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I'm looking for reversals in the US Indices, Gold and Crude this week.
SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise Feb 11 was the Primary cycle trough. 1
that started on Aug
24th. Feb 11th was a slightly
lower low than Jan 20th low. Jan 20th was the low for a number of other
indices. Feb 11th starts a new nominal
18 week cycle in the SP500 and we are entering the 6th week. We most often see a
nominal 6 week cycle to start a new nominal 18 week cycle. The 6 week cycles
has a range of 5 to 7 weeks so we are in the time frame for a crest for the
new 6 week cycle. Bear in mind we could be seeing a 1/2 Primary, approx. 9 weeks but I'm leaning to a nominal 6 week cycle
which could be extended.
Video
My outlook is bearish going into
the Spring due to the Astrological aspects being formed, namely the Saturn / Neptune square and the Jupiter / Saturn square. There are
others. These 3 planets will be forming a powerful T-Square in mutable signs.
I'm looking for a volatile market
in March and an explosive environment in
April. April may see some violent
events. The key dates will be in the April subscriber letter. There is
one of those dates further down in this blog.
The Uranus / Pluto square is still in orb but will soon be fading. March
through June of 2016 looks troublesome and very volatile. I'm looking for two
and possibly 3 lows from now into June with one of the lows coinciding with the
current nominal 18 week cycle. The new
nominal 18 week cycle which started on Feb 11 is therefore forecast to end
as a trough approx. 18 weeks hence. That puts us in the week of June 13 with a range from May 30
to July 4th
The week of June 13th, just discussed is the week for the next Saturn / Neptune waning square with Neptune
going retrograde earlier in the week. This is a potential time for a more
significant low.
This coming week we have Jupiter squaring Saturn on March 23
which is 2 days before Saturn turns
retrograde. Saturn is moving very slowly during this square, typically
giving it more power. Saturn turning retrograde will start it's move to form a
square with Neptune in a few months.
There was also a Saturn parallel Pluto aspect on Feb 9, 2 days away from the important
Feb 11 date. Watch the days around April
28 for a possible low or start of a move down when Saturn is parallel Pluto
once again.
The rise off the Feb 11 low has been
more bullish than normally expected but this may be due to the planets in
changeable mutable signs. Price is above
the 15 day sma and 45 day sma. The 45 day average is the 1/2 cycle to the 90
day or 18 week and the 15 day average is the 1/2 cycle to the 30 day or 6 week.
The time frame around March 23rd
where we have the next Jupiter / Saturn square
with Saturn turning retrograde would be good timing for a turn. This
signature has a history of turns, both up and down. The fact it is the 6th week
hints it will be a low.
There is also a Lunar eclipse on
March 23rd with the Sun at 3 degrees 17 minutes in Aries and the Moon at 3
degrees 17 minutes in Libra. There was
an eclipse on March 24, 1940 which was very important in the formation of Pakistan . There
was a 3 day meeting called the Lahore Resolution which led to the formation of Pakistan as a
separate country. The degrees of this eclipse have been important for Pakistan and I look for events involving Pakistan close the Lunar eclipse
date of March 23, 2016.
If we don't get any type of
reversal that is expected around March 23 then we may be seeing a 1/2 Primary cycle which could
potentially go up into the 9th or 10th week.
Taken together Jupiter trine Pluto then Jupiter square Saturn
should be identifying a period of great
volatility.
Mars leaves Scorpio, where it has
given Gold a huge thrust up and entered Sagittarius on March 5. This results in
both Mars and Saturn in Sagittarius , a signature for a religious conflict or
the amplification of one. Water may
be a problem, too much in some areas, none in others.
In April there is a configuration
pointing to either possible strife and
discord associated with religion, terrorist act, other war or trade war. Astrological
forecasting is a process of identifying periods of time where the Astrological
energy points to possible events in the future.
I'll be watching the U.S.A
financial system / currency in follow up to the video from the February 29 post. This should be a long
process. Note in the video the last similar occurrence took almost one year to
see an effect.
With the longer term market cycles we use the Astrological
aspects and Astrological events to determine a more exact time. Note: I have
taken off the brief description of the Uranus / Pluto waning square. Longer
term geocentric Astrological cycles that are coming up include:
Jupiter waning square
Saturn
- in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"The business cycle and direct effect on European
history. Major changes will be occurring in Europe
as result of the refuge migration. There is a major sign change coming up when
Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct in 2020. More on this 240 year conjunction in a
future post."
Saturn square Neptune
-in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
Saturn is about social order, structure and regulations. Neptune can be politically unrealistic and a desire to
avoid confrontation. It can be devious, underhanded and use subversive tactics.
"This aspect is often present near times when there is
a change in trend for interest rates or inflation. It can also be a period of
epidemics, pandemics suffering, depression and money valuation problems. This
could be a change in the world's reserve currency or issues around it. A large
increase in precious metals is also possible as it is a money valuation issue.
