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Once
again this post is a little shorter as we work on the May subscribers report.
SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise I’m looking at March 27th as the Primary cycle
trough and April 13th as a double bottom.
This puts us entering the 6th week of a new Primary cycle. We should therefore be
looking for a pull back into the first 6
week cycle trough. The other possibility would be a ½ Primary cycle (9
week).
We had a descending triangle (green) on the chart. As often
happens price crashed through the upper line of the triangle, in effect gapping
twice. Those gap areas may act as support.
It should be noted Primary cycles (18 weeks) most often
start with a nominal 6 week sub-cycle. The 2nd most common start is a 1/2 Primary or
9 week sub-cycles. The nominal range for
the Primary cycle is 13 to 21 weeks. The recent high was on March 1st closing at 2,396 in the
SP500. The high om May 5 was 2,399, a new All Time High.
The last 2 months have been unusual and very difficult to
forecast.
To summarize, I’m looking for a pullback in the short term
to a 6 week or ½ Primary cycle trough. I’m expecting volatility with both ups
and downs but moving forward I’m looking for a low mid-year (June / July) but
probably June after reviewing the Astrological aspects.
Note the 15 (red) and 45 day (blue) sma’s. Price dropped
below the 15 and 45 day sma’s and has now risen above those averages.
This coming week has fewer significant Astros than what we
have seen in March and April. Nevertheless, there are some new ones and the longer-term
aspects we have mentioned still apply. So far the Cycle charts have not
resulted in unusual movement.
One we haven’t shown for some time is the Full moon to New
moon. As noted on the chart:
-
buy 3 days
before the Full Moon
-
Sell 3 days
after the New Moon
This is not 100%. I’ve found it works best in a
non-trending, sideways market.
Another cycle that has been at highs and lows is the 40 trading
day cycle *td). Next due May 24th +- 3 tds.
Other Astros coming up this week are:
May 9 Sun trine Pluto
This is the trine which occurs
approx. 19 days (cd) after Pluto turns retrograde. The market often moves up
around the exact date then pulls back.
May 10 Mercury
conjunct Uranus in fiery Aries and Full Moon
Watch for events
that could lead to open hostilities or a strong geophysical event.
This aspect
together with a Full Moon may result in a sudden unusual event.
May 11 Mars waxing square
Neptune
Often at a
crest but in the longer term not that significant.
May 12 Mars waning trine
Jupiter
Often powerful. Look for a reversal
of the current status. If still going up then start a move down and vice versa.
Look at an orb of +- 5 td’s.
There may also have an effect on
crude as we have just had Mars aspect both Jupiter and Neptune within one day.
May 15 North Node on
the position of the August 21 Solar Eclpise
Watch for events
that could lead to open hostilities or a strong geophysical event.
Mars is active by transit. Expect hostilities to increase.
Later in the month we have Venus and Mercury returning to their shadow dates and the 45 year aspect of Saturn trine Uranus.
This is in orb most of the month.
The following chart of the SP500 includes the heliocentric
Bradley indicator (blue line). There are three possible change in trend dates,
which maybe the 6 week lows on May 8th,
May 12th and May 18th.
I continue to watch the 24th
harmonic cycle (360 / 24) cycles for short term turns. The brown squares are
Sun / Saturn 15 degrees on the following daily chart.
The last hit was on May 2nd.
The next hits are May 17th then May 31. Either
could be the 6-week low.
I have added 3 price lines to this
chart.
Saturn - black
Uranus - purple
These price lines can act as
support / resistance. Also on this chart are blue vertical line which is the 24 cd (calendar day) cycle. It has
been at highs and lows.
The date of May 12 is the next 24 cd
cycle.
I brought up the August 21 Solar Eclipse in the May
market letter. This should bring significant events in that time frame. In the
mean time, I will monitor transits that may hit the location of the Solar
Eclipse. An example in this blog is May 15th when the North Node
transits over the point of the eclipse.
The path of this very important
Eclipse is seen in the following:
Following is a longer term chart of the DJIA (monthly). The red vertical lines are 180 months. The next one hits in January 2018 +- 4 months.
Gold
We put in a low in Gold on December 15th, 2016 which
was the 7.4-year cycle low in Gold
Gold most often starts a Primary cycle with a nominal 6 week
sub-cycle. This Primary cycle appears to be in a classic 3 * 6 week pattern.
Venus turning retrograde is a good signal for a move in Gold and Gold did move
sharply lower at the Venus retrograde. Gold now appears to be rolling over into
the last 6th week cycle which should take
Gold to a Primary cycle low in May.
May 11, 12 and May
19,22 all +- 2 td’s (trading days).
After the Primary low is in I’m looking for precious metals
to start moving up. Beyond technical’s and Astrology, countries like China are
reducing the rate at which they purchase US treasuries. By May / June watch
Gold increase. At the same the central banks of the world are expanding and the money is going into world markets. I am looking at precious
metals being the trade of the year.
December 15, 2016 may have been the Gold low we have been looking
for. This puts us in the 21st week
of the Primary cycle. This looks like the third and last nominal 6 week
cycle dropping into it’s low.
Gold like many markets will be affected by the Astrological
aspects from late March through April. This may push Gold a little lower or add
some restraint in the Spring period.
Gold may be affected by the Venus and Mercury shadow dates
which are May 19 and May 21 respectively.
The following chart shows a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle (red
vertical lines) which is next at May 15th +- 2 td’s. Note the MACD
and CCI indicators at the bottom of the chart. CCI appears headed up.
The next chart is a longer term
monthly chart showing the 7.4 year cycle in Gold. They are the red vertical
lines. Note that the 7.4 year cycle put in a low in late 2015. We are now in a
pull back but we are very early in the 7.4 year cycle which should be bullish
in the long term.
Crude
March 22nd
appeared to be the Primary cycle low for crude, although not confirmed. The
dramatic move down last week may result in a Primary low being formed now. This
would out us in week 23 of an older Primary cycle which started November 14,
2016.
If this is a new cycle which started on March 22nd and the
crest was April 12th this would be a very left translated cycle and
would be very bearish for crude.
We will have to watch price action over the next couple of
weeks. Remember we had Mars transits to both Jupiter and Neptune coming up this
week. Hostilities over crude? Maybe.
The blue horizontal lines are the average longitudes of the
planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto converted to price. They
should act as good support / resistance areas.
Note how the move down stopped close to the blue line and
may bounce off it.
I'm watching
all aspects to Jupiter or Neptune,
the two rulers of crude. Crude can also be affected by Pluto as it rules
“things from the ground”. Pluto turned retrograde on April 20th,
in the middle of the move down.
Following is a daily chart of crude
showing the price lines for the Sun
(green) and Pluto (black). Note that recent move down stopped near the
Pluto Price Line On May 4th then had a big range day on May 5th.
We may see price move up the green Price Lines (Sun).
double top s&p?
ReplyDeletealso,remember that the same bears who hyped the shemitah are hyping the eclipse. they were crushed!
I wasn't hyping Shemitah and no one should get crushed unless they put large money into it.
ReplyDeleteI am expecting trouble near the eclipse. Read about the Saros cycle (approx. 54 years or 1/3 of it) and the Metonic cycles (19 years).
If we look back 54 years we had the Cuban missile crisis the Kennedy assassination etc. I've written about these in detail in the past.
Information on the different planet is there on EARTHMEASURED
ReplyDelete