For the SP500, cycle-wise we are entering the 17th week of the Primary 1 cycle which started on Feb. 2nd 2015. This cycle is aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15 to 21 weeks.
Being the 17th week we should be looking for the crest in the Primary / nominal 18 week cycle. May 20th could have been the crest. At this point following are the highs in the
DJIA May 19, 2015
DJTI Nov 28, 2014
SP500 May 20, 2015
NYSE May 21, 2015
RUT Apr 15, 2015
On the above chart price of the SP500, the 15 day sma is above the 45 day sma which is bullish but price has just moved below the 15 sma on another strong move down on May 29th.
The brown line making ups and downs is an adjusted Bradley indicator (Bradley-Shramenko). This indicates a short term change in trend is due almost immediately and another, possibly longer term change due near June 8th. Keep in mind the indicator does not indicate polarity, that means, the indicator just identifies there is going to be a change in trend but does indicate direction (up or down). Give it +- 3 td's (trading days).
So we should be heading down into the trough for this nominal 18 week cycle which should be between 05/11/2015 - 07/06/2015 (see red line at bottom right hand corner) as forecast approx. 4 months ago. There are other indications for a move down, as seen below.
From last weeks market letter
"As a whole we should see continued violence with the weight of the signatures pointing to a market that should change direction to down."
"I'm looking for a short but sharp move down..."
Back to this week
We got the short sharp move down on May 26 for the SP500. This is only 4 td's from the high, noted above of May 20, 2015. I'm now looking at May 20th as the crest in the SP500 for this nominal 18 week cycle.
I'm looking for continued strife, discord and extreme violence. This could include social unrest, police shootings, accidents. Water and crude have been in the news and should continue with the emphasis on
Neptune in it's own sign,
Pisces and Mercury retrograde, also in it's own sign of Gemini, a mutable air
sign. Mercury joins both the Sun and Mars in Gemini.
Controversy next week along with potential confusion as Mercury Retrograde continues it's backward trip through Gemini. Changeability should be a key, that is, things will change quickly. We are now at the mid-point of the retrograde period and the Sun / Mercury conjunction on May 30. This is the inferior conjunction (search previous posts) and therefore also the heliocentric conjunction between the Sun and Mercury. Any markets that did not change during the beginning of the retrograde could see a change around the Sun / Mercury conjunction. The following chart has some history. The red arrow pointing left is the retrograde date, the blue arrow pointing right is the direct date, the red dot is the geocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction and the blue dot is the heliocentric Sun / Mercury conjunction.
This mid-retrograde period may be enhanced by
Neptune which was squared by Mars
on May 25th and is squared by the Sun on May 31. Neptune
can rule things and events that are spiritual, utopian ideals, socialism and
things associated with hospitals. Neptune can
also stand for lies, deceit, falsehoods, swindling, loss and lack of truth.
Distorted truth may be coming from news outlets.
At any rate,
is in a strong position. As mentioned last week this should emphasize events
dealing with water, crude and Natural Gas. Things that Neptune
The Mercury retrograde period is known to be volatile. In this instance we also have Mercury moving back from Out of Bounds, on June 2nd adding to the potential for increased volatility. ( see previous posts for a description of "Out of Bounds") Also, with Mars in Gemini (war of words or real war?) market volatility should increase.
Other events may include shootings, accidents, fires and violence due to religious matters. Geophysical (earthquakes, volcanoes) could also increase.
The 224/225 cd cycle is moving out of orb without the change in trend that I had expected. It was exact on April 29th. The markets did go down from April 27th to May 6th but I had expected a deeper low. As seen in the history of the following chart this cycle (red vertical lines) has been very reliable in identifying moves both up and down. I expected a larger move down.
There is also a 168 td cycle possibly starting on May 22 but has an orb of influence from May 14th to June 23th. Note the blue and black vertical lines on the following chart are at approx. 168 td but at differing starting points. Either could be near the start of a move down. A trough in this time frame would be the Primary cycle (nominal 18 week) as well.
