One week left in the month of August and as forecast a few months ago it has been down. From a market cycle perspective this is now either the 19th week of the primary cycle or a possibility June 24 was the trough to the primary cycle and we are now in the 9th week of a newer primary cycle.
If the latter is the case, we may have just put in the major cycle (nominal 6 week) trough and the market would be headed up.
If the former is true the market should be heading down into the trough for the older 19 week primary cycle. We need more price action to determine which primary is active.
This weekend and Monday August 26 Venus will be translating the Uranus / Pluto square and with Jupiter forming a powerful grand square. This could move the markets and I'm thinking down; however, the recent trough and turn up on the following chart seem to be pointing the market up.
In addition to the above the Sun opposes
on August 26th. This also has a history of strong moves in the market, both up
and down. On August 27 Mars enters Leo, again a history of the market moving
strongly while Mars is in the early part of Leo. Moves can be both up and down.
Difficult call. I'm looking for the general markets to struggle early in the week then up and volatile most of the week.
Gold / Silver
Gold put in a primary cycle trough on June 28 and is in it's 8th week. A question is whether the low on August 7 is a trading cycle low (2-4 weeks) or an early major cycle low (5-7 week). The low on August 7th was 5 weeks along. If it was the major cycle trough Gold may have more to run here as it would only be in the 3rd week of a cycle which is 5-7 weeks long. If this is a the second major cycle of the primary then the first major cycle was right translated and I would be looking for the current primary would be right translated as well and therefore positive for more of an increase in Gold.
Watch for resistance around 1412 and 1448. The red retracements on the following chart are from the early May high to the late June low. The blue lines are fib expansions, that is, the fib retracements from A to B taken off C.
It should be noted the Sun opposition to Neptune often reverses the trend for Gold. As noted above that's exact on August 26th.
The low on June 28 may very well have been the 4.25 year low and if so very bullish for Gold.
Crude is currently in the 19th week of it's primary cycle and due for a pull back. The following daily chart for crude shows the Sun (green lines) and Pluto (purple) price lines. It has been quite volatile but seem to be following the green lines up. I'm looking for crude to break through the Pluto price line at approx. $104.30 to signal a possible decline to the primary cycle trough.