Predictions are difficult – especially about the future. Nevertheless we need a plan as we approach a new trading year. Just remember plans change, sometimes very quickly.
Also remember all the financial experts, which give you firm unequivocal assurance that a stock, ETF or fund will be a great investment in 1, 3 or 5 years typically can’t tell you where the markets will be tomorrow. Why do they want your money? Do they just want to honestly help you or are they going to make money off your money? The answer is obvious.
As we start a new decade also remember a dollar invested in the broad market in 1999 lost money. Long term investing has failed in the last 10 years. Time in the market has made the investor a loser. Market timers, on the other hand have made money. Giving your money to someone else to manage is the easy route. Investing for yourself is difficult business. YOU have to do the work. The message of this site is "Do the Work". You'll have no one to blame but yourself.
This should be an extremely volatile year. I’m looking for lows around March and August. We should also get extreme highs, more on these as the year progresses and the fullness of time make things clearer.
By the end of the year we should be able to look back and see that debt, as in non-payment of debt, was the major financial theme. This theme may be disguised during the year as the FED and other central banks continue to flood the markets and economy with money to stave off the deflationary pressures. Eventually this will fail and deflation will take hold or their massive monetary manipulation will be successful and inflation will be on the horizon. Under either scenario precious metals should be the investment vehicle with the best capital protection. Capital protection should be primary goal of all investors in 2010 and probably 2011 as well.
As we progress in the year we will issue more detailed forecasts, typically for each month. For January I am looking for a CIT (change in trend) in stocks in the January 13-15 timeframe. This may very will be a crest to the 6 week cycle, although it could equally be a trough, but a CIT nevertheless. Let’s see how this unfolds before being so bold as to divine further forecasts.
In January Oil could make a short term high in the first week of the year. Forecasting Gold may have to wait until we determine whether the last high was the high of the current primary cycle, in which case it is very left translated and therefore very bearish in the intermediate term.
We may also be looking at a year fraught with geopolitical tension and significant earthquake and volcanic activity. Massive changes will also be a theme.
St. Francis of Assisi
"What everyone is looking for, is what is looking."
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Update
Currently the SP500 continues a sideways pattern. Wednesday Dec 9, 2009 has the potential to be a 6 week, Major cycle low, however, it was not very deep and just barely broke the 25 dma. Nevertheless it was in the timeframe and the current price structure points to a possible bounce, possibly into year end for a Santa Claus rally.
The period around Dec 18/21 needs to be watched carefully, for it has a number of powerful Astros, which could affect not only stocks but commodities as well, particularly Oil and Gas.
Looking past this period and into mid January 2010 there is a configuration that has been quite repeatable. It is a 3 cycle pass of heliocentric Mercury. See the following chart. The green x’s show when heliocentric Mercury transits through Virgo. Note the middle pass. The SP500 most often rises into this period then drops quickly. Again it is only in the middle pass of Mercury in Virgo.
In addition on Jan 15, 2010 there is a Solar eclipse and Mercury direct station. Both are strong signatures for sharp moves. This in conjunction with the 3 pass heliocentric Mercury point to a period for a rising market and then a sharp decline. Bear in mind these signatures typically point to shorter term moves. The following chart shows recent events for the Mercury direct station (blue circle) and solar eclipse (sold red circle).
The period around Dec 18/21 needs to be watched carefully, for it has a number of powerful Astros, which could affect not only stocks but commodities as well, particularly Oil and Gas.
Looking past this period and into mid January 2010 there is a configuration that has been quite repeatable. It is a 3 cycle pass of heliocentric Mercury. See the following chart. The green x’s show when heliocentric Mercury transits through Virgo. Note the middle pass. The SP500 most often rises into this period then drops quickly. Again it is only in the middle pass of Mercury in Virgo.
In addition on Jan 15, 2010 there is a Solar eclipse and Mercury direct station. Both are strong signatures for sharp moves. This in conjunction with the 3 pass heliocentric Mercury point to a period for a rising market and then a sharp decline. Bear in mind these signatures typically point to shorter term moves. The following chart shows recent events for the Mercury direct station (blue circle) and solar eclipse (sold red circle).
