Saturday, April 7, 2018

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SP500

The last Primary cycle low was February 9th. The standard for the Primary cycle is 18 weeks. This was late at the 23th week but this may be distorted as there are other longer-term cycles due. This may have been the 9-month cycle trough as well. Longer tern cycles often push the Primary cycle further out.

This puts us entering the 8th weeks in a new Primary cycle. We may have seen the nominal 6th week trough on March 23 remembering we could get a 9 – 9 ½ week cycle instead. The 6 and  9 ½ are sub cycles of the Primary cycle. The move down on March 23 could be the nominal 6 week cycle trough. If so, this Primary cycle may be unfolding as a 3 pass.

The current 4 year cycle for the SP500 started on Feb 11, 2016. We should be looking for a 15.5 month cycle low. There are typically 3 - 15.5 month cycles in the 4 year cycles.

The 4 year may have 3 -15.5 month cycles and / or 2 - 23 month cycles (a half cycle).

For the SP500



For the DJIA



The Primary cycle that started on Feb 9th may form an ending trough near the week of
June 11th.

I’m looking for a low in May or June, probably May.

The last blog post had the Mercury retrograde dates and possible turns.

Those dates were:
Mercury Retrograde   March 22
Inferior Conjunction    April 1st  (watch April 2)
Mercury Direct            April 15th (watch April 16)

There is one more date, May 3. This is the date Mercury returns to the place it went retrograde.

The key Astro activity over the next couple of weeks include three planets changing direction. This often creates a climate of confusion.
April 15           Mercury turning to Direct motion

April 17th         Saturn turning Retrograde
                        Watch for further  geophysical events in mid April.

April 22           Pluto Retrograde.

Mars continues to be active next week. Review mid-East and Russia activity over the last month.

The 15 day sma on the SP500 chart is moving down. The 15 day sma is also below the 45 day sma which is also rolling over. Price is below both the 15 and 45 sma. This is a negative setup.

Some of the cycles that are coming due are:
-       The Primary Cycle (nominal 18 week) on Feb 9th.
-       9 month cycle
-       9 year
-       5 week.

The Primary Cycles



If the SP500 is retesting the Feb 9th low and moves lower we may see a more dramatic move over the next few weeks.

I’m looking for a more dramatic move in mid-July where we have Pluto conjunct the helio nodes of Pluto. This is the second of a 3-pass. This is also getting close to a lunar and solar eclipses.

On a shorter term basis I track a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle which will be due April 26.

9 Year Cycle
As an example of the DJIA following is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones and the 9 year cycle.



The 9 month cycle



The above chart shows the 9 month or 39 week cycle (blue vertical lines). It was due and appears to have formed in late January. The 20 week cycle was added as well (red vertical lines)

The 3.8 – 4 Year



The above weekly chart of the SP500 shows the synodic cycle for Mars and Vesta. The red circles are the conjunction of the two and the green double arrows are the middle of the cycle. These are the heliocentric aspects (Sun centered).

Note how the conjunction is often at a top with a quick decline. The next Mars / Vesta conjunction is April 23, 2018. If we start to move up into that date it may indicate a turn down.

From the last few posts:
“This coming year could see an increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”

Following are the significant earthquakes (> 6.0) so far in January 2018.
Jan 23             Alaska                         7.9
Jan 10             Honduras                    7.5
Jan 14             Peru                            7.1
Jan 19             Mexico                        6.3
Jan 21             Chile                            6.3
Jan 25             Russia                         6.2

Feb 16             Mexico                        7.2
Feb 25             Papua New Guinea    7.5

Mar 6               Papua New Guinea    6.7
Mar 8               Papua New Guinea    6.8
Mar 24             Papua New Guinea    6.3
Mar 24             Southeast Indian Ridge 6.3
Mar 25             Indonesia                     6.4
Mar 26             Papua New Guinea    6.6
Mar 29             Papua New Guinea    6.9

Apr 2               Bolivia
Apr 7               Papua New Guinea    6.3

There has been a number of volcano’s erupting as well.

On a longer term basis the following monthly chart of the DJIA  shows the 15 year cycle (red vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle (blue lines). The 15 year is due now, the 45 year due in Sept 2019.



In May Uranus will enter Taurus. Look for financial or banking system problems or changes. Uranus will go retrograde and then move backward into Aries before Uranus enters Taurus for good. This may also be a problem in currencies.

Generally speaking the first couple of months of 2018 should be volatile. There are 2 Super Moons and 2 Eclipses and many Mars contacts.

The above combination, with Saturn, could be defining problems / restrictions for the general population, particularly the mature population (pensions?) and with the Sun could affect the President or other leaders. This combination could affect a number of years in the future as Saturn is in a sign for approx. 2 ½ years. Other conditions this may highlight are State funerals, public sorrow and disappointment in general. State assets could be affected as well as industries connected to metals and mining.

The following monthly chart of the DJIA shows when Saturn has been in Capricorn (red x’s). Notice they have all had significant drops.



There could be some type of surprise coming in 2018 from the government or exposing something from the past. There could also be a major breakdown in world affairs or leaders.

