- Our second half 2016
forecast dates are available
- Subscriptions include the forecast dates and a monthly Market letter with eMail alerts for imminent trading opportunities
- We do not use negative option billing nor do we sell email addresses
- Subscriptions include the forecast dates and a monthly Market letter with eMail alerts for imminent trading opportunities
- We do not use negative option billing nor do we sell email addresses
Our posts are now reported on the
highly regarded FXStreet.com.
The next 1/2 year Forecast Dates are available
for purchase.
(January,
1 2017 - June 30, 2017)
Subscribers
receive 6 months forecast no matter when they sign up.
SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise November 4th was the Primary cycle trough. 1 which
puts us entering the 23rd week of a nominal
18 week cycle. November 4th was the 40
week cycle trough as well.
It should be noted Primary cycles (18 weeks) most often
start with a nominal 6 week sub-cycle. The 2nd most common start is a 1/2 Primary or
9 week sub-cycles. The nominal range for
the Primary cycle is 13 to 21 weeks. Currently the high of this cycle was
on March 1st closing at 2396 in the
SP500. This high is very late in the cycle. It is very right translated which
by itself would be bullish.
This cycle is so late I expect the cycle to expand, probably into the 22 – 23+ weeks
area possibly longer. The US markets appear negative. I’m short
going into next week. We should be looking for a possible Primary cycle trough
over the next few weeks though next week may be very difficult.
With the upcoming Astrological activity, I expect the
markets to be volatile over the next few weeks and moving down into that
trough. The last 2 months have been unusual and very difficult to forecast. Note, we could see a turn next week with Venus going direct on April 15th.
To summarize, there was a tremendous move up from November
4, 2016. It went sideways starting in early December then up again near the Jupiter retrograde on February 6th. The
US markets are very overvalued at this time.
From here the markets hit the Sun conjunct Neptune transit, the Jupiter opposition Uranus and Venus
retrograde. These three, hitting aspects at least stopped the move up and the index has been trending down since the
March 1st high. I have been expecting a sharper, deeper move
down than we have seen so far.
Note the 15 (red) and 45 day (blue) sma’s. The 15 day sma
has crossed the 45 day and is pointed down. I’m waiting to see the 45 day sma
to turn down as well.
The look back for the 15 day sma is going to drop some
higher values which by itself would mean the 15 day should move lower.
The look back of the 45 day sma gets us back to the early
February area. Taking out the lower values out would mean, by itself, a move
higher in the 45 day sma.
Having the 15 day lower than the 45 day is something we look
for near a Primary cycle trough. I’m expecting more price action to the
down-side
April is filled with powerful Astrological aspects and
events. Don’t discount the aspects of the larger planets. They can cover longer
periods of time. For example, 2 weeks ago we had Saturn going retrograde. This can last
for a number of weeks and is a period of review, taking stock, restriction,
fear and correct recent mistakes. The Sun always trines Saturn approx. 11 cd’s,
(calendar days) after Saturn turns retrograde. This is April 17th.
This is a month of retrogrades. The following planets turn
retrograde or direct this month; Saturn retrograde, Mercury retrograde, Venus
direct and Pluto retrograde. See last weeks blog.
Next week, starting on Saturday:
April 14 Sun conjunct
Uranus
The Sun and Uranus are volatile.
This could be a signature for sudden reversals in the trend of the markets.
Last week we covered sidereal Uranus and it’s 42 year cycle. The Sun will
conjunct Uranus very close to that position in the sidereal Zodiac. For those
with interest I used the Lahiri zodiac.
April 15 Venus
direct.
This signature is often found at market
turns. Again, Venus is money among other things.
April 17 Sun trine
Saturn
As noted above this always takes place
approx.. 11 days after Saturn turns retrograde. This can extend the
restrictive, fearful period. In this case Mars was in waxing trine to Pluto
(war planets) when Saturn turned
retrograde.
April 19 Sun enters
Taurus
In this case the Sun will emphasize
the “Economy”, or the truth about the economy. These events and aspects cover
the world economy, which, by most measures is overvalued.
April 20 Pluto turns
Retrograde
Pluto turning retrograde, surprisingly
does not have a strong effect on the US economy. Pluto does rule debt however,
and debt is a problem globally. Watch for issues of debt over the next few
weeks. I’m watching Europe closely on this issue and in particular Greek and
Italion banks but there could be many banks involved once there is a failure.
