Saturday, November 29, 2014

Financial Astrology - Dec 1, 2014

We have been looking for a turn in the US market indices for the past two weeks. Cycle-wise we are at either the 7th week of a Primary  1  cycle or the 17th week of an older cycle. Either way we are due for a turn down into either the nominal 6 week low or down into the nominal 18 week cycle low.

Virtually any momentum indicator based on broad market indices are overbought on a daily basis and getting overbought on a weekly basis. These indices are the SP500, DJIA and Nasdaq 100. Also watching the Russell 2000 and the NYSE. The latter two often turn earlier.

History points to the days around Thanksgiving being generally positive for the US markets as is this time of year, nevertheless, I'm looking for a pullback in the general US market indices. We are about to enter more challenging times as the Uranus / Pluto waxing square is exact for the 6th time on Dec 15th.

I'm continuing to look for a pullback and leaning towards this week, particularly around Dec 4th to start a turn down.

As a general statement going forward. For the past couple of years I have been forecasting troughs and crests in the general market indices. There has been no mention of market crashes or more dire events. The strength of the market has been impressive although it may have been manipulated up in the US and other markets, ex. Japan.

For 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 we'll be looking to call a more severe market turn and possible crash. At this point I'm assuming some external event will cause the fall but this could change as we move forward. I suspect the US$ will be involved. Also from my preliminary review of 2015 there appears to be additional war aspects and I would say we won't have a lot of time to wait, 1st quarter. I'm assuming this is in addition to the conflicts going on or a dramatic increase in existing hostilities.

On Gold, the recent move down could be the 2 to 4 week pullback often seen at the start of a new cycle. Gold is going in to the 4th week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. Critical areas are 1160, 1147 and 1130. I'm watching for bounces off the first two but if Gold goes below 1130 on good volume it should be time to get out. For now I'm looking for a bounce in Gold.

From last weeks post on Crude:
"Somewhere between the Nov 17, Neptune direct and Dec 9th, Jupiter retrograde should see a reversal in crude or a change in one of the issues involving crude."

Well, crude got a sharp move and issues involving crude changed, specifically, OPEC and all countries associated with the supply side.

The question now, is this a shorter term move or a more permanent change in crude pricing going forward? Watch the period around Dec 8th.


We are entering either the 7th week of the nominal 18 week cycle  1 (nominal 18 week) which started on Oct. 15th or the 17th week of a cycle which started on
Aug 7th.

This is looking more like a Primary cycle bottom on Oct 15th and therefore, cycle wise, we should be looking for a pullback into the nominal 6 week cycle trough. If the cycle started on Aug 7th we should be looking for a crest and move down into the nominal 18 week cycle low. We have been waiting for a turn down for a couple of weeks.

Historically we are entering the strong period of the year for the markets. We also have the reaction to the mid-term elections in the US. It was pointed out to me this is typically very positive when there is a democratic president. This is based on averages but we should be aware of market tendencies to move in one direction or the other. In addition years ending in 5, like 2015 have a history of being positive in the markets (i.e. they finish higher than where they opened).

Astrological events coming up are:

Mars will be leaving Capricorn this week. Mars is exalted in Capricorn, where it operates with the greatest strength. This coupled with the forming Uranus / Pluto waxing square have lead to numerous violent events both from warring parties in the mid-East, the US and other locales.

The next date and 6th event of the exact square of Uranus and Pluto is on Dec 15th.
It should be mentioned the first 5 of the recent exact squares have most often occurred near short term market crests and then down. I believe it was either Bill Meridian or Charles Jayne who said, that the final aspect in a series strikes the telling blow. I've found in a series like the 7 aspects of Uranus square Pluto, if nothing much has happened, one of the last few exact aspects is emphasized. In this case it would be one of the remaining squares on Dec 15, 2014 or March 16, 2015.

This daily chart of the SP500 shows the previous 5 instances of the Uranus waxing square to Pluto and the two coming up. Note; the previous exact squares most often marked a short term top then down. Also note on the chart, the horizontal purple lines are the Uranus price lines which have acted as both resistance and support. We appear to be approaching the next Uranus price line at approx. 2082 for the SP500.

This coming week there are three Astrological events that have a history of turns. They all fall on the same date, Dec 4th. These are:

Mars leaving Capricorn and entering Aquarius,
Venus in waxing trine to Jupiter and
Sun waning trine to Uranus.

