Summary
We did not get the expected
volatility last week but Mars is still quite active this coming week so we
could see the expected volatility then. The Uranus / Pluto waxing square
continues to tighten and is exact on Dec 15th. This is the 6th exact square in the current series of 7
exact squares. Look for continued unrest in many countries, people vs their
leaders and the Russia vs
the Western World (Russia vs
the U.S. )
confrontation.
Using Astrology and market cycles
we continually look for dates that will start changes in trend. We are
expecting a change in trend for the broad market indices at two specific dates
over the next couple of weeks. In addition note the Sun waxing square to Jupiter on Nov 13th on the following chart and notes below.
I'm looking for a change in trend
in many markets this coming week. We could get a high in this time frame and
then down. Another option is a high closer to Dec 15th when the Uranus / Pluto
waxing square is exact.
I'm short the SP500 from last week, but not
aggressively so. Remember the dates below and the dates from last week are +- 3 td's (trading days). They are still in orb.
Precious metals may have just put in a Primary cycle bottom and Crude is due to bottom in the next few weeks if it hasn't already done so.
SP500
We are entering either the
15th week of the nominal 18 week cycle 1
(nominal 18 week) which started on Aug 7th or the 5th week,
with Oct 15th being the low of a
shortened nominal 18 week cycle and a 50 week cycle low. I'll wait until next
week to determine if we are in the 5th week of a new 18 week cycle. Either way,
5th or 15th we are due for a turn down.
The problem with Oct 15th being a nominal 18 week low is the
cycle was only 10 weeks long, weel out of the range for valid cycles. Also the previous cycle was a very extended 27 weeks
making this somewhat useless to use as a trading tool. It could be argued the
short 10 week cycle makes up for the previous, extended cycle of 27 weeks. We note
both on the following daily chart of the SP500.
It can also be argued market cycles are off due to the constant manipulation. Possible, but we have no control over this situation. History does tell us, if the markets are being manipulated there will be a day of reckoning. If so it won't be pretty.
Last week we did not get the expected volatility. Note the orange square on Nov 13th. This is the Sun
in waxing square to Jupiter an aspect which has a strong history of changes
in trend +- approx 1 week either side.
This weeks subscriber letter includes charts of many of the world's
markets specifically showing some US indices at all time highs. The
rest of the world does not look so good.
Historically we are entering the strong period of the year
for the markets. We also have the reaction to the mid-term elections in the US . It was
pointed out to me this is typically very positive when there is a democratic
president. This is based on averages but we should be aware of market
tendencies to move in one direction or the other.
Other Astrological events coming up are:
Nov 16 Neptune
turns direct - confusion, change, illusion / delusion ( Neptune
is in Pisces, the sign it rules and is stronger than usual. This is long term
and is coloring a period of history rather than anything short term)
Venus
enters Sagittarius - a mutable fire sign where change is expected.
Nov 18 Mars
square the North Node
Sun
conjunct Saturn
Moon
opposition Uranus ( this one has been very active the past few months)
Nov 20 Venus square Neptune
( highlights change, with Venus it could involve money)
Mars comes
back in from "Out of Bounds" by declination
Nov 22 Mars
crosses the heliocentric Nodes of Pluto ( volatility in the days around this
aspect)
Although Ebola has disappeared from the news, we may be
hearing more about Ebola over the next few weeks. I can't find anything tying
this signature to the USA .
It's a world problem. Hitler's Germany
controlled the news outlets as well. Enough said on that one? Maybe more should
be said.
Early in the New Year Pluto oppose the
Gold
Gold appears to have put in a trough on Nov 7th. This would put us in the
2nd week of it's Primary cycle 1
(nominal 18 week).
It has been difficult forecasting many of the commodities
due to possible deflationary forces, wild currency moves and market
manipulation. Even if it is the 2nd week of a new Primary cycle, which is
typically bullish, it could turn back down quickly.
The start of a new Primary cycle often has a pullback 2 to 4
weeks after the trough. For those that are not long this gives a second
opportunity to get long. This is particularly useful when we have a pullback in
the first 2-4 weeks and then you see a turn up. Watch the Fib retracement
levels on the following daily chart for Gold. Be particularly careful trading
Gold here as the central banks (Western World) do not want people putting their
money in precious metals. China
and Russia
appear to be buying as much as they can.
Subscribers got a more detailed review of the longer term
Gold aspects detailing an 8.5 year, 4.25 year and 17 month cycles.
The following weekly chart shows the heliocentric Venus
(green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Both have acted as support/resistance
for Gold in the past as seen on the following daily chart. Watch for Gold to
follow the Venus price line up and then cross above the Jupiter price line
currently in the 1211 area.
Silver also appears
to be in the 2nd week of it's Primary cycle cycle 1
on
Nov 7th. Like Gold, Silver appears to have bottomed and now
turning up. Also like Gold watch for a pullback 2-4 weeks along that then turns
up. The same comment on central banks applies to Silver as it does to Gold.
The following chart shows
the heliocentric Venus (green) and Jupiter(blue) price lines on a daily chart
for Silver. The trend often changes when these two price lines cross. If this
is a new Primary cycle I would expect Silver to rise and follow the Venus price
line up.
Crude
We are either in the 1st
week of a new Primary 1 cycle or the 28th week of a very over extended market. The last cycle was
left translated which is bearish. If this is a new cycle forming watch for it
to be left translated as well. There is a lot of deflationary pressure on many
commodities, precious metals included.
There are many reason, US and Saudi intentionally over
producing to drive out high cost producers and hurt Russia ,
ISIS and Iran .
This plan seems to be working but there are always unforeseen repercussions.
Western governments collect a lot of tax revenue from the price at the pump. If
it is down the government revenues are down. Crude may be reflecting the real
world economy. When crude does turn up it will probably be to lower highs. This
is also causing problems between mid-East governments.
For crude I'm watching the 23.6% retracement level on the
following daily chart. Crude seems to have entered a consolidation area.
Perhaps this is the agreed price between the US
and Saudi Arabia .
I'm looking for a trigger for crude. Aspects to Jupiter or
Neptune, the rulers of crude would be good candidates. Possible candidates are:
Nov 17 Neptune stationary direct on Sunday Nov 16
Nov 27 Sun square
Neptune
Dec 9 Jupiter
stationary retrograde.
Somewhere between the Nov 17, Neptune
direct and Dec 9th, Jupiter retrograde should see a reversal in crude or a
change in one of the issues involving crude.
On a longer term basis there is a 38-39 month cycle in crude, many commodities and the US $. The longer
term cycles need a wider orb. This cycle could trough out from now to early
November. It could also be this week. The following weekly chart shows the
38/39 month cycle in crude. There are sub-cycles. I'm looking at April 2015 for
the next high. It will probably be a lower high.
There is also an interesting 16 x 24 week cycle. When they
both match (green line) the 16 week (red) and the 24 week (blue) both hit at
the same time. This is very often a change in trend.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
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