Debt was a big problem in the 2009 market, marked at a low on March 6, 2009. Today there is more debt for all levels of government, public and private pensions, company debt and personal debt.
Debt was a big problem in the 2009 market, marked at a low on March 6, 2009. Today there is more debt for all levels of government, public and private pensions, company debt and personal debt.
April 21 Venus square
Saturn
Due to retrograde motion this is
the second Venus / Saturn square in two weeks. It has a strong association with
Primary cycles but needs a wide orb. We are in the time frame for a Primary
cycle trough which is now late.
April 21 Sun trine
North Node
One thing I have not mentioned is a
market theory developed in the 1930’s by Louise McWhirter. The basics of the theory
are spelled out in her 1930’s book, Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting.
The basics are this. The trend in
business volume has been found to correspond with the cycle of the North Node
which has a cycle length of 18.7 years. The North Node moves backwards through
the signs in relation to the other planets.
The high point of business volume
is reached when the North Node transits
through Leo. The low point of business volume occurs when the North Node
transits through Aquarius. The last transit of the North Node through Aquarius
was Dec 2007 through August 2009. The low came in at March 6, 2009.
The North Node enters Leo in early
May 2017. It does not necessarily start immediately. The North Node will be in
Leo for approx. 1.5 years.
April 21 Mars enters
Gemini a mutable, air sign
To answer a subscriber’s request.
Mars governs the military, soldiers, military and naval men /
events. War, terrorist attacks, industrial disputes, strikes and conflicts.
Opposition forces. Fire and fire services. Mars
rising on the eastern horizon is aggressive and warlike.
With Mars in a mutable sign
(Gemini) Mars is combative but Mars is
scattered and unfocused in Gemini and possibly not thinking and communicating
coherently. Look for strife and war like activity.
There are others later in the month but that’s the coming
week.
Venus
The following chart shows Venus retrograde, the Inferior
conjunctions of Venus and the Sun and Venus
going direct coming up on April 15th. Read the last couple of
blog post for more info on Venus retrograde.
The Venus Direct signature often occurs at a move in the
SP500 both up and down. I’ll be looking for a move down. It is the blue arrow
on the chart.
Mercury
The other planet inside the Earth’s orbit is Mercury. It too
has inferior and superior conjunctions. On the chart the red arrow is Mercury
turning retrograde, then the Inferior conjunction of the Sun and Mercury and
then the blue arrow which means returning to direct motion. Mercury can be a
very confusing time.
From last week watch Sidereal Uranus as it will have a wide
orb and could affect the markets or a world event at any time.
All the longer term Astrological aspects and events still
apply. See previous blog posts.
Watch for potential geophysical events, violent weather or
increased conflict. Mars is the planet of war, conflict and aggression. We had
noted this last week and we got the USA bombing
Syria on April 6th
the same day Mars trined Pluto. A war aspect. We also had the use of a
MOAB bomb and potential crisis brewing in North Korea. From other sources,
there may be an event or issue with water in the USA. This summer may see
increased geophysical activity, particularly around the Solar eclipse.
As mentioned in previous weeks both Israel and Egypt (mid-East) may come to the fore this year as
regards to conflict and aggression. Iran
and Turkey may be included as well. This may be seen before the end of
April. This is connected to the on-going Saturn
/ Uranus trine, a 45 year aspect which is exact again on May 19th.
Mars is active and can result in war or conflict. The US should stay
out of any conflicts as they should concentrate on growing health and legal
problems at home. If the US does get involved it could result in many
casualties. At this point watch Syria and North Korea. Coming up, can Iran be
kept off center stage?
24Harmonic
I continue to watch the 24th
harmonic cycle (360 / 24) cycles for short term turns. The brown squares are
Sun / Saturn 15 degrees on the following daily chart.
The last hit was on March 31
The next hits are April 17th then May 2nd.
I have added 3 price lines to this
chart.
Saturn - black
Uranus - purple
These price lines can act as
support / resistance. Also on this chart are blue vertical line which is the 24 cd (calendar day) cycle. It has
been at highs and lows.
The date of March 1st is the same
date as the 24 Harmonic. We went down.
Looking forward I'm expecting
difficult markets through April time frame.
