Friday, February 26, 2010

March 2010

We are now approaching the timeframe we had identified as the ideal spot for the 50 week low. Please bear in mind Feb 5th could have been it, as it satified all our technical requirements for a 50 week low although it was quite shallow.

The following SP500chart shows the 61.8% fib retracement held firm although it appears the MACD and stochastic indicators may be curling up for another assault. If at any time 1110 is broken (and I'll give it to 1115) then I will be covering my shorts. We may go up to test the 1110 area one more time. Again we are looking for the low in the March 10-17th timeframe.









This may be another demonstration of using astrology with technical indicators. March 10th has Mars turning direct and March 17 is a Uranus shadow date. Both dates are associated with turns in the stock market. They are also associated with turns in Gold and precious metals as well. The whole month has strong astrological aspects and could be very volatile. Debt in particular (Greece, Dubai etc.) will probably in the fore front of the news. There is a long term aspect forming called a T square. It involves the slow moving planets Saturn, Uranus and Pluto. Although not exact, it will be hit by aspects from Venus, the Sun and Mercury during March 2010. The longer term aspect will become more exact during July and August of this year. This may be a very unpleasant time not only in the stock market, but other areas of life as well. This blog will stick to the stock market, however, I will say it could be a time for more geophysical activity. Get ready for a wild month in the stock market. The week of March 15th looks particularly interesting.

In addition to the Astro activity the 108 trading day cycle hits on March 8 / 9 in the SP500. The 108 trading days are identified by the red lines on the following chart.












Since we spend most of our time looking at intra-day charts but seldom publish them, the folloing is an hourly chart of SPY an etf for the SP500. Two things worthy of note. There appears to be strong resistance in the 111.00 111.50 area and there is descending broadening wedge pattern (red lines) forming. The latter tends to be bullish. Since this is an hourly chart we may see upward pressure Monday which could mean a short term top either Monday or early in the week.
















Le Corbusier
Behind the wall, the Gods play with numbers"

St. Francis of Assisi
"What everyone is looking for, is what is looking."

Neils Bohr
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."

Gold

See the following chart for Gold. The sloping red lines show a falling wedge which is typically a bullish reversal pattern. We have to see if Gold crosses back into the wedge or takes off up from here. Notice also the fib retracements from the top in early December '09 to the bottom in early February '10. Gold is trying to break out of the 38.2% retracement. 50% may act as resistance as well. These levels should be watched closely.

The vertical red lines show the 110 trading day cycle which would typically point to a low around March 9 2010. It's quite possible Gold follows the wedge line down and puts in a low around March 9th then moves up. It should be mentioned March 10th is a Mars direct date, which is often associated with reversals in the the price of Gold.













Oil












US$

The US$ has been driving everything, stocks, gold and oil. The following weekly chart shows the US$ in an uptrend with $.82 as a target which is at the 50% retracement of the move down. The US$ only being strong in relative terms with the week Euro and questionalable other currencies. If the US buck weakins, I would expect gold and the commodities to really take off.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

50 Week Low Continued....

We are still waiting for the 50 week low and are sitting on shorts. It should be pointed out we had Feb 5th as the 6th week low, however, that low satisfied all minimum requirements for a 50 week low. If short we must be most careful here.

The SP500 has shown some bullishness since the Feb 5 low. If this index breaks above 1120 and therefore also above the 61/8% retracement we will be closing short position, though not necessarily going long. It is surprising that with all the negative news, FED rates, Greece Dubai etc. etc. the market is still bullish.



Even with this somewhat bullish picture, the Astros coming up in March should be more bearish. We still like the dates around March 10 and March 17 as lows, or atleast CITs (change in trend).

During March we will have the Sun, Mercury and Venus translating the Saturn / Uranus / Pluto opposition / square. All Astros nuts should agree, this would be good timing for a low. Unfortunately it may also indicate some rather nasty (geopolitical or earth disturbances) world events.

Watch the US$ to get a position on stocks, gold and crude as well. We could see it pull back into early March which would give a surge to stocks, gold and crude.

Le Corbusier
Behind the wall, the Gods play with numbers"

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The Coming 50 Week Cycle Lows

We are in range for the 50 week cycle trough at any time. I originally had the trough for this cycle around March 10 to March 17 based on some relevant Astros. Relevant meaning they have marked cycle turns before. They are Mars direct on March 10 and the Uranus shadow date of March 17. March 17 in particular appears to be a poweful astrological date (see chart).



The actual 50 week from the March 2009 lows would be the week of February 22. February 25, 26 are good possibilities.

Recently I was reminded of another series of cycle that fall in the February 22 week. They are the 33 /66 / 132 week cycles. See the next chart, the red lines are the 66 week cycles.

So it is possible we get a trough to these cycle in late February. Nevertheless I am expecting some dramatic events around the period of March 10-17, emphasis on March 17, and it could still be the cycle lows. At any event, watch the charts closely for a turn as I suspect the markets will rocket out of the coming low.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

SP500 Update Feb 5, 2010

To up the SP500 cycles it appears the 6 week now bottomed on Feb 5. This appears to be a strong Doji signal and we are expecting a short term upswing next week.

It should be noted we are taking the position of shorting all rallies from here. Good spots would be the 38.2% retracement at 1085 and the 50% retracement at 1097.7. These retracements are from the recent top and thus short term targets.

We are expecting the down move is still in force and will be looking for continued downside action around Feb 16 -17. There are always many Astro signatures, the following are of note during this time frame:
Feb 11 Venus enters Pisces
Feb 12 New Moon (has been a good marker for s/t highs recently)
Feb 13 Mercury Trine Saturn
Feb 14 Sun conjunct Neptune (good history of marking CITs)

Any short term rallies should only last 1-3 days.

We are looking for something dramatic in mid March 2010, that is bewteen March 10-17.
This is the timeframe for the 50 week cycle trough. This is one we do not want to miss as we expect the market to rocket up at the 50 week cycle low.
The relevant Astros possiblt marking the bottom are:

March 10 Mars direct
March 15 New moon very close to Uranus
March 17 Sun conjunct Uranus and Uranus shadow date from it's last retrograde period. This is also the week where Saturn is 1/2 the way through it's retrograde cycle.



For those following gold or currencies heliocentric mercury enters Sagittarius today. Helio centric Mercury will also be squaring both Venus and Jupiter on Feb 9. I am expecting great volatility in currencies and precious metals next week.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

SP500 Update Feb 3, 2010

To update the SP500 cycles it appears the 6 week cycle bottomed on Jan 29. We are therefore into the 3rd 6 week cycle of the 18 week cycle and what should be the 50 week cycle as well. We have bounced since the last trough and are almost on the 38.2% retracement. I suspect we will bounce up to the 50 - 61.8% area or 1111 - 1120 and that would be the crest of the current 6 week cycle.

Time wise Feb 12 - Feb 15 would be a good fit as we have a new moon on Feb 12 and the Sun conjunct Neptune on Feb 14. Feb 16 has Venus conjunct Jupiter. The latter 2 signatures have a good history of CITs (change in trend).



After the crest of the 6 week we should be heading down into the 18 week and 50 week cycle troughs. A good indicator would be the Mars direct date around March 10 +- a few.

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