This 36 year aspect has been associated with political changes, reforms and
development of socialism. One wonders in regards to epidemics and sickness,
would this be natural illnesses or man-made." If you feel depressed or not
at ease this aspect may be the cause. One of these planets may be hitting a
planet in your horoscope.
On
the following weekly chart of the DJIA, the red squares are Jupiter square Saturn and the green
squares are Saturn square Neptune . The lows mentioned above should be completed
by the last green square.
For
2016 we have Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and the North Node in mutable signs. In addition both
eclipses are in mutable signs. Mutable signs are about flexibility and the ability
or need to change. They are also about things that are not in control and
extremes. We are in for a wild ride for the next couple of months in the
markets and other areas of life.
With all these planets in mutable
signs one might expect a fast changing, exciting, fun environment. Let's not
forget the Saturn is the focal point of a T-Square,
with a square to Neptune . Amongst other
things Saturn is fear. This could be pointing to life
threatening epidemics and with Neptune this
could mean water borne diseases. Natural or
man-made?
Saturn is in Sagittarius which
rules the law, religion, philosophy and science. With the square to Neptune is a good signal for a religious message that
gets perverted. With Mars joining Saturn in Sagittarius on March 5th watch for
a pickup in current hostilities.
Charts we have not shown for awhile.
The first 2 charts are daily charts of the SP500, and the Russell 2000. The
horizontal blue lines are the average longitude of the planets Jupiter, Saturn,
Uranus, Neptune and Pluto on all 3 charts This average is converted to price
and displayed on the charts. Notice how well they have acted as support and
resistance. The SP500 went through resistance close to 2013 and is approaching
2058. I'm watching to see if 2058 provides resistance and reverses the index to
down.
The second chart is the Russell
2000. This index is subject to far less manipulation than the SP500. Notice how
well it respects the Astrological average price lines. It's too bad we have to
bring up manipulation but the reality is, it happens.
The other chart we have been
showing is this Fan which started on March 6, 2009 at the low. The dark blue
line has acted as support most of the way up. It is the 50% line or 45 degrees.
The red line we have just touched is 61.8%. It hasn't been touched since Oct.
2011. The red vertical lines is a 512
cd's (calendar days) cycle which fell on March 9, within one day from
a powerful Total Solar Eclipse. 512 cd's, calendar days is a fairly long
period so we should allow +- 5 td's. It has been found at highs and lows. If we
get no reaction this week we'll have to cancel this cycle. I've added Fibonacci
arcs (light blue).
Other longer term cycles that may
be close to seeing their lows in the next couple of months are the 6.5 - 7 year
cycle. I'm looking at the period from now
through the spring of 2016 as a potential time period for these cycles.
They are long term cycles and need a broad orb. Assuming the 2009 low was an 18
year cycle low, we may be looking at a 9 year cycle low late 2017 - 2018.
I was asked for my long term view
and here it is. I'm looking for the world wide economy to be basically down
until 2020. This coincides with a long term Astrological phenomenon known as
Tigonalis which involves the Jupiter / Saturn conjunctions. Every 240 years the
conjunction of these planets changes elements. In 2020 the Jupiter/ Saturn
conjunction will occur in Aquarius, a fixed,
air sign. I expect dramatic technological developments leading into this
time which should be, like the internet, life-changing developments.
The following daily chart of the
SP500 shows the 45 cd (calendar day) cycle. Purple vertical lines. The next hit
is March 30.
“The future
influences the present just as much as the past.”
-- Friedrich Nietzsche
-- Friedrich Nietzsche
Gold
Gold put in a nominal 18 week cycle 1
trough on Dec 3rd. 2015 which has marked an
important low.
This puts us entering the 16th week of the Primary cycle and entering the 10th week of the 2nd nominal 6 week cycle during this coming week. This may be
forming a 1/2 Primary cycle.
As we've mentioned before Mars in Scorpio often results in big moves in Gold both up and
down. Mars entered Scorpio on Jan 3,
2016 and left Scorpio for
Sagittarius on March 5, 2016. Due to retrograde motion Mars will be back in
Scorpio later in the year, May 27th
in fact, 1 day after a Jupiter / Saturn square. This should be an important
period for Gold.
Following is a daily chart for Gold. The blue x's show Mars
in Scorpio. Note the brown square at the
high on March 11th. This is the Sun opposing the North Node. During much of
the run up in Gold Jupiter was almost conjunct the North Node and may be the
reason we got such a strong move. The orange vertical lines are a 14 cd
(calendar day) cycle which has been at highs and lows. The next one is March
24th +- 2 td's
Perhaps investors are getting somewhat nervous with fiat
currencies.
