- Our second half 2015 forecast dates are now
available.
- Subscriptions include the forecast dates and a monthly Market letter with eMail alerts for imminent trading opportunities
- We do not use negative option billing nor do we sell email addresses
- Subscriptions include the forecast dates and a monthly Market letter with eMail alerts for imminent trading opportunities
- We do not use negative option billing nor do we sell email addresses
We will be sending ALERTS to
subscribers with specific dates when
there are imminent trading opportunities forming. The last one is posted below
this post. There was a second ALERT sent out to subscribers on Aug 24th covering most of the critical dates in September
SP500
For the SP500, cycle-wise we are
entering the 8th week of a new Primary
cycle 1
cycle that started
on July 7th. This cycle is aka, the nominal 18 week with a range of 15
to 21 weeks.
The next time band for a nominal
18 week (Primary) cycle trough is noted on the second chart of the SP500 and is
from Oct 19 through Dec 1st 2015.
There are a number of longer term cycles that may hit their troughs about the
same time. Details on the subscriber letter.
The big move down during the week of
Aug 17th makes it difficult to determine where we are in the nominal 18 week
cycle. We know we are in the 8th week
but was the low on Aug 24th the trough for the first nominal 6 week cycle of
the 18 week cycle. Quite possible, but with such violent action we could see a
1/2 Primary cycle. I'm expecting a further pullback.
Pullback or not this cycle is
still very bearish. It stared on July 7th and put in a crest on July 20th. This
is very left translated and very bearish.
Two weeks ago we made the point,
the Sun was about to begin it's translation of a T-square beginning on Aug 21
with the Sun in waning square to Saturn. In this case Saturn was the focal
point of a T-square between Jupiter, Saturn and Neptune. Jupiter and Neptune
may point to confusion but remember Saturn is still in Scorpio, debt and other
peoples money and continues in mutual reception with Pluto, making both
stronger. We may be hearing more news of debt problems or confusion surrounding
debt or financing This configuration could also be pointing to violent weather.
Saturn leaves Scorpio this month and goes into Sagittarius. This is better
stated, karmic Saturn enters spiritual Sagittarius this month. Saturn will lose
some strength as it will no longer be in mutual reception with Pluto.
The Sun's translation of this
powerful T-square continued with the Sun
conjunct Jupiter on August 26 and then Sun
opposition Neptune on August 31st. Aug 31 or Sept 1 should be a time period
for deception, trickery, lies and fakes. I'm looking at the next period of time
to continue being volatile. At this point, I look at next week as being very
volatile with the possibility of more sharp down moves although this may be
later in the month.
There is also a perigee Full Moon on August 29th. Beyond the markets the perigee
(closest pass to Earth) Full Moon can be a time of severe weather, earthquakes
/ volcanoes and general violent actions. This
Full Moon is very close to the
Jupiter / Neptune opposition. Neptune is in Pisces, the sign that it rules. It rules
water and crude among other things. This Full Moon emphasizes water. The
forming hurricane or other storm may be the cause of a great deal of water
damage via flooding.
Following is a monthly chart of
the SP500 with the 7 year cycle on it. The red bars near the bottom of the
cycle indicator show time period that the 7 year cycle is estimated to hit it's
trough.
On the following daily chart I've
noted the time period to look for a trough for this nominal 18 week cycle.
On the following chart which is
the average longitude of the planets Mars through Pluto
(blue lines) converted to price. Price
has fallen through a number of average price lines. We'll come back to this
chart when the markets settle down.
Note the other recent OPEX dates
(red circle). They have been at highs then down. Also note the red vertical
lines (Fibonacci grid) which started at the Oct 15, 2014 low. The next red
vertical line is Fib 233 td's from that October low. More details for
subscribers.
Violent events continue.
At this point, following are the
highs in the US
indexes. Also noted are the dates the 50 day simple moving average crossed the
200 day sma, the so-called death cross.
DJIA May 19, 2015 50 day sma crossed
below the 200 day sma on Aug 11th
DJTI Nov 28, 2014 50 day sma crossed
below the 200 day sma on May 26th
SP500 May 20, 2015
NYSE May 21, 2015 50 day sma crossed below the 200 day sma on Aug 11th
RUT Jun 23, 2015
COMPQX July 20, 2015
Another chart is the following daily chart of the SP500 with
a fan indicator. The dark blue fan line is 45 degrees. The starting point is
the low at March 6, 2009. The blue
45 degree line is currently at 2126.
