

Looking past this period and into mid January 2010 there is a configuration that has been quite repeatable. It is a 3 cycle pass of heliocentric Mercury. See the following chart. The green x’s show when heliocentric Mercury transits through Virgo. Note the middle pass. The SP500 most often rises into this period then drops quickly. Again it is only in the middle pass of Mercury in Virgo.



In addition on Jan 15, 2010 there is a Solar eclipse and Mercury direct station. Both are strong signatures for sharp moves. This in conjunction with the 3 pass heliocentric Mercury point to a period for a rising market and then a sharp decline. Bear in mind these signatures typically point to shorter term moves. The following chart shows recent events for the Mercury direct station (blue circle) and solar eclipse (sold red circle).


Tuesday, December 8, 2009

SP500 Oil Gold Update

SP500
One of the cycles I follow is the 18 week or primary cycle. For stocks it bottomed the week of Nov 2nd. We are therefore in the 5th week and I’m looking for a nominal 6 week cycle bottom. This bottom would not be crash, but a pull back to the 25 dma.

Potential dates for this bottom are:

Dec 10 – 14
Sun trines Mars On Dec 10 and the Sun squares Uranus On Dec 14. The Sun Mars trine always happens approx. 10 days before the Mars retrograde and the Sun Uranus square always occurs approx. 13 days after the Uranus direct station, thus, this period is the overlap where the Sun is hit by both forces. There are a number of other reasons for this period to represent a CIT, helio Mercury and Venus changing signs and both aspecting helio Jupiter the next day.

Dec 18 – 20
Although I originally had this period as a high, if we don’t get a trough in the Dec 10 –14 period then I’ll be looking at this period for a trough for the nominal 6 week cycle low. Dec 20 has Mars retrograde and Dec 21 the last Jupiter Neptune conjunction. If the Dec 10 –14 period is a trough then this period could be a sharp reversal higher.



Mars retrograde also has a history of fast turns in Gold as well.

Gold
The primary cycle in Gold bottomed Oct 28, 2009 and we are in the 6th week and due for the Major cycle trough. It appears this has begun. Look to the 2 dates above for potential time frames for a trough. Stocks, Gold and Oil will be governed by movement in the US$. It appears to have put in a longer term bottom but needs a couple more days above the 50 dma to confirm.










Oil

Oil is in the 21st week of the nominal 18 week primary cycle. In fact, for Oil this can range from 15-23 weeks and therefore it is due. Oil, like Gold, is headed down due to the rising US$. This should be the primary cycle and may be a little deeper than previous troughs. Approx. $70.50 would be a 50% retrace,emt of the move up from July '09. It could be deeper, but it is unfolding now. Again, look at the dates listed above for potential troughs and turn up.

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