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SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise Feb 11 was the Primary cycle trough. 1
that started on Aug
24th. Feb 11th was a slightly
lower low than Jan 20th low. Jan 20th was the low for a number of other
indices. Feb 11th should start a new
nominal 18 week cycle in the SP500 and we are entering the 5th week. We most often see a
nominal 6 week cycle to start a new nominal 18 week cycle. The 6 week cycles
has a range of 5 to 7 weeks so we are in the time frame for a crest for the
new 6 week cycle.
My outlook is bearish going into
the Spring due to the Astrological aspects being formed, namely the Saturn / Neptune square and the Jupiter / Saturn square. There are
others. These 3 planets will be forming a powerful T-Square in mutable signs.
For the markets, this should be a
wild trip up and down. I'm looking for a
volatile market in March and an explosive environment in April. April may see some violent events. The key dates
will be in the April subscriber letter.
The Uranus / Pluto square is still in orb but will soon be fading. March through June of 2016 looks troublesome and very volatile. I'm looking for two and possibly 3 lows from now into June with one of the lows coinciding with the current nominal 18 week cycle. The new nominal 18 week cycle which started on Feb 11 is therefore forecast to end as a trough approx. 18 weeks hence. That puts us in the week of June 13 with a range from May 30 to July 4th
The week of June 13th, just discussed is the week for the next Saturn / Neptune
waning square with Neptune going retrograde
earlier in the week. This is a potential time for a more significant low.
There was also a Saturn parallel Pluto aspect on Feb 9, 2 days away from the important
Feb 11 date. Watch the days around April
28 for a possible low or start of a move down when Saturn is parallel Pluto
once again.
The rise off the Feb 11 low has been
more bullish than normally expected but this may be due to the planets in
changeable mutable signs. Price is now
above the 15 day sma and 45 day sma. The 45 day average is the 1/2 cycle to the
90 day or 18 week and the 15 day average is the 1/2 cycle to the 30 day or 6
week.
The ALERT sent out to subscribers on
March 5th will be updated this weekend with one potential critical date.
From last week, the high we were
looking for on March 7, 8 came in 1
trading day early on March 4th. We were not expecting the large increase on
March 11 but it is in the timeframe where the 6 week cycle is still going up
and with all the planets mentioned in mutable signs, it's the time for large
price swings in both directions. Watch for these around the key dates we've
mentioned.
The time frame around March 23rd
where we have the next Jupiter / Saturn square
with Saturn turning retrograde would be good timing for a turn. This signature
has a history of turns, both up and down. The fact it is the 6th week hints it
will be a low. More price action is required to confirm this. Before this
happens we have the Jupiter / Pluto trine on March 16th. The latter aspect is
somewhat unreliable but may be identifying a nominal 6 week cycle high near
this date. There's not much in common between Jupiter and Pluto.
Taken together Jupiter trine Pluto
then Jupiter square Saturn should be identifying a period of great volatility.
The "Total Solar Eclipse on the evening of March 8th, New York time"
turned out to be a non-event on the exact day. The subscribers letter described
the potential long term effect of Solar Eclipses. We haven't heard the last of
this eclipse. Watch March 14 and 15, geophysical
events, markets and Syria .
We have already seem some activity from this eclipse. The Moon was in almost
exact square to the point where the eclipse took place on March 8th when the
7.8 earthquake hit off Java on March 2nd. This eclipse was also part of a
T-square with Saturn acting as the focal point. That meaning the energy of the
eclipse will be expressed through Saturn which can be restrictive and is in
Sagittarius a mutable, fire sign, the sign of religion, nationalism and
patriotism.
Mars leaves Scorpio, where it has
given Gold a huge thrust up and enters Sagittarius on March 5. This results in
both Mars and Saturn in Sagittarius , a signature for a religious conflict or
the amplification of one. Water may
be a problem, too much in some areas, none in others.
Starting in Mid-March there is a
configuration on a cycle chart pointing to either a possible religious battle
or trade war. Astrological forecasting is a process of identifying periods of
time where the Astrological energy points to possible events in the future.