Price has broken through this line on 3 occasions recently and has now created
some separation. This hasn't happened for some time. This is another bearish
indicator.
And I've been waiting for this weekly chart of the SP500
with the 21 and 34 weekly moving averages to turn for some time. Another
bearish indicator. The last time price broke this far below the moving averages
it was October 2011 which many have picked as the 4 year cycle low. Is this the
next 4 year cycle low forming? It's quite possible.
Some of the biggest moves in the US
markets have occurred when Saturn is in mutable signs. The mutable signs are
Gemini, Virgo, Sagittarius and Pisces. The following monthly chart of the DJIA
shows when Saturn was in mutable signs, the colored x's. As mentioned above
Saturn will be entering Sagittarius this month.
In Summary
The expected down turn started and
was more severe than anticipated. Such a move in a few days should result in
volatile environment, for some time. This should be a great environment for
those who enjoy short term trading, like me. {^_^}. The dates where the Sun
will again translate the T-square mentioned above are prime candidates for
volatility. Again they are Aug 26th and
Aug 31st. All dates are +- 2 td's unless otherwise noted. The perigee Full
Moon on August 29th is also very close to the forming Jupiter / Neptune
opposition.
An Alert has been sent to
subscribers with specific dates when big moves are most likely to occur in
September.
4 year 6.5-7 year
See the following weekly chart of
the DJIA. The red squares are the Jupiter Saturn waning square, 3 pass. The
green squares are the Saturn Neptune square. They overlap and could be pointing
to a period of dramatic change. Other items noted on the chart are Saturn in
Sagittarius, the time frame for the 3.3 year Kitchin cycle trough and the next
Primary cycle trough. I look to the periods of overlap to determine more major
market moves. I bring this up since I think there will be a stronger down move
late in 2015 or early 2016.
Gold
Gold put in a Primary cycle 1
trough on March 17th. It appears we got the nominal
18 week trough on July 24th.
We are either in the
first nominal 6 week cycle or just put in the trough for the first 6 week
cycle on Aug 27 or we are still in the first cycle which will turn out to be a
1/2 Primary cycle crest.
I'm looking at this as still being in the first nominal 6 week cycle. We may have
further to go down.
With the currency wars heating up Gold should eventually benefit.
This may not be until the next 18 week
cycle trough, that is late 2015 / early 2016. We need to see more price action
for PM's over the next few weeks. I'm expecting a pullback.
Besides the 18 week cycle there are a number of longer term
cycles due and potent aspects which have a history of turns in precious metals.
The following daily Gold chart shows the heliocentric Venus
(green) and Jupiter (blue) price lines. Gold started moving up when it hit the
27 cd (calendar day) cycle (red vertical line). It moved up sharply but has
since turned down. The next 27 cd cycle is Sept 2nd.
Crude
This coming week of Aug
31st we should be entering the 24th
week or the first of a nominal 18 week cycle which started Mar 18, 2015.
I said to watch dates near Neptune or Jupiter aspects and the Sun was conjunct Jupiter on Aug
26th. We are very late in the older nominal 18 week cycle at 24 weeks. This
currently looks like a nominal 18 week cycle low on Aug 24th. We will need to
see further price action next week.
As seen on the following chart crude dropped away from the Neptune price line (green) and bounced off the Jupiter
price line (orange), the day crude appeared to put in a trough.
The lines are 45 degrees apart. 45 degrees is (360 / 8) = 45
or also known as the 8th harmonic.
Keep in mind there has been some war news with Saudi Arabia sending ground troops into Yemen . Problems
with Saudi crude operations, plants or ports could change the price for crude
very quickly.
Another chart we have not shown for awhile is the weekly
crude chart with the 16 week (red) and 24 week (blue) cycles. Where they meet
the cycle line is green and is typically found at crests but sometimes inverts
to a trough. The next green line is early
November. 2015 close to a Neptune direct
signature.
Other items, more specifics on the SP500, Gold and crude
also US$, NatGas, Coffee reserved for subscribers. At $99.00 for a 6 month subscription, can you afford not to have it?
The 2nd half 2015
dates and subscription to the monthly letter (starting in July) are available
for purchase.
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