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We are entering the 13th week of a Primary cycle which started on Feb 9, 2018. We may have seen the nominal 6th week trough on April 2nd. We are in a surprising move up starting on May 3rd, a strong Doji. The 6 and 9 ½ weeks are sub cycles of the Primary cycle.
There is also a 9-year cycle due although the current nominal 7-year cycle may have expanded into the 9-year cycle.
The current 4 year cycle for the SP500 started on Feb 11, 2016. We should be looking for a 15.5 month cycle low. There are typically 3 - 15.5 month cycles in the 4 year cycles.
The 4 year may have 3 -15.5 month cycles and / or 2 - 23 month cycles (a half cycle).
For the SP500
The following weekly chart of the SP500 shows the 4 year cycle (blue) and the ½ cycle of 23 months (red).
For the DJIA
The following weekly chart of the DJIA shows the 4 year cycle (blue) and the 15.5 month (red). There are approx. 3 - 15.5 month in the Primary cycle.
The Primary cycle that started on Feb 9th may form an ending trough near the middle of May or June.
The last couple of blog post had the Mercury retrograde dates and possible turns.
Those dates were:
Mercury Retrograde March 22
Inferior Conjunction April 1st (watch April 2)
Mercury Direct April 15th (watch April 16)
There was one more date, May 3. This is the date Mercury returns to the place it went retrograde.
The May 3 date was a strong Doji then a big up day.
Starting now be prepared for more serious events from now through June 2018. These could be violent events in the mid-East and events involving Russia, China and the US.. This may involve Syria and quite possibly other war like activity in Pakistan and India. We may also see increased earthquakes and volcanic activity. North Korea does not appear to be a problem.
Also watch May 18 and 21 for a possible reversal. Looking forward July 27, 2018 could be a nasty time +- 1 week.
The 15 day sma on the SP500 below chart is fairly flat although curling up.. Price is above the15 and 45 day sma, a positive setup.
Some of the cycles that are coming due are:
- The Primary Cycle (nominal 18 week) on Feb 9th.
- 9 month cycle
- 9 year
- 5 week.
The Primary Cycles
The SP500 seems to be reversing up, starting on May 3rd as mentioned above.
If the SP500 is going to retest the Feb 9th low and move lower we may see a more dramatic move over the next few weeks. War like activity is going to have a negative effect on stocks but probably a beneficial effect on precious metals.
I’m looking for a more dramatic move in mid-June (June 21, 2018) where we have Pluto conjunct the heliocentric nodes of Pluto. This is the second of a 3-pass. This is also getting close to a lunar and solar eclipses. More on the eclipses in a future post. Mid July may be another dramatic event.
On a shorter term basis I track a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle which will be due May 3rd. The 27 cd cycle is the red vertical lines.
9 Year Cycle
As an example of the DJIA following is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones and the 9 year cycle. As we’ve said many times longer term coming due often distorts the faster moving cycles.
The 9 month cycle
The above chart shows the 9 month or 39 week cycle (blue vertical lines). It was due and appears to have formed in late January. The 20 week cycle was added as well (red vertical lines). Any green lines are a combination of the 20 and 40 week cycles.
From the last few posts:
“This coming year could see an increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”
Following are the significant earthquakes (> 6.0) so far in January 2018.
Jan 23 Alaska 7.9
Jan 10 Honduras 7.5
Jan 14 Peru 7.1
Jan 19 Mexico 6.3
Jan 21 Chile 6.3
Jan 25 Russia 6.2
Feb 16 Mexico 7.2
Feb 25 Papua New Guinea 7.5
Mar 6 Papua New Guinea 6.7
Mar 8 Papua New Guinea 6.8
Mar 24 Papua New Guinea 6.3
Mar 24 Southeast Indian Ridge 6.3
Mar 25 Indonesia 6.4
Mar 26 Papua New Guinea 6.6
Mar 29 Papua New Guinea 6.9
Apr 2 Bolivia 6.8
Apr 7 Papua New Guinea 6.3
Apr 10 Chile 6.2
Apr 19 Prince Edward Island 6.0
May 5 Tajikistan 6.2
May 5 Papua New Guinea 6.0
There has been a number of volcano’s erupting as well. Japan and Hawaii.
On a longer term basis the following monthly chart of the DJIA shows the 15 year cycle (red vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle (blue lines). The 15 year is due now, the 45 year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer term cycle possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.
In follow up to Uranus above.
Uranus will go retrograde and then move backward into Aries before Uranus enters Taurus for good. This may also be a problem in currencies and rates.
The above combination, with Saturn, could be defining problems / restrictions for the general population, particularly the mature population (pensions?) and with the Sun could affect the President or other leaders. This combination could affect a number of years in the future as Saturn is in a sign for approx. 2 ½ years. Other conditions this may highlight are State funerals, public sorrow and disappointment in general. State assets could be affected as well as industries connected to metals and mining.
