SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise we are
entering the 15th week of the
Primary 1
cycle which started on Feb. 2nd 2015. This cycle is
aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15 to 21 weeks.
Being the 15th week we should start to
look for the crest in the Primary / nominal 18 week cycle. Statistically
the days around May 15th and May 21st
would be good timing for a primary cycle crest.
From last weeks market letter
" Other charts
and factors which point to something more negative are the 224/225 cd cycle and the Saturn
sesquisquare Uranus, exact on May 4th
there may be a significant change in direction, possibly instigated by a
surprise event. "
"In summary I
expect an increase in violent war like activity. Some of these events could
occur on American soil over the next couple of weeks. We are in a period of
stress which will be affected by the Mars
Saturn opposition on May 15th +- a few. This is also OPEX, option expiry
day which is normally volatile and difficult to predict."
Although we went down the first 3
days of the week, Thursday was a big up day and has moved price out of the
symmetrical triangle as it approaches the end of the pattern. A surprise move
due to the one day size of the move but not the surprise event I was looking
for.
I'm looking for violence to be
more extreme, if that is possible. This coming week we should see more
senseless violence, anger and grief, violent weather and possibly more
geophysical disturbances.
On the above chart price has
broken out of the symmetrical triangle we have been following. I like to follow
moves in 3's so I'm looking for price to stay above the triangle for a minimum
of 3 td's, a feat the SP500 has been unable to do for the past few weeks.
Although the Saturn sesquisquare Uranus signature is slowly moving out of orb
the 224/225 cd cycle is still active. As
seen in the history of the following chart this cycle (red vertical lines) has
been very reliable in identifying moves both up and down. I expected a larger move
down and still do.
This week we have Mercury turning
retrograde on May 18th. The inferior
conjunction between Mercury and the Sun occurs on May 29th and Mercury turns direct again on June 11th. Since this is the inferior conjunction it is also the heliocentric
conjunction between the Sun and Mercury.
As a reminder the two planets
inside the Earth's orbit are Mercury and Venus. Both can have inferior and
superior conjunctions depending on whether they are on the Earth;s side of the
Sun or the far side of the Sun.
Inferior conjunction
Superior conjunction
The following chart shows Mercury
retrograde (red arrow pointing left), Mercury turning direct (blue arrow
pointing right), the geocentric inferior conjunction (small red circle) and the
heliocentric conjunction (small blue circle) on the same day. Note the swings
in the SP500 on any of those dates in the past.
This Mercury retrograde period is
occurring in Gemini, a mutable air sign which Mercury rules. Mercury also rules
communication, commerce and trading, that is buying and selling. It has a
reputation for problems, both communication, contracts and wrong decisions or choices. Ray Merriman of MMA
has a saying for Mercury retrograde periods, that is "Take profits too
soon". That meaning, if you have made a profit, don't wait until you hit
resistance, get out.
The Mercury retrograde period is
known to be volatile. In this instance we also have Mercury moving back from
Out of Bounds, adding to the potential for increased volatility. Also, with
Mars in Gemini (war of words or real war?) volatility should increase.
The last few weeks we have mentioned
Venus being "Out of Bounds" OOB. Venus comes back in bounds on June 2 very close to Mars going
"Out of Bounds".
There are other transits hitting May
20th through the end of the month which are reserved for subscribers. I will
mention May 21 and May 25 where Venus translates the separating Uranus / Pluto
square. It is still close.
I'm looking for a short but sharp
move down then continuing up in June with a potential high around June 22 when
Jupiter trines Uranus. The question is, do we get the move down this coming week or after Memorial day? Do we get a violent event on Memorial day?
We are looking for longer term
cycles, 4 and 6 year, to end this year or 1st quarter 2016. The 4 year should
end at a Primary cycle low which may be distorted. The 6 year may end there as
well. The troughs for the 4 and 6 year cycles will be much deeper. There are
other cycles coming due in the first half of 2015 which are reserved for
subscribers.
Gold
Gold appears to have put in a put in a Primary cycle 1
trough on March 17th. This was 1 td after the
Uranus / Pluto square. This puts us entering the 9th week of the nominal 18 week during this coming week.
Last weeks action has changed the short term outlook for
Gold. With the surge in Gold on May 13th Gold has put in a new high for this
Primary / nominal 18 week cycle. Prior to this week Gold had a very left
translated cycle which was bearish. With a new hogh and potential for more
Gold's cycle will be neutral or right translated which would be bullish.
Mercury retrograde (see notes above) has a strong history of
changes in trend close to the retrograde date. The move last week could have been
it or it is dead ahead.
Gold has now moved above the key retracement areas mentioned
the last few weeks around 1218-1219. Again I would like to see 3 closes above
this area.
On May 20th we
hit the 2.618 time Fib based on the move down in Gold from Oct. 2012 to June
2013. Fib times often mark a move in PM's both up and down. Surprisingly Venus
in opposition to Pluto on May 21st has had an inconsistent history with moves
in Gold prices.
Gold made some positive moves last week but watch the May
20th date for a potential reversal. Remember the +- 2 td's.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus
(green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold broke above the Venus price line and
now sits just below the Jupiter price line (blue). The Jupiter price line is
currently at 1225 and should act as resistance.
I still expect Gold to weaken very soon and be down until
late June / early July. Currently this depends on a reversal up for the US $. As
mentioned above watch May 20th. Mid-year or shortly thereafter should be positive
for Gold
Crude
This coming week of May
18 we should be entering the 15th
week of a Primary cycle which started Jan
29, 2015 and appears to have put in a nominal 6 week trough on March 18th.
Crude appears to have put in a "W" bottom. Since the
shooting star doji on May 6th Crude has been in sideways consolidation. Price
has just moved below the 15 day sma. This being the 15th week we may have seen
the crest of the nominal 18 week cycle. Watch for support at the 23.6%
retracement around 57.50. Crude, like other commodities is being affected by
the US $
moves.
As seen on the following chart the Jupiter price line (orange)
gave support late in the week. If this support fails the Neptune
price line (green), which has been support / resistance in the past is at the
56.40 area. If we have seen the crest on May 6th we may be moving down.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 1st half 2015
dates and subscription to the weekly letter are available.
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