There is similar, but stronger energy in mid-April for this type of event.
I believe we are close to longer
term cycle bottoms, both the 6.5 - 7 year cycle and the Kitchin cycle, 3.3
years (or 40 months). The Kitchin cycle probably bottomed on Feb 11th. Many markets made lows that
day or Jan 20th.
I'll be watching the U.S.A
financial system / currency in follow up to the video from the February 29 post. This should be a long
process. Note in the video the last similar occurrence took almost one year to
see an effect.
Mercury will start it's
translation of this Saturn / Jupiter / Neptune T-Square from
March 11 -15. On the
last date, March 15, Mercury will pass over the point of the March 8th Solar
Eclipse adding to the volatile environment. This may be an important day.
With the longer term market cycles we use the Astrological
aspects and Astrological events to determine a more exact time. Note: I have
taken off the brief description of the Uranus / Pluto waning square. Longer
term geocentric Astrological cycles taht are coming up include:
Jupiter waning square
Saturn
- in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
"The business cycle and direct effect on European
history. Major changes will be occurring in Europe
as result of the refuge migration. There is a major sign change coming up when
Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct in 2020. More on this 240 year conjunction in a
future post."
Saturn square Neptune
-in the middle of a 3 pass, 2 exact hits to come this year
Saturn is about social order, structure and regulations. Neptune can be politically unrealistic and a desire to
avoid confrontation. It can be devious, underhanded and use subversive tactics.
"This aspect is often present near times when there is
a change in trend for interest rates or inflation. It can also be a period of
epidemics, pandemics suffering, depression and money valuation problems. This
could be a change in the world's reserve currency or issues around it. A large
increase in precious metals is also possible as it is a money valuation issue.
This 36 year aspect has been associated with political changes, reforms and
development of socialism. One wonders in regards to epidemics and sickness,
would this be natural illnesses or man-made." If you feel depressed or not
at ease this aspect may be the cause. One of these planets may be hitting a
planet in your horoscope.
On
the following weekly chart of the DJIA, the red squares are Jupiter square Saturn and the green
squares are Saturn square Neptune . The lows mentioned above should be completed
by the last green square.
For
2016 we have Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and the North Node in mutable signs. In addition both
Solar eclipses are in mutable signs. Mutable signs are about flexibility
and the ability or need to change. They are also about things that are not in
control and extremes. We are in for a wild ride for the next couple of months
in the markets and other areas of life.
With all these planets in mutable
signs one might expect a fast changing, exciting, fun environment. Let's not
forget the Saturn is the focal point of a T-Square, with a square to Neptune . Amongst other things Saturn is fear. This could be pointing to life threatening epidemics and
with Neptune this could mean water borne
diseases. Natural or
man-made?
Saturn is in Sagittarius which
rules the law, religion, philosophy and science. With the square to Neptune is a good signal for a religious message that
gets perverted. With Mars joining Saturn in Sagittarius on March 5th watch for
a pickup in current hostilities.
Charts we have not shown for awhile.
The first 2 charts are daily charts of the SP500, and the Russell 2000. The
horizontal blue lines are the average longitude of the planets Jupiter, Saturn,
Uranus, Neptune and Pluto on all 3 charts This average is converted to price
and displayed on the charts. Notice how well they have acted as support and
resistance. The SP500 went through resistance close to 2013. I'm watching to
see if it holds above that level.
The second chart is the Russell
2000. This index is subject to far less manipulation than the SP500. Notice how
well it respects the Astrological average price lines. It's too bad we have to
bring up manipulation but the reality is, it happens.
The other chart we haven't shown
for a while is this Fan which started on March 6, 2009 at the low. The dark
blue line has acted as support most of the way up. It is the 50% line or 45
degrees. The red line we have just touched is 61.8%. It hasn't been touched
since Oct. 2011. The black vertical lines is a 512 cd's (calendar days) cycle which next falls on March 9, within one day from a powerful Total Solar Eclipse. 512
cd's, calendar days is a fairly long period so we should allow +- 5 td's. It
has been found at highs and lows. This is shaping up to be a high for the
current nominal 6 week cycle .I've added Fibonacci arcs (light blue).