The following monthly chart of the DJIA shows when Saturn has been in Capricorn (red x’s). Notice they have all had significant drops.
There could be some type of surprise coming in 2018 from the government or exposing something from the past. There could also be a major breakdown in world affairs or leaders.
The following daily chart of the SP500 shows the Jupiter price line (blue) and the Sun/Earth price line (green). Both of these price lines have a history of providing support and resistance.
When the two lines cross we often see a big range day or reversal. Note how price went down and stopped on the Sun / Earth Price Line. There was a another big range day on April 6th.
I continue to watch the 24th harmonic cycle (360 / 24) cycles for short term turns. The brown squares are Sun / Saturn 24 degrees on the following daily chart. The blue vertical lines are 24 cd’s (calendar days).
The last hit was March 29, 2018 and was a big range day. The next dates are May 14, 2018 then June 27th. I have added 3 price lines to this chart.
- Saturn – black
- Uranus – purple
- Neptune - light blue
Note the date, Feb 9th, 2018 was the day of the low and a big range day.
These price lines can act as support / resistance. It has been at highs and lows. Note also when they cross often gets a reaction in price on a short-term basis. Also note, near the top of the chart is a light blue line. This is the Neptune Price Line.
Gold started a new Primary cycle on December 12. From December 12 we are entering the 21st week of a Primary cycle. Watch Gold closely here, we may have put in a shortened Primary cycle on March 1 or Gold is preparing to move down into the Primary cycle trough now. I’ve been looking for a rise of Gold and Silver into mid-May. Gold is being affected by movement in the US$ and the Yuan.
The blue vertical lines are the 40 trading day cycle.
Gold has been moving up as the US$ has moved down. It was / is important for Gold to stay above 1309. In addition, watch for support / resistance around 1322, the April 6 low.
Gold briefly moved above the Jan 25 high but quickly fell back. With the forecast of additional violence and on-going war like activity in the mid-East and other locals I expect precious metals to move up.
Price has moved above the 15 and below the 45 day sma. The 15 sma and 45 day sma have crossed and appear to be rolling over, however, it was a big range day for Gold.
The longer term.7.4 Year cycle is shown in the following weekly chart. Note we are still relatively early in the latest 7.4 year cycle.
The following chart shows a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle (blue vertical lines). The next being May 7, 2018. The Moon takes 27 days to orbit the Earth and the Sun takes 27 days to revolve once at the Sun’s equator.
The red lines headed up are the Mars price lines. Gold has been moving sideways since January 2018 and have found both resistance and support at the Mars price line. The darker red Mars lines are the main aspect. Moving below the dark red Mars price line was bearish now we need to move above the darker red Mars price line. It may hit resistance. Price did not go through the next Mars price line. Last week it bounced off the Mars price line
The small x’s on the chart show when heliocentric Mercury is in Sagittarius. Mercury is now exiting helio Sagittarius. This may be marking the beginning of a move up.
Looking at this whole chart it is based on a 24 harmonic. If you count each line from one darker red line to the next you will find there are 15 of them. 15 * 24 degrees = 360 degrees. Note price went down to Dec 12 where it bounced off a Mars Price Line.
The following daily chart of Gold shows the days Mars is entering a new sign (red squares). Look at this using +- 3 td’s (trading days). The last date was March 17. These can be at highs or lows. Dec 8 was Mars entering Scorpio the sign that it rules. Note on the chart, Mars changing signs, to any sign, often has a change in trend in Gold price.. The last red circle shows Mars entering Sagittarius on January 26th. The next sign was Mars entering Capricorn on March 17th. Expect a change in trend. Then mark down May 16th as the next time Mars changes signs. This may mark a high. This is one day before Uranus changes signs and enters Taurus.
We were looking at February 9th as being the trough of the Primary cycle. We are entering the 13th week. Crude price has moved above both the 45 day sma and 15 day sma and is now above the January 25th high. This is as high as Crude has been since 2014.
There are many issues with Crude. The new Shanghai crude exchanged opened on March 26. This should have a negative effect of the Petrodollar (US Dollar) and possibly cause the US to lose it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Watch this over the next few weeks / months. As Crude is sold in Yuan, purchasers are given the option to exchange Yuan to Gold. Yes there is a relatively new Gold exchange as well. They sell physical Gold rather than paper Gold as is often the case in the US.
On the following daily chart of Crude note the green lines sloping up. This is the price line for the Sun/Earth. The blue lines moving horizontal are the Pluto price lines (blue). The Pluto price line acted as support on March 1st and 2nd and again on March 9th, although on March 9th crude made a strong move during the day.
Note how price often follows the Sun price line up and often stops and reverses at the Pluto price line. We often get big range days when the two lines cross, like October 27th.and Nov 22 and recently March 23rd. Next date is May 11th and crude reversed.
May 25 has both Jupiter and Neptune in a trine. These planets are the 2 rulers of crude, and may have a positive effect on crude or at least a change in trend at that time. This is a peaceful aspect.