Also note the brown line, the Bradley Shramenko has a turn on May 22 and June 8th.
The last few weeks we have mentioned Venus being "Out of Bounds" OOB. Venus comes back in bounds on June 2 very close to Mars going "Out of Bounds". Another potentially volatile signature and potential change in trend.
To repeat from last week and stress the points on
One of the aspect coming up is
Neptune turning retrograde. Neptune
is in a powerful position in Pisces, the sign that it rules. Neptune
rules crude, natural gas, water, beliefs (religious beliefs?), socialism,
communism, left-wing politics, fraud, misinformation, swindling, loss and vice,
the soul and psychic connections. It is in each sign approx. 13-14 years but it
varies quite a bit due to retrograde motion. Neptune
will be hit by a square from Mars and a square from the Sun before the
retrograde period. June 11 is Mercury turning direct and June 12th Neptune retrograde. Both have a history of trickery, lack
of the truth and make it difficult determining what is going on in all walks of
life and places. This could also mark a change in trend.
In short the next two weeks should see continued volatility and perhaps more extreme violence or talk/communication of same. The potential for fraud, lies and misinformation should continue into the June 11 / 12 dates, at least, where we have Mercury turning direct to end it's retrograde period and within a day
turning retrograde on June 12th. Other events may include shootings, accidents,
fires and violence due to religious matters. Geophysical (earthquakes,
volcanoes) could also increase. Neptune has a history of earthquake activity
and I see we just had a 7.8, deep quake, in the ocean off the coast of Japan.
We are looking for longer term cycles, 4 and 6 year, to end this year or 1st quarter 2016. The 4 year should end at a Primary cycle low which may be distorted. The 6 year may end there as well. The troughs for the 4 and 6 year cycles will be much deeper. There are other cycles coming due in the first half of 2015 which are reserved for subscribers.
Gold appears to have put in a put in a Primary cycle 1 trough on March 17th. This was 1 td after the Uranus / Pluto square. This puts us entering the 11th week of the nominal 18 week during this coming week.
Gold put in a high on Monday May 18th, the same day as Mercury turning retrograde and then headed down. This may have been the crest of the nominal 18 week cycle. This was also 2 td's from the time Fib of 2.618 noted on previous posts. This was based on the move down in Gold from October 2012 to June 2013.
We are monitoring another cycle for Gold which will hit in the summer but reserved for subscribers. As noted last week, Mercury retrograde has a strong history of changes in trend for Gold close to the retrograde date. In this case it was to the day
If we have just seen the crest, Gold should be moving down from here for a few weeks, potentially a couple of months. This would be opposite the US buck. With the Astrological aspects Gold may be very volatile, like the main market indices.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold broke back down through the Venus price line and appears to have found support at the next level (45 degrees) Venus price line. As I have pointed out many times before, when the heliocentric Venus and Jupiter price lines cross there is often a sudden move in Gold. Note the big down move on May 26th.
Also note Gold seems to be moving up the Venus price line last 3 days. We may see more of a move up but the general trend should be flat to down.
This coming week of June 1 we should be entering the 11th week of a Primary cycle which started Mar 18, 2015.
I'm watching the dates around any Neptune aspects and the
Neptune retrograde date. Like stocks and Gold, crude
could be very volatile for the next few weeks. For example May 29th had Mercury
waxing square to Neptune. There was almost a
$3 swing up on Friday.
Other Astrological dates are reserved for subscribers.
Crude appears to have put in a "W" bottom. Since the shooting star Doji on May 6th Crude has been in sideways consolidation. Crude, like other commodities is being affected by the
US$ moves and news out of the
As seen on the following chart the
price line (green) gave support on Thursday May 28th and bounced through the Jupiter
(orange) price line. If we have seen the crest on May 6th we may be moving
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and Crude also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 2nd half 2015 dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in July) are available for purchase.