Other longer term cycles that may
be close to seeing their lows in the next couple of months are the 6.5 - 7 year
cycle. I'm looking at the period from now
through the spring of 2016 as a potential time period for these cycles.
They are long term cycles and need a broad orb. Assuming the 2009 low was an 18
year cycle low, we may be looking at a 9 year cycle low late 2017 - 2018.
I was asked for my long term view
and here it is. I'm looking for the world wide economy to be basically down
until 2020. This coincides with a long term Astrological phenomenon known as
Tigonalis which involves the Jupiter / Saturn conjunctions. Every 240 years the
conjunction of these planets changes elements. In 2020 the Jupiter/ Saturn
conjunction will occur in Aquarius, a fixed,
air sign. I expect dramatic technological developments leading into this
time which should be, like the internet, life-changing developments.
The following daily chart of the
SP500 shows the 45 cd (calendar day) cycle. The next hit is March 30.
"In
a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act."
-- George Orwell
Gold
Gold put in a nominal 18 week cycle 1
trough on Dec 3rd. 2015 which has marked an
important low.
This puts us entering the 15th week of the Primary cycle and entering the 9th week of the 2nd nominal 6 week cycle during this coming week. The nominal 6
week cycle has a range of 5 to 7 weeks so this appears stretched. We may be
seeing the formation of a 1/2 Primary cycle.
As we've mentioned before Mars in Scorpio often results in big moves in Gold both up and
down. Mars entered Scorpio on Jan 3, 2016
and will leave Scorpio for Sagittarius
on March 5, 2016. Due to retrograde motion Mars will be back in Scorpio
later in the year, May 27th in fact,
1 day after a Jupiter / Saturn square. This should be an important period for
Gold.
Following is a daily chart for Gold. The blue x's show Mars
in Scorpio. Heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius has passed.
I've been trying to figure what has caused the strength in
this move. Yes, we had Mars in Scorpio and Gold often rises when this occurs.
It may just be the fact Gold prices were held down so long they exploded up.
Another possibility is Jupiter has been conjunct the North node for most of
this period. It has been a rare event that may help explain the powerful move. Perhaps
investors are getting somewhat nervous with fiat currencies.
"The emperor has
no clothes". Negative interest rates certainly helps. With Mars
leaving Scorpio I have a small short. We finally saw a down day on Friday. The
Sun was opposing the North Node that day.
In addition the following is a daily Gold chart showing
price is above the 15 day sma. Note the two indicators, Momentum is rolling
over and MACD is flat and could rollover as well.
I'm expecting a bigger move in Gold later in the year,
possibly at the end of this Primary cycle which may also be a 17 month cycle
low. The move should be up. Subscribers have the potential dates.
The price lines on the following daily Gold chart take the
longitudinal position of the heliocentric planet and converts it to price.
Venus (green) and Jupiter (blue) have provided good support and resistance.
Notice on March 11 Gold moved up and touched the Venus price
line (green) and then fell back sharply. Watch this closely next week. My small
short got a little bigger.
Crude
Feb 11 had another
lower low and is now marked a Primary cycle trough which has us starting the 5th week of a new nominal 18 week
cycle. Bear in mind there are geopolitical issues affecting crude which can
effect the price quickly and directly.
For crude, nothing has changed with the demand, supply
situation or the over flowing storage capacity or the flotilla of ships
carrying crude with no place to unload. There has been no agreement to limit
production quotas. What we do have is many banks around the world holding a
great deal of debt for energy companies. I think I'll just watch for awhile.
With the comments above under the SP500 Mars will be
entering Sagittarius and joining Saturn there on March 5th. This is a war like
configuration and being Sagittarius it would not be surprising if religion was
involved. This could also be pointing to a terrorist event.