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
SP500 Oil Gold Update
SP500
One of the cycles I follow is the 18 week or primary cycle. For stocks it bottomed the week of Nov 2nd. We are therefore in the 5th week and I’m looking for a nominal 6 week cycle bottom. This bottom would not be crash, but a pull back to the 25 dma.
Potential dates for this bottom are:
Dec 10 – 14
Sun trines Mars On Dec 10 and the Sun squares Uranus On Dec 14. The Sun Mars trine always happens approx. 10 days before the Mars retrograde and the Sun Uranus square always occurs approx. 13 days after the Uranus direct station, thus, this period is the overlap where the Sun is hit by both forces. There are a number of other reasons for this period to represent a CIT, helio Mercury and Venus changing signs and both aspecting helio Jupiter the next day.
Dec 18 – 20
Although I originally had this period as a high, if we don’t get a trough in the Dec 10 –14 period then I’ll be looking at this period for a trough for the nominal 6 week cycle low. Dec 20 has Mars retrograde and Dec 21 the last Jupiter Neptune conjunction. If the Dec 10 –14 period is a trough then this period could be a sharp reversal higher.
Mars retrograde also has a history of fast turns in Gold as well.
Gold
The primary cycle in Gold bottomed Oct 28, 2009 and we are in the 6th week and due for the Major cycle trough. It appears this has begun. Look to the 2 dates above for potential time frames for a trough. Stocks, Gold and Oil will be governed by movement in the US$. It appears to have put in a longer term bottom but needs a couple more days above the 50 dma to confirm.
Oil
Oil is in the 21st week of the nominal 18 week primary cycle. In fact, for Oil this can range from 15-23 weeks and therefore it is due. Oil, like Gold, is headed down due to the rising US$. This should be the primary cycle and may be a little deeper than previous troughs. Approx. $70.50 would be a 50% retrace,emt of the move up from July '09. It could be deeper, but it is unfolding now. Again, look at the dates listed above for potential troughs and turn up.
One of the cycles I follow is the 18 week or primary cycle. For stocks it bottomed the week of Nov 2nd. We are therefore in the 5th week and I’m looking for a nominal 6 week cycle bottom. This bottom would not be crash, but a pull back to the 25 dma.
Potential dates for this bottom are:
Dec 10 – 14
Sun trines Mars On Dec 10 and the Sun squares Uranus On Dec 14. The Sun Mars trine always happens approx. 10 days before the Mars retrograde and the Sun Uranus square always occurs approx. 13 days after the Uranus direct station, thus, this period is the overlap where the Sun is hit by both forces. There are a number of other reasons for this period to represent a CIT, helio Mercury and Venus changing signs and both aspecting helio Jupiter the next day.
Dec 18 – 20
Although I originally had this period as a high, if we don’t get a trough in the Dec 10 –14 period then I’ll be looking at this period for a trough for the nominal 6 week cycle low. Dec 20 has Mars retrograde and Dec 21 the last Jupiter Neptune conjunction. If the Dec 10 –14 period is a trough then this period could be a sharp reversal higher.
Mars retrograde also has a history of fast turns in Gold as well.
Gold
The primary cycle in Gold bottomed Oct 28, 2009 and we are in the 6th week and due for the Major cycle trough. It appears this has begun. Look to the 2 dates above for potential time frames for a trough. Stocks, Gold and Oil will be governed by movement in the US$. It appears to have put in a longer term bottom but needs a couple more days above the 50 dma to confirm.
Oil
Oil is in the 21st week of the nominal 18 week primary cycle. In fact, for Oil this can range from 15-23 weeks and therefore it is due. Oil, like Gold, is headed down due to the rising US$. This should be the primary cycle and may be a little deeper than previous troughs. Approx. $70.50 would be a 50% retrace,emt of the move up from July '09. It could be deeper, but it is unfolding now. Again, look at the dates listed above for potential troughs and turn up.
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