Jan 23, 2012

SP

On a longer term basis we are near the North Node price line. This has acted as strong resistance for more than a decade other than a brief period in 2007. See the following weekly chart of the SP500 with the North Node price superimposed. This is currently in the 1330 – 1335 area but we could turn before those numbers are reached. This could also be breached but can be viewed as long term resistance as long as we don't get a sustained period of inflation in which case charts should be viewed on an inflation adjusted basis.

On a shorter term basis we are in the time frame for a crest in the primary cycle for the SP500. We are entering the 16 week of a nominal 18 week cycle which has had a range of 15-23 weeks. We should be seeing a crest in the next few days as the effect of the Sun waxing square to Saturn, Sun waning square to Jupiter and Mars retrograde take effect. We've also had the Sun and the Moon changing signs and a new moon. One of our basic premises is when there are a lot of changes above, look for changes in trend or significant events in the markets.

Currently looking for the next and last major cycle crest (MT) in the primary. See the following daily chart of the SP500. I’m waiting for a turn in 2 of my favourite indicators Blau’s True Strength Index (TSI) and Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI).

This is a very busy week with the FOMC meeting, continuing discussion in Europe re: Greece and debt, Obama speaking and earnings announcements. Any of which can move the markets either way.

Coming up we have the Sun on the antiscia of the powerful Nov 25, 2011 solar eclipse. This can produce results close to the day. [JAN 26 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ERROR. The author made an error in the calculation. The Sun is not on the antiscia of the Nov 25, 2011 solar eclipse on Jan 27, 2012. Please ignore]. The following comments continue to be applicable.

I'm looking for a short term pull back in the next couple of days then up into February where we will get a high for the year or we wait until around the March 13 date mentioned in a previous post.

A couple of others I’ll be watching are;

the Put / Call ratio which just dipped below .80 which often results in a quick rise and pullback in the SP

And the VIX which has just hit the lower Bollinger band. Watching for a reversal, quick pullback and then a sharp rise which would of course equate to a fall in the SP.

Gold and Silver

The following 2 daily charts show Gold and Silver with heliocentric Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Both now appear to be running up the Venus price line but both meet in the Jan 26,27 area. Where the Venus and Jupiter price lines have met in the past often starts a sharp move in either direction. The move does not have to wait until Jan 26,27 to start. Watch closely now. The current question is, was the low on December 29 an important longer term low in precious metals or simply another lower low which will soon be taken out. I believe the action later this week will answer that question. If the PM's take off from here this would be very bullish. Obviously a sharp move down potentially taking out the Dec 29 low quite bearish. Not long to wait. I'm also looking at a 144 td cycle in Gold on Jan 26.

2012 Critical Dates

In followup to my post of December 11, 2011 and the 2nd year of the decade low cycle.

Following are significant trend change dates, some of which will turn out to be critical lows, if not exactly on the date, at least close by. I continue to believe the high of the year will be in prior to March 13th for the SP500.

The critical dates follow;

March 13
June 25
August 15
November 23

As we approach these dates there will be other planets which may make aspects to the critical planets involved in the above dates. We will alert readers when this is about to occur and the significance.

On a somewhat related manner early March may be a critical time frame for crude. March 13 has a grand trine in earth signs including Mars, Jupiter, Pluto and Venus. Venus is conjunct Jupiter. As Jupiter is a co-ruler of crude and Pluto rules things from the ground, crude may become a more major issue.

In addition two market cycle, the 16 week and 24 week cycles for crude match up in early March. See the following chart. The blue lines are the 24 week cycle, the red lines the 16 week and the green lines where they meet (blue + red = green). The next cycle for both is the week of March 5-9.











The grand trine could be pointing at other issues as well. Pluto rules debt, money, Venus is the other money planet and Jupiter rules banks. This could be another period of debt issues / banking problems. Whatever happens it should be a significant time period

Longer Term Cycles

Beyond the astrological cycles the market itself appears to follow distinct long and shorter term cycles.

The following monthly logarithmic chart of the DJIA shows an approximate 17.6 year cycle with alternating up and down segments. Down means the end value will be lower than the starting value.

The current segment which started in 2000 ends approx. 2017 and should be lower than the 2000 start.

As noted on the chart this cycle appears more powerful when put on an inflation adjusted chart.












A long term astrological cycle will be hitting in the June / July timeframe. That is the waxing square of Uranus and Pluto and will be with us until 2015 with 7 direct hits due to retrograde motion.