I've been looking for Astrological aspects that hit Jupiter
or Neptune. Both are co-rulers of crude. There are a few on March 8th when the Sun opposes Jupiter,
March 16th when Jupiter trines Pluto and March 23 when Jupiter squares Saturn.
Watch these dates for moves in crude,.
Many commodities and financials should be affected by the Saturn / Neptune waning square this
year. This is a 3 pass with the last 2 occurring mid-Year and then September
2016. This is a 36 year cycle so looking back 36 years we had severe problems
with the lack of crude and interest rates went over 20%. Things are never the
same, but often close as we now have an abundance of crude and very low (negative?)
interest rates approximately 36 years later. These longer term aspects color a
period of history rather than a day, week or month.
Looking at the crude chart we see a Primary cycle low now on
Feb 11. The last cycle is an example
of a left translated cycle with the crest forming closer to the beginning
trough. Left translated cycles are bearish, they simply spend more time going
down than moving up. After 7 years of QE in the U.S. and loose monetary policy we
haven't seen many left translated cycles for some time.
It appears we are entering the 5th week of a new nominal 18 week cycle. I've mentioned before when a
Primary cycle trough is formed it is usually bullish and we typically get a
short dip cycle 2 - 3 weeks after the 18 week cycle trough. This gives traders
the opportunity to get in if they missed the original trough. Feb 24th may have been that dip. We
should now be looking for the crest of the first nominal 6 week cycle in the
new 18 week cycle.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 1st half 2016
dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in Jan) are available
for purchase.
Thank you so much for the time you put into the Blog. I am so keen on reading each week's edition, I get up in the early hours of the morning local time here to read it as soon as you upload it.
ReplyDeleteThat's great Chris. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI know there are quite a few people who are waiting for each blog. I've been trying to get them out Saturday mornings EST. Thanks again.
Hi, what are your downside targets for the SPX this week? Longer term do you expect SPX to get to the 1600 level before bouncing? Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteHi Gord, what do you think are the chances of the Fed raising rates this week? The economic data release so far supports it. For me its a coin toss, but a rate rise could be a catalyst for the primary cycle low in Gold to occur and the bearish spring stock market you mentioned.
ReplyDeleteNot sure on the FED rate rise. My negative view into the spring is based on the two long term transits mentioned in the blog and report. Jupiter square Saturn and Saturn square Neptune. April has war like aspects.
ReplyDeleteHi Gord, do you see SPX turning down before April or will it happen later? It continues to grind higher, do you see possibility of new high > 2134 (last May's high)?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
I want to see the weekly close to be lower than last weeks close.
DeleteHi Gord, do you envision more down movement in gold? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteYes I was looking for Gold to move lower this week.
Deletehi since its March already is that the "Subscription 2016" cover till June only? thc and will the lubar elicpse bring the down trend to china market? thc a lot
ReplyDeleteYes I do the forecast dates 6 months at a time. Currently the forecast dates are Jan - June 2016. July - Dec 2016 will be available late June.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteGord,are you expecting any significant move in silver,either up or down, short term?
ReplyDeleteOnly is Gold moves.
ReplyDeleteis it a good time to buy in gold? thc
ReplyDeleteLooking for a low in the next couple of weeks. A low means, lower than it is now.
ReplyDeleteDo you still expect gold to move higher later this year?
ReplyDeleteYes
ReplyDeletethen will it have a discount since only 3 months left of the forecast? thc
ReplyDeleteYou would get 6 months from the day you sign up. Anything past June , you would receive in mid to late June.
DeleteIt's $99 for 6 months.
the bubble is back!
ReplyDeleteThe economy is to weak to raise rates, yet the market indices rise. A suspicious rise !
ReplyDeleteIs that u will suggest the day of key investment of gold at the forcast thc
ReplyDeleteeven Bloomberg..................!
ReplyDeleteheadline "DOW'S FREAKISH BOUNCE"
Is that u will suggest the day of key investment of gold at the forcast thc
ReplyDelete