Many would look at the trine as a positive indicator but it can also indicate things that are overdone. This is particularly true when the planets are Jupiter and Uranus.

A general note on Neptune. Like any planet Neptune can rule many things. One is illusion and delusion. Other things ruled by Neptune are; health and welfare, charities, spirituality, refinement, weakness, healing, hospitals, prisons, legal and illegal drugs, chemicals, poisons, scandal, corruption, fraud, propaganda, films, socialism, the oceans, oil and gas and the navy.
I bring this up because Neptune is in a powerful position, it is in it's own sign, Pisces. Things that it rules come to the fore and are more potent than usual. Neptune is a slow moving Planet and is in each sign approx. 14 years. It's part of the background to history and as the book states, it's the "Sign of the Times".

In Pisces, Neptune acts with the greatest ease. It is often associated with dependency. When looking at a general population this can be dependency on the populations government, including hand-outs and all forms of programs, from pensions to food stamps. Dependency can also cover addiction to technological toys from cell phones that can't be put down to an x-box or other games. Media propaganda is often highlighted during Neptune / Pisces transits as is depression, oppression or exploitation. Pisces is also associated with healing so watch for developments in medicines (traditional and alternative) and medical technologies and alternative healing.

Watch for the effect of the above. Market wise watch the medical sectors and those companies bringing new technologies forward.

Closer at hand we had Neptune turning stationary Direct on Nov 16th and then the Sun square Neptune on Nov 27th, the day of the OPEC meeting and decision. The mid-East is steeped in astrological history and is the source of western Astrology although much has been lost. Neptune rules crude. Did someone use this info to schedule the OPEC meeting  date when the Sun was squaring Neptune and the US markets were closed?

Gold appears to have put in a trough on Nov 7th. This would put us in the 4th week of it's Primary cycle   1  (nominal 18 week).

It has been difficult forecasting many of the commodities due to possible deflationary forces, wild currency moves and market manipulation. Even if it is the 4th week of a new Primary cycle, which is typically bullish, it could turn back down quickly. There are other potentially bullish Astros for Gold in this time frame.

On the daily chart below price has broken through the 15 day sma and touched the 45 day sma on Friday. The next target would be the retracement at approx 61.8% (red) near 1160. If broken then 1160, 1147 and 1130. As mentioned a move below 1130 on good volume, get out.

Subscribers got a more detailed review of the longer term Gold aspects detailing an 8.5 year, 4.25 year and 17 month cycles three weeks ago.

Silver also appears to be in the 4th week of it's Primary cycle cycle  1 on
Nov 7th. Like Gold, Silver appears to have bottomed but the recent down move on Friday brings the same questions as for Gold. Also like Gold watch for a pullback 2-4 weeks along that then turns up. This has been such a strong move one questions if we'll break below the start of the cycle which would be bearish.

The big questions is whether this huge move in crude is a more permanent structural change or shorter term. I suspect we are seeing a new outlook for crude at lower prices.

I gave a number of reasons for the behavior in the price of crude last week. I'll add the major Astros. Crude is ruled by Jupiter and Neptune. As mentioned above Neptune is in it's home sign Pisces, where Neptune is quite powerful. Neptune is also about deceit and confusion.

I'm not looking for a trigger in crude anymore. Aspects to Jupiter or Neptune, the rulers of crude were good candidates.

From last weeks blog post.
"Somewhere between the Nov 17, Neptune direct and Dec 9th, Jupiter retrograde should see a reversal in crude or a change in one of the issues involving crude."

On a longer term basis there is a 38-39 month cycle in crude, many commodities and the US$. The longer term cycles need a wider orb. This cycle could trough out from now to early November. It could also be this week. The following weekly chart shows the 38/39 month cycle in crude. There are sub-cycles. I'm looking at April 2015 for the next high. It will probably be a lower high.

There is also an interesting 16 x 24 week cycle. When they both match (green line) the 16 week (red) and the 24 week (blue) both hit at the same time. This is very often a change in trend. Next date, Dec 8 which is also a Jupiter retrograde date. Jupiter is the co-ruler of crude. Will we see another big move? We may also see a move in precious metals close to this date.

Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?

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