The following daily chart of the SP500 shows the Jupiter price line (blue) and the Sun/Earth price line (green). Both of these price lines have a history of providing support and resistance.
When the two lines cross we often see a big range day or reversal. Note how price went down and stopped on the Sun / Earth Price Line. There was a another big range day on April 6th.



I continue to watch the 24th harmonic cycle (360 / 24) cycles for short term turns. The brown squares are Sun / Saturn 24 degrees on the following daily chart. The blue vertical lines are 24 cd’s (calendar days).

The last hit was March 29, 2018 and was a big range day. The next dates are May 14, 2018 then June 27th. I have added 3 price lines to this chart.

-       Saturn – black
-       Uranus – purple
-       Neptune - light blue

Note the date, Feb 9th, 2018 was the day of the low and a big range day.

These price lines can act as support / resistance. It has been at highs and lows. Note also when they cross often gets a reaction in price on a short-term basis. Also note, near the top of the chart is a light blue line. This is the Neptune Price Line. Note how it has been strong resistance to price but has broken through. It should act as strong support when the market turns down.



Gold

Gold started a new Primary cycle on December 12.  We are entering the 17th week of a Primary cycle. Watch Gold closely here, we may have just put in a shortened Primary cycle or Gold is preparing to move down into the Primary cycle trough. The 18 week low is the week of April 16 and April 17, 18 possible low dates.

Gold has been moving up as the US$ has moved down. It was / is important for Gold to stay above 1309.

I’m watching Gold to see if it breaks above the Jan 25 high or Feb 16 highs.

Price has just moved above the 15 and 45 day sma. The 15 sma and 45 day sma are flat / sideways.



The following chart shows seasonal tendencies for Gold. The 2nd half of the year, on average, is up.



The longer term.7.4 Year cycle is shown in the following weekly chart. Note we are still early in the latest 7.4 year cycle.



The following chart shows a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle (blue vertical lines). The next being April 9, 2018. The Moon takes 27 days to orbit the Earth and the Sun takes 27 days to revolve once at the Sun’s equator.

The red lines headed up are the Mars price lines. We went through the Mars price line. Moving below the dark red Mars price line was bearish now we need to move above the darker red Mars price line. It may hit resistance. Price went through the next Mars price line and is just under it.

The 27cd cycle (Blue vertical line) showed a turn on March 13th. There was also a Jupiter semi-square Saturn signature on March 14th. These may have been the start of a move down. I was l

Looking at this whole chart it is based on a 24 harmonic. If you count each line from one darker red line to the next you will find there are 15 of them. 15 * 24 degrees = 360 degrees. Note price went down to Dec 12 where it bounced off a Mars Price Line.



The following daily chart of Gold shows the days Mars is entering a new sign (red squares). Look at this using +- 3 td’s (trading days). The last date was March 17.. These can be at highs or lows. Dec 8 was Mars entering Scorpio the sign that it rules.  Note on the chart, Mars changing signs, to any sign, often has a change in trend in Gold price.. The last red circle shows Mars entering Sagittarius on January 26th. The next sign was Mars entering Capricorn on March 17th. Expect a change in trend. Then mark down May 16th as the next time Mars changes signs.


Crude

We were looking at February 9th as being the trough of the Primary cycle. We are entering the 8th week. Crude price has moved below the 45 day sma and the 15  day sma and was making a move down.

There are many issues with Crude. The new Shanghai crude exchanged opened on March 26. This should have a negative effect of the Petrodollar (US Dollar) and possibly cause the US to lose it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Watch this over the next few weeks. As Crude is sold in Yuan purchasers are given the option to exchange Yuan to Gold. Yeas there is a realatively new Gold exchange as well. They sell physical Gold rather than paper Gold as is often the case in the US.

Watch this closely next week. There should be a growing supply which should be negative for crude price.

The next couple of weeks should be very interesting.

It is quite possible we make another low or at least attempt a low. Neptune rules Pisces, the sign it is currently in and Jupiter is the co-ruler.

The horizontal blue lines on the chart below are the average longitude of the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto (blue). Note how price stopped on August 1 and August 31, right on the average longitude. See it again on Sept 14 and now Jan 16, 2018 which was also a 27 cd (calendar day’s). Crude may be going down into it’s ½ Primary trough.

Watch the blue planetary averages.



On the following daily chart of Crude note the green lines sloping up. This is the price line for the Sun/Earth. The blue lines moving horizontal is the Pluto price line (blue). The Pluto price line acted as support on March 1st and 2nd and again on March 9th, although on March 9th crude made a strong move during the day.

Note how price often follows the Sun price line up and often stops and reverses at the Pluto price line. We often get big range days when the two lines cross, like October 27th.and Nov 22 and recently March 23rd.

Crude has moved down to almost the next Sun / Earth line. Watch Monday to see if it finds support at the next green line or if it moves through the Sun/ Earth line.




5 comments:

  1. It's important to be informed about the moral problem of trading
    https://sites.google.com/site/tradingonlineamoralproblem

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes- I agree that Greed is Good.

      Delete
  2. We are not being greedy or have a moral problem.
    Don't include others with your misguided opinions.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I remember you once mentioned some time ago that we may see an ultimate low in 2019 for the S&P. Is it still valid? Thanks a lot.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yes, a low in 2019. First I'm concerned about mid-May through June this year.

    ReplyDelete