With the bombing in Syria after the use of chemicals against women and children we should remember the problems in Syria were related to gas pipelines. Assad had refused a natural gas pipeline proposal from Qatar backed by Saudi Arabia. This pipeline would have gone through Syria and into Turkey. This could go through to Europe and therefore negatively effect Russia's near monopoly on natural gas to Europe. Instead Assad chose another option, which was a pipeline from Iran, Iraq and Syria. The overthrow of Assad would clear the way for the Qatar pipeline. The USA for their part were supporting the Syrian rebels, indirectly supporting the the Qatar alternative and siding with the US ally Saudi Arabia. Of course we have the Sunni / Shiite differences behind all this activity.
With the bombing in Syria after the use of chemicals against women and children we should remember the problems in Syria were related to gas pipelines. Assad had refused a natural gas pipeline proposal from Qatar backed by Saudi Arabia. This pipeline would have gone through Syria and into Turkey. This could go through to Europe and therefore negatively effect Russia's near monopoly on natural gas to Europe. Instead Assad chose another option, which was a pipeline from Iran, Iraq and Syria. The overthrow of Assad would clear the way for the Qatar pipeline. The USA for their part were supporting the Syrian rebels, indirectly supporting the the Qatar alternative and siding with the US ally Saudi Arabia. Of course we have the Sunni / Shiite differences behind all this activity.
Gold
December 15 should have been the
Gold low we have been looking for. This puts us in the 18th week of the nominal 18 week cycle. Since December 15th Gold has
been trending up showing three crests of higher highs and higher lows. This is
bullish. Gold showed a Doji on the close on March 10th. This is often a turn
signal. It stalled for a couple of days and then went up, currently at 1288.50.
Price is now above the 15 and 45
day sma with the 15 day curling up. Gold appears to be
Starting a new Primary cycle, NOT
confirmed. It possibly had a very short Primary which ended on March 10th.
For now, I’ll leave this at week 18 of an older Gold Primary cycle.
I had been looking for a pullback
in precious metals followed by a stronger and sustained move up which could go
on for a few months.
A pull back now may turn out to be
a great entry point. Watch closely over the next couple of weeks.
Gold would benefit if the Debt
Ceiling was covered by increasing the money supply and hence, inflation may be
seen.
Gold like many markets will be
affected by the Astrological aspects for April.
Following is a daily Gold chart with the arrows identifying
retrograde and direct dates and the Inferior and Superior
Sun / Venus conjunctions. We had the
Venus Retrograde date on March 4th
then March 25 for the Inferior
conjunction and April 15 has
Venus turning direct again. Any of
these 3 dates could be a turn in Gold. I was looking for a move down near the Venus retrograde date of March 4th +- 3 tds
which we got. We may see a move down near the Venus Direct date, April 15. Bear in mind there is also a Mercury
retrograde period coming up this month. Gold often moves based on Mercury
retrograde / direct dates.
And Mercury turns retrograde on
April 9th. This may indicate a turn in Gold. I’m looking for Gold to
pullback into a Primary cycle trough. Once complete precious metals should be
the place to be. The inferior conjunction is April 20th and the blue
arrow is Mercury turning direct on May 3rd. We may see resistance in
the 1298 area.
The next chart is a longer term
monthly chart showing the 7.4 year cycle in Gold. They are the red vertical
lines. Note that the 7.4 year cycle put in a low in late 2015. We are now in a
pull back but we are very early in the 7.4 year cycle which should be bullish
in the long term.
Crude
March 22 was the start of a
new Primary cycle. This would put us in either the 4th week or the 22nd week of the Primary cycle.
Price is now above the 15 day sma and
the 45 day sma.and the 15 day sma is rising just below the 45 day sma. This is
what we like to see near the start of a Primary cycle.
The blue horizontal lines are the average longitudes of the planets
Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto converted to price. They should act
as good support / resistance areas. That blue line currently above price is at 53.18
and I'm looking for this area to be strong resistance.
I'm watching
all aspects to Jupiter or Neptune,
the two rulers of crude. As one reader pointed out this should include both
geocentric and heliocentric aspects.
Following is a daily chart of crude
showing the price lines for the Sun
(green) and Pluto (black). Note that move up stopped at the Pluto price
line and closed just above the Sun (green) price line.
"What
everyone is looking for, is what is looking."
-- St. Francis ofAssisi
-- St. Francis of
No comments:
Post a Comment