"The emperor has
no clothes". Negative interest rates certainly helps. With Mars
leaving Scorpio I have a small but growing short. We finally saw a down day on
Friday.
In addition the following is a daily Gold chart showing
price has recently broken down through the 15 day sma. Note the two indicators,
Momentum is rolling over and MACD is rolling over as well.
I'm expecting a bigger move in Gold later in the year,
possibly at the end of this Primary cycle which may also be a 17 month cycle
low. The move should be up. Subscribers have the potential dates.
The price lines on the following daily Gold chart take the
longitudinal position of the heliocentric planet and converts it to price.
Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) have provided good support and resistance.
Notice on March 18 Gold moved down and touched the Jupiter
price line (blue). Watch this closely next week. Watch for a break through this
price line next week, currently at 1248.
The price line chart above has covered heliocentric (Sun
centered) position of Venus and Jupiter.
The following video looks at the same chart but from a
geocentric (Earth centered) view.
Video Gold
Crude
Feb 11 had another
lower low and is now marked a Primary cycle trough which has us starting the 6th week of a new nominal 18 week
cycle. Bear in mind there are geopolitical issues affecting crude which can
effect the price quickly and directly.
For crude, nothing has changed with the demand, supply
situation or the over flowing storage capacity or the flotilla of ships
carrying crude with no place to unload. There has been no agreement to limit
production quotas. What we do have is many banks around the world holding a
great deal of debt for energy companies. Last week I said "I think I'll just watch for awhile" Still watching.
Crude powerfully broke through the planet averages on March
18th printing a Shooting Star Doji, a
signature for a reversal.
With the comments above under the SP500 Mars will be
entering Sagittarius and joining Saturn there on March 5th. This is a war like
configuration and being Sagittarius it would not be surprising if religion was
involved. This could also be pointing to a terrorist event. April looks like a
violent month with events, whatever they are, coming to fruition near the week
of April 17th +- 2 td's. These are
aspects pointing to war like conditions. terrorist events, geophysical upsets
or violent weather.
I've been looking for Astrological aspects that hit Jupiter
or Neptune. Both are co-rulers of crude. There are a few on March 16th when Jupiter trines Pluto and March 23 when Jupiter squares
Saturn. Watch these dates for moves in crude,.
Many commodities and financials should be affected by the Saturn / Neptune waning square this
year. This is a 3 pass with the last 2 occurring mid-Year and then September
2016. This is a 36 year cycle so looking back 36 years we had severe problems
with the lack of crude and interest rates went over 20%. Things are never the
same, but often close as we now have an abundance of crude and very low (negative?)
interest rates approximately 36 years later. These longer term aspects color a
period of history rather than a day, week or month.
Looking at the crude chart we see a Primary cycle low now on
Feb 11. The last cycle is an example
of a left translated cycle with the crest forming closer to the beginning
trough. Left translated cycles are bearish, they simply spend more time going
down than moving up. After 7 years of QE in the U.S. and loose monetary policy we
haven't seen many left translated cycles for some time.
It appears we are entering the 6thweek of a new nominal 18 week cycle. I've mentioned before when a
Primary cycle trough is formed it is usually bullish and we typically get a
short dip cycle 2 - 3 weeks after the 18 week cycle trough. This gives traders
the opportunity to get in if they missed the original trough. Feb 24th (TD on the chart) may have
been that dip. We should now be looking for the crest of the first nominal 6
week cycle in the new 18 week cycle unless we have another 1/2 Primary cycle.
Video Crude
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 1st half 2016
dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in Jan) are available
for purchase.
Hi Gord, as SPX weekly close was higher than prior week, how much of a drop in SPX are you expecting? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteLook at the SP500 chart with the planetary averages. Levels 2013 then 1968 should be good targets. We may go up first (i.e.Monday)
ReplyDeleteGold and silver are climbing up. Is this the end of downturn? Do you expect the trend to be upwards for some time starting from now?
ReplyDeleteGold is in a sideways consolidation since Feb 11. I expecting a more down before we move up. If you are a long term investor you could buy here with the understanding it could go down first.
ReplyDeleteWith the Brussels terriorist attack occurring today it seems the explosive events you mentioned have been brought forward. Like the other person I am tempted by the gold fear bid but it maybe a temporary one. Saturn turns retrograde this week. Usually it is bearish for gold. I shall watch the gold market closely.
ReplyDeleteChris, I'm watching it closely as well. May put in a buy stop. Tomorrow has Jupiter square Saturn with Saturn nearly stopped. It will be turning Retrograde on March 25th. Strife and discord should continue through April.
ReplyDeleteCONGRATS GORD,
ReplyDeleteAll the ducks did your bidding on cue.
Does it look like USD catching a bid much higher?
Thanks again
Tony
A move above 96.40-96.45 would indicate a short